Madden Simulation Data Aggregated as a Stress Test vs NFL Spreads

[UriSlickson]

Hey All,

Just wanted to share this analytics tool. I ran a multitude of Madden simulations for Week 10, w/ a website I own (www.gamerhuddle.com), we take an online Madden League and automate the creation of its own website.

So I use our service create a bunch of leagues, export the data and aggregate it to create a Team Score for each upcoming match up. From there I derive a spread and totals.

It’s a compelling tool as EA has the exclusive NFL simulation license, so it is literally the only AI vs AI simulation model available. I A uses all the same stats & analytics as an algorithm out there, and has 25+ years to refine how that translates to a player rating.

If interested, more than willing to share all the data that was aggregated. Went 2/2 TNF (Dolphins & Under).

 

[Ctomemobile]

Is there adjustments for injuries? So would Kamara and Henry be pulled out of that games data?

 

[UriSlickson]

That is correct, pending the injury listed is prior to running the sims. Henry was not included in this weeks sims, but I believe Kamara was. I typically run it Weds, Thurs, or Friday depending on time availability. Sunday morning I’ll adjust the stress te play if spreads have had moves. For example the Jags/Colts over went to an under due to a 1 point change in the book O/U. It’s 15/26 going into tonight. Pretty close to historical for me on this, up to 2019 (didn’t do it 2020), it was 62.5% historically accurate vs. every spread. So a good tool.

 

[UriSlickson]

Here are the sims, if you want to take a deeper dive, you would go to week 10 here, each week prior is real life data:

Here’s the leagues that the data was derived from:

Handicapper 1:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-1

Handicapper 2:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-2

Handicapper 3:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-3

Handicapper 4:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-4

Handicapper 5:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-5

Handicapper 6:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-6

Handicapper 7:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-7

Handicapper 8:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-8

Handicapper 9:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-9

Handicapper 10:

https://gamerhuddle.com/league/handicapper-10

 

[UriSlickson]

Week 10 Sim God Results:

8/14 or 57% vs. NFL Spreads
8/14 or 57% vs. O/U’s
16/28 or 57% Total

This was based on a multitude of Madden Simulations of Week 10 NFL Matchups aggregated and used as a stress test vs bettings spreads.

 

[UriSlickson]

How to digest the data:

A sports bet w/ -110 juice (common cost for a bet) would require accuracy of 55%+ to be a winner. Sounds easy but a tough task for a gambler.

So 57% is a 2% positive gain. 2% x 4 weeks = 8% a month, 8% x 5 months (NFL season) is a 40% annualized return