"My dog won't win, but they'll cover..."

Big Jim

Senior Member
#1
Hey OSB:

Allow me to preface this thread by saying far be it for me to give anyone any capping advice. Hell, if I was any good I would be retired by now. I play for sport and fun and hope to make a few $$ along the way. So whatever methodology you use for picking winners I say go for it.

However, I am intrigued by the "dog won't win, but will cover" mindset, both in NFL and college.

Now, allow me to make the distinction between this mindset and thinking the dog will come close to winning outright (or calling for the SU upset).

I broke this stuff down into overall and point-spread subset categories and posted my findings below.

Again, make out of it what you will, but it may be helpful to somebody (pick 'em's, ties and NLs were not used as factors in my calculations):

CFB Dog loses SU since 1983: 3520 - 6953 - 229 ATS or 33.61%
CFB Dog of 0-4.5 pts loses SU since 1983: 205 - 1731 - 68 ATS or 10.59%
CFB Dog of 5-9.5 pts loses SU since 1983: 708 - 1810 - 57 ATS or 28.11%
CFB Dog of 10-14.5 pts loses SU since 1983: 816 - 1256 - 32 ATS or 39.38%
CFB Dog of 15.0-19.5 loses SU since 1983: 590 - 824 - 18 ATS or 41.72%
CFB Dog of 20 pts+ loses SU since 1983: 1201 - 1332 - 54 ATS or 47.41%


NFL Dog loses SU since 1983: 1004 - 2874 - 173 ATS or 25.89%
NFL Dog of 0-4.5 pts loses SU since 1983: 212 - 1455 - 115 ATS or 12.71%
NFL Dog of 5-9.5 pts loses SU since 1983: 521 - 1059 - 35 ATS or 32.97%
NFL Dog of 10-14.5 pts loses SU since 1983: 219 - 314 - 21 ATS or 41.09%
NFL Dog of 15.0-19.5 loses SU since 1983: 44 - 44 - 2 ATS or 50.00%
NFL Dog of 20 pts+ loses SU since 1983: 8 - 2 - 0 ATS or 80%

GLTA to all and have fun this season.
 

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