Don't know the original source of this, but it's worth a look.
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The “Outplay Factor” has become a household term as subscribers have made this powerful team strength indicator a regular part of their handicapping routine. With 5-6 weeks in the books already, we figured this would be a good time to catch up with the current Outplay Factor ratings. We listed the teams in both college and pro in order according to their current rating. We’ve also taken this week’s full betting board and calculated the theoretical spreads based on the OF and compared them to the actual lines. As you’ll see, there are a number of encouraging discrepancies.
Before we get into the current ratings though, we’d like to reintroduce the Outplay Factor to all of our readers. The term “Outplay Factor” was coined after determining that the rating being calculated in the soon to follow formula essentially indicated how well a team was either outplaying or being outplayed by its opponents. In short, it involves four different key statistics
- Offensive Points per Game: Points scored by that team
- Opponents’ Defensive Average: The combined average defensive points per game allowed for all of that teams’ opponents for the season
- Defensive Points per Game: Points against that team
- Opponents’ Offensive Average: The combined average offensive points per game scored by all of that teams’ opponents for season
Keep in mind that this particular Outplay calculation simply involves scoring. Similar calculations can be made using Yards per Play, or Total Yards stats, etc. Using scoring sets up differentials very similar to spreads, therefore, the scoring statistics were chosen as the basis for our Outplay Factor calculation. Therefore, the following is the formula for determining the Outplay Factor. For each team, determine its:
Offensive Outplay Factor = Offensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Defensive Average
then its’
Defensive Outplay Factor = Defensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Offensive Average
and finally its’
Composite Outplay Factor (COF) = Offensive Outplay Factor (OOF) – Defensive Outplay Factor (DOF)
The key to the COF formula is in subtracting the DOF, as the lower the DOF, the better the defensive performance. In fact, the good defenses have a negative DOF calculation. Therefore, when subtracting this negative number, it actually adds positively to the overall rating.
Here are the current College Football Outplay Factor Ratings as of 10/10/06, listed in order from best to worst. You’ll see that the order closely resembles the national polls. Again, this rating can be an excellent team strength indicator. An interesting thing to note on these rankings is the low positions of teams like West Virginia and Notre Dame. Perhaps these teams are ripe for upsets in the very near future.
1. OHIO ST: 30.2
2. LOUISVILLE: 27.5
3. FLORIDA: 27.2
4. MICHIGAN: 26.6
5. CALIFORNIA: 24.3
6. TENNESSEE: 22
7. LSU: 21.1
7. TEXAS: 21.1
7. USC: 21.1
10. OKLAHOMA: 19.8
11. BOISE ST: 19.1
12. CLEMSON: 17.2
13. AUBURN: 15.2
13. W VIRGINIA: 15.2
15. NEBRASKA: 15
16. TEXAS TECH: 14.1
17. MISSOURI: 13.8
18. PITTSBURGH: 13.4
19. OREGON: 13.2
20. MINNESOTA: 12.3
21. FLORIDA ST: 10.8
22. BOSTON COLLEGE: 10.7
22. HAWAII: 10.7
