Bagwell to retire? - ASTROS FANTASY EFFECT

AR182

Senior Member
#1
New reportds today are saying Jeff Bagwell may be done. I don't want to sound mean, but I'm glad to hear this report. Not because I wish harm on him, but because several of my fantasy teams will benefit from his retirement.

Willy Taveras was a gamble this year, because every game Bagwell played essentially takes Willy out of the lineup. Bags can't play anywhere besides first base. That leaves Taveras, Lance Berkman, Preston Wilson, and Jason Lane for three outfield spots. Something's gotta give, and Taveras was clearly the weakest player of the four.

I have Taveras as a $20 outfielder in 2006, so he damn well better get 622 at-bats so that I don't look stupid. The only way that could happen is if Bags definitely hangs up his cleats.

Willy's getting his value from three categories. Let me re-examine my projection on those three.

Batting average: .297. I may need to revise this number. I saw his .335 average in Double A and his summertime performance as indicators that he can do even better in 2006. I'm cherry-picking stats here, but Willy hit .324 in June through August (324 ABs). It's a stretch to write off his first two months, but this was a player with no lock on playing time who jumped up from Double A. Qualitatively (and with basic stats) he looks like he can hit .300.

Cracking under the hood a bit, I'm not so sure. He has a contact rate of around 83% and a walk rate of 4%. This is not Juan Pierre putting the bat on the ball 95% of the time. Normally, Taveras's walk and contact rates grade out to a .265 hitter. But I think that perhaps this system and PECOTA aren't giving him credit for his ability to leg out infield hits. Bottom line: he might hit anywhere from .270 to .300. I don't know. I tried.

I also have Taveras jumping up to 106 runs scored. Last year's pace with my new at-bat total would give us 86 runs, so where did the extra 20 come from? Needless to say I see him bumping his OBP past .325. More success on the base paths can be expected as well. He had just a 75% success rate in '05 - he should be able to get that up past 80% and also make more attempts. Plus, Houston's offense has to be better in 2006.

On to the 60 steals. He ran a lot more often in the minors, and some knowledge of the league plus job security should hopefully lead to many more attempts. He was regularly stealing 55 bags in 100-110 games in the minors. I know it's a lot easier down there, but he should start to figure things out.

So in conclusion I'm calling for a Podsednik-like season from Taveras, but I have to acknowledge that the margin of error here is pretty big.
 

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