Bob Weir
Preakness
Overview
The Preakness lost some of its luster with Tiz the Law not returning following his Kentucky Derby loss. The good news is there is a solid field of 11 to cap an excellent day of racing in Baltimore.
Win contenders
5 Thousand Words (6-1) was scratched in the paddock prior to the Kentucky Derby after flipping. I preferred Thousand Words over his stablemate Authentic entering the Derby and will give him another chance here. He was arguably coming into the Derby at his best; his win in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar produced a Beyer Speed Figure of 104. That figure remains hard to judge; it was only a four-horse field, Honor A.P returned to run a well beaten fourth in the Derby (with a three-point drop in his figure) and the third-place horse, Kiss Today Goodbye, returned to run in a turf stakes. There are several speed types lining up on Saturday, including the top two choices (Authentic and Art Collector). Thousand Words might be able to trip out with a stalking run and then grind them down late. I will stick with the "other" Bob Baffert horse.
3 Art Collector (5-2) and 9 Authentic (9-5) are the two logical favorites. Art Collector would have been the second choice in the Kentucky Derby if he was not forced to scratch with a minor issue. He comes in with three consecutive triple-digit Beyer figures, proving both his talent and consistency. He is proven both on the lead and from a stalking position. However, his hand might be forced as the inside speed as he probably will not want to let multiple horses cross over in front of him and then try to work out a stalking trip. This will be his toughest test yet, but he's clearly capable.
Authentic comes off the Kentucky Derby win, which was the best race of his career. A repeat of that effort makes him the horse to beat, but I have some doubts. Can he stalk effectively? Will he be hard sent to lead? I don't see him getting a clear, easy lead, and if that's the case, he's vulnerable. The only caveat is that when Bob Baffert has horses going in the right direction, they often stay that way. Authentic has never run a bad race. Must be respected.
Exotic contenders
A filly, 4 Swiss Skydiver (6-1) will try the boys again. She ran second to Art Collector in the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland. I've been against Swiss Skydiver in her last couple of races, but she keeps putting in good efforts. She also likes to be forwardly placed. I have a hard time making a case for her turning the tables against Art Collector and the Baffert duo. She just might be better than the other exotic contenders in here, but race does not set up well for her. I'm using her defensively.
There are a number of late closer types who have shown some talent and could threaten to finish underneath. 2 Mr. Big News (12-1) is an improving type who made a late run for third in Derby. He doesn't appear to have tactical speed and will try to make another late run... Trainer Steve Asmussen sends out three. 1 Excession (30-1) returns off a seven-month layoff but finished a closing second to the highly regarded Nadal when last seen. 8 Max Player (15-1) is a late runner who is probably not a Grade 1 winner right now but still can hit the board with the right setup. 10 Pneumatic (20-1) will likely be more forwardly placed than the previous two. He should get first run and is the preference of these three.
Wagering strategy
I will focus on Thousand Words. His morning-line odds look fair, and with Authentic, Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver present I think the line will hold. Anything at 5-1 or higher deserves a win bet. In these situations, I like to follow an 80/20 rule: 80 percent of the wager with the top selection and 20 percent with the backups. (I will do two exacta savers under the two favorites.)
Wagers
$50 win 5 ($50)
$10 exacta 3,9 with 5 ($20)
$2 trifecta 5 with 3,9 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,10 ($24)
$2 trifecta 5 with 3,9 with 2,3,9,10 ($12)
Total: $106
Preakness
Overview
The Preakness lost some of its luster with Tiz the Law not returning following his Kentucky Derby loss. The good news is there is a solid field of 11 to cap an excellent day of racing in Baltimore.
Win contenders
5 Thousand Words (6-1) was scratched in the paddock prior to the Kentucky Derby after flipping. I preferred Thousand Words over his stablemate Authentic entering the Derby and will give him another chance here. He was arguably coming into the Derby at his best; his win in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar produced a Beyer Speed Figure of 104. That figure remains hard to judge; it was only a four-horse field, Honor A.P returned to run a well beaten fourth in the Derby (with a three-point drop in his figure) and the third-place horse, Kiss Today Goodbye, returned to run in a turf stakes. There are several speed types lining up on Saturday, including the top two choices (Authentic and Art Collector). Thousand Words might be able to trip out with a stalking run and then grind them down late. I will stick with the "other" Bob Baffert horse.
3 Art Collector (5-2) and 9 Authentic (9-5) are the two logical favorites. Art Collector would have been the second choice in the Kentucky Derby if he was not forced to scratch with a minor issue. He comes in with three consecutive triple-digit Beyer figures, proving both his talent and consistency. He is proven both on the lead and from a stalking position. However, his hand might be forced as the inside speed as he probably will not want to let multiple horses cross over in front of him and then try to work out a stalking trip. This will be his toughest test yet, but he's clearly capable.
Authentic comes off the Kentucky Derby win, which was the best race of his career. A repeat of that effort makes him the horse to beat, but I have some doubts. Can he stalk effectively? Will he be hard sent to lead? I don't see him getting a clear, easy lead, and if that's the case, he's vulnerable. The only caveat is that when Bob Baffert has horses going in the right direction, they often stay that way. Authentic has never run a bad race. Must be respected.
Exotic contenders
A filly, 4 Swiss Skydiver (6-1) will try the boys again. She ran second to Art Collector in the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland. I've been against Swiss Skydiver in her last couple of races, but she keeps putting in good efforts. She also likes to be forwardly placed. I have a hard time making a case for her turning the tables against Art Collector and the Baffert duo. She just might be better than the other exotic contenders in here, but race does not set up well for her. I'm using her defensively.
There are a number of late closer types who have shown some talent and could threaten to finish underneath. 2 Mr. Big News (12-1) is an improving type who made a late run for third in Derby. He doesn't appear to have tactical speed and will try to make another late run... Trainer Steve Asmussen sends out three. 1 Excession (30-1) returns off a seven-month layoff but finished a closing second to the highly regarded Nadal when last seen. 8 Max Player (15-1) is a late runner who is probably not a Grade 1 winner right now but still can hit the board with the right setup. 10 Pneumatic (20-1) will likely be more forwardly placed than the previous two. He should get first run and is the preference of these three.
Wagering strategy
I will focus on Thousand Words. His morning-line odds look fair, and with Authentic, Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver present I think the line will hold. Anything at 5-1 or higher deserves a win bet. In these situations, I like to follow an 80/20 rule: 80 percent of the wager with the top selection and 20 percent with the backups. (I will do two exacta savers under the two favorites.)
Wagers
$50 win 5 ($50)
$10 exacta 3,9 with 5 ($20)
$2 trifecta 5 with 3,9 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,10 ($24)
$2 trifecta 5 with 3,9 with 2,3,9,10 ($12)
Total: $106