24. WISCONSIN: 10.5
25. AIR FORCE: 10.2
25. BYU: 10.2
27. NOTRE DAME: 9.8
28. GEORGIA TECH: 9.4
28. IOWA: 9.4
30. TEXAS A&M: 9.3
31. ALABAMA: 9.2
32. WASHINGTON ST: 8.9
33. NAVY: 8.7
34. RUTGERS: 8.1
35. TULSA: 8
36. MICHIGAN ST: 7.9
36. TCU: 7.9
38. KANSAS ST: 7.7
39. UTAH: 7.6
40. VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
41. UCLA: 7.2
42. WASHINGTON: 6.9
43. GEORGIA: 6.8
44. HOUSTON: 6.4
44. SYRACUSE: 6.4
46. OKLAHOMA ST: 6
47. MIAMI: 5.6
48. WAKE FOREST: 5.4
49. S FLORIDA: 5.2
50. MARYLAND: 5
51. E CAROLINA: 4.8
52. KANSAS: 4.7
53. ARKANSAS: 4.1
53. PENN ST: 4.1
55. KENTUCKY: 2.7
56. OREGON ST: 2.6
57. BAYLOR: 2.4
58. SOUTHERN MISS: 2.1
59. WYOMING: 2.1
60. OHIO U: 1.9
60. S CAROLINA: 1.9
62. IOWA ST: 1.7
62. NEVADA: 1.7
64. COLORADO: 1.6
65. CINCINNATI: 1
66. NEW MEXICO: 0.7
67. COLORADO ST: 0.4
67. INDIANA: 0.4
69. ARIZONA ST: 0.2
69. N ILLINOIS: 0.2
69. NC STATE: 0.2
72. VIRGINIA: 0.1
73. UTEP: -0.3
74. PURDUE: -0.5
75. BALL ST: -1
76. C MICHIGAN: -1.8
77. FRESNO ST: -3
78. W MICHIGAN: -3.1
79. VANDERBILT: -3.2
80. MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
81. KENT ST: -3.8
82. N CAROLINA: -3.9
83. ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
84. ARIZONA: -4.3
85. ILLINOIS: -4.6
86. ARMY: -4.9
87. UAB: -5
88. CONNECTICUT: -5.2
88. RICE: -5.2
90. LA LAFAYETTE: -5.7
91. C FLORIDA: -5.8
92. BOWLING GREEN: -6.2
92. MARSHALL: -6.2
94. AKRON: -6.5
94. SMU: -6.5
96. MIDDLE TENN ST: -7
96. SAN JOSE ST: -7
98. NORTHWESTERN: -7.4
99. MISSISSIPPI ST: -7.9
100. TOLEDO: -9.2
101. UNLV: -9.7
102. SAN DIEGO ST: -9.8
103. TROY ST: -10.5
104. MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
105. DUKE: -11.2
105. MEMPHIS: -11.2
107. FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
108. NEW MEXICO ST: -12
109. TULANE: -12.1
110. NORTH TEXAS: -13
111. STANFORD: -14.3
112. LA MONROE: -14.4
113. IDAHO: -15
114. LOUISIANA TECH: -17.1
115. E MICHIGAN: -18.2
116. BUFFALO: -20.4
117. UTAH ST: -22.8
118. FLA ATLANTIC: -23.2
119. TEMPLE: -27.1
These are the current pro Outplay Factor rankings heading into week six. Again, note some of the unusual figures. Unbeaten Indianapolis ranks just 13th in the NFL, and Chicago’s 18.7 rating, if it were to hold up, would surpass the ’96 Green Bay Packers rating of 15.7 as the best in the last 15 years.
1. CHICAGO: 18.7
2. SAN DIEGO: 10.1
3. DENVER: 10
4. JACKSONVILLE: 8.8
5. DALLAS: 7.5
6. PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
7. BALTIMORE: 6.1
8. KANSAS CITY: 5.1
9. NY GIANTS: 4.9
10. NEW ENGLAND: 4.4
11. CINCINNATI: 4.3
12. ATLANTA: 4
13. INDIANAPOLIS: 2.3
13. NEW ORLEANS: 2.3
15. MINNESOTA: 2.2
16. PITTSBURGH: 1.7
17. SEATTLE: 0.9
18. CAROLINA: -1.1
19. WASHINGTON: -1.5
20. BUFFALO: -1.8
21. GREEN BAY: -3.4
22. ST LOUIS: -3.7
23. ARIZONA: -4.8
24. CLEVELAND: -5.4
25. TAMPA BAY: -5.5
26. NY JETS: -6.8
27. DETROIT: -7.3
28. SAN FRANCISCO: -8.5
29. HOUSTON: -9.3
30. TENNESSEE: -11.5
31. MIAMI: -11.9
32. OAKLAND: -13.6
Using the Outplay Factor Ratings, we are able to come up with a theoretical spread in a game involving two teams, simply by comparing the teams’ individual ratings and crediting the hosts 4-points for home field advantage. For example, looking ahead to the huge season finale between Michigan and Ohio State, the host Buckeyes would be a 7.6–point favorite (30.2-26.6+4).
