NBA Playoff Trends by Line Range
NBA PLAYOFF TRENDS BY LINE RANGE
Big home favorites almost always win
Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round
home favorites of 8.5 points or more
are 32-1 SU & 18-15 ATS. The only team to lose
during that span was Oklahoma City in Game
2 of the 2016 first round, to Dallas.
Bigger road favorites are a solid bet
Only two of the last 24 road favorites of 4.5
points or more have lost outright, going 22-2 SU
& 17-6-1 ATS.
Small home favorites are not a wise wager
First-round home favorites of 4 points or less
have proven to be a bad investment lately, as
over the last four playoff seasons, they are just
16-20 SU & 11-25 ATS.
Three of every four home teams win opening game
Home teams have gone 30-10 SU & 21-19 ATS
over the last five seasons.
Upsets occur in Game 1’s with lines of -7.5 or less
Of the last 19 first-round Game 1’s with home
favorites of 8 points or more, there has only
been one upset. However, in Game 1’s with
home favorites of 7.5 points or fewer, hosts
are only 7-9 SU & 6-10 ATS over the L4 playoff