Using that logic, here are the theoretical Outplay Factor spreads vs. the actual for all 52 college and 13 pro games this weekend. The 4-point home-field edge is built into the home team’s rating:
Thu - 10/12 (301) TEMPLE: -27.1
7:30 PM (302) CLEMSON: 17.2
Actual Line: -44 OF Line: -44.3, Edge: CLEMSON - 0.3
Thu - 10/12 (303) VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
7:30 PM (304) BOSTON COLLEGE: 14.7
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: -7.2, Edge: BOSTON COLLEGE - 9.7
Thu - 10/12 (305) COLORADO ST: 0.4
8:00 PM (306) AIR FORCE: 14.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -13.8, Edge: AIR FORCE - 8.3
Fri - 10/13 (307) PITTSBURGH: 13.4
8:00 PM (308) C FLORIDA: -1.8
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +15.2, Edge: PITTSBURGH - 5.2
Sat - 10/14 (309) SYRACUSE: 6.4
12:00 PM (310) W VIRGINIA: 19.2
Actual Line: -25 OF Line: -12.8, Edge: SYRACUSE - 12.2
Sat - 10/14 (313) MINNESOTA: 12.3
12:00 PM (314) WISCONSIN: 14.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -2.2, Edge: MINNESOTA - 6.3
Sat - 10/14 (327) ARMY: -4.9
12:00 PM (328) CONNECTICUT: -1.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: ARMY - 1.8
Sat - 10/14 (317) WAKE FOREST: 5.4
12:00 PM (318) NC STATE: 4.2
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: +1.2, Edge: WAKE FOREST - 5.2
Sat - 10/14 (321) S FLORIDA: 5.2
12:00 PM (322) N CAROLINA: 0.1
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: +5.1, Edge: S FLORIDA - 2.6
Sat - 10/14 (311) PURDUE: -0.5
12:00 PM (312) NORTHWESTERN: -3.4
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +2.9, Edge: NORTHWESTERN - 4.1
Sat - 10/14 (315) IOWA: 9.4
12:00 PM (316) INDIANA: 4.4
Actual Line: +17.5 OF Line: +5, Edge: INDIANA - 12.5
Sat - 10/14 (325) BALL ST: -1
1:00 PM (326) C MICHIGAN: 2.2
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -3.2, Edge: BALL ST - 6.3
Sat - 10/14 (323) MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
1:00 PM (324) BUFFALO: -16.4
Actual Line: +8.5 OF Line: +5.7, Edge: BUFFALO - 2.8
Sat - 10/14 (353) FLORIDA ST: 10.8
1:00 PM (354) DUKE: -7.2
Actual Line: +23 OF Line: +18, Edge: DUKE - 5
Sat - 10/14 (329) RUTGERS: 8.1
1:30 PM (330) NAVY: 12.7
Actual Line: -1 OF Line: -4.6, Edge: NAVY - 3.6
Sat - 10/14 (379) OKLAHOMA ST: 6
2:00 PM (380) KANSAS: 8.7
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -2.7, Edge: OKLAHOMA ST - 0.3
Sat - 10/14 (337) MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
2:00 PM (338) ALABAMA: 13.2
Actual Line: -16 OF Line: -16.8, Edge: ALABAMA - 0.8
Sat - 10/14 (335) N ILLINOIS: 0.2
2:00 PM (336) W MICHIGAN: 0.9
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: -0.7, Edge: W MICHIGAN - 2.7
Sat - 10/14 (399) ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
2:00 PM (400) MEMPHIS: -7.2
Actual Line: -11.5 OF Line: +3, Edge: ARKANSAS ST - 14.5
Sat - 10/14 (331) MISSOURI: 13.8
2:00 PM (332) TEXAS A&M: 13.3
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: +0.5, Edge: TEXAS A&M - 1.5
Sat - 10/14 (333) NEBRASKA: 15
2:00 PM (334) KANSAS ST: 11.7
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +3.3, Edge: KANSAS ST - 7.2
Sat - 10/14 (343) MARSHALL: -6.2
3:00 PM (344) SMU: -2.5
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: MARSHALL - 0.3
Sat - 10/14 (341) TULSA: 8
3:00 PM (342) E CAROLINA: 8.8
Actual Line: +1.5 OF Line: -0.8, Edge: E CAROLINA - 2.3
Sat - 10/14 (339) UTAH: 7.6
3:00 PM (340) WYOMING: 6.1
Actual Line: +4 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: WYOMING - 2.5
Sat - 10/14 (355) OREGON ST: 2.6
3:30 PM (356) WASHINGTON: 10.9
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -8.3, Edge: OREGON ST - 1.2
Sat - 10/14 (349) VANDERBILT: -3.2
3:30 PM (350) GEORGIA: 10.8
Actual Line: -14.5 OF Line: -14, Edge: VANDERBILT - 0.5
Sat - 10/14 (357) UCLA: 7.2
3:30 PM (358) OREGON: 17.2
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -10, Edge: None - 0
Sat - 10/14 (363) IOWA ST: 1.7
3:30 PM (364) OKLAHOMA: 23.8
Actual Line: -19.5 OF Line: -22.1, Edge: OKLAHOMA - 2.6
Sat - 10/14 (375) CINCINNATI: 1
3:30 PM (376) LOUISVILLE: 31.5
Actual Line: -27 OF Line: -30.5, Edge: LOUISVILLE - 3.5
Sat - 10/14 (351) OHIO ST: 30.2
3:30 PM (352) MICHIGAN ST: 11.9
Actual Line: +15 OF Line: +18.3, Edge: OHIO ST - 3.3
Sat - 10/14 (381) TEXAS TECH: 14.1
3:30 PM (382) COLORADO: 5.6
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +8.5, Edge: TEXAS TECH - 1.5
Sat - 10/14 (319) MARYLAND: 5
3:30 PM (320) VIRGINIA: 4.1
Actual Line: +5 OF Line: +0.9, Edge: VIRGINIA - 4.1
Sat - 10/14 (401) LA MONROE: -14.4
4:00 PM (402) TROY ST: -6.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -7.9, Edge: LA MONROE - 0.6
Sat - 10/14 (359) TOLEDO: -9.2
4:00 PM (360) KENT ST: 0.2
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -9.4, Edge: KENT ST - 2.4
Sat - 10/14 (361) E MICHIGAN: -18.2
4:00 PM (362) BOWLING GREEN: -2.2
Actual Line: -11 OF Line: -16, Edge: BOWLING GREEN - 5
Sat - 10/14 (365) HAWAII: 10.7
5:00 PM (366) FRESNO ST: 1
Actual Line: +4.5 OF Line: +9.7, Edge: HAWAII - 5.2
Sat - 10/14 (347) CALIFORNIA: 24.3
5:00 PM (348) WASHINGTON ST: 12.9
Actual Line: +8 OF Line: +11.4, Edge: CALIFORNIA - 3.4
Sat - 10/14 (367) ARIZONA: -4.3
5:00 PM (368) STANFORD: -10.3
Actual Line: +3.5 OF Line: +6, Edge: ARIZONA - 2.5
Sat - 10/14 (369) UTAH ST: -22.8
6:00 PM (370) SAN JOSE ST: -3
Actual Line: -14 OF Line: -19.8, Edge: SAN JOSE ST - 5.8
Sat - 10/14 (397) FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
7:00 PM (398) MIAMI: 9.6
Actual Line: -28 OF Line: -20.9, Edge: FLA INTERNATIONAL - 7.1
Sat - 10/14 (383) BAYLOR: 2.4
7:00 PM (384) TEXAS: 25.1
Actual Line: -28.5 OF Line: -22.7, Edge: BAYLOR - 5.8
Sat - 10/14 (387) KENTUCKY: 2.7
7:00 PM (388) LSU: 25.1
Actual Line: -26.5 OF Line: -22.4, Edge: KENTUCKY - 4.1
Sat - 10/14 (385) IDAHO: -15
7:00 PM (386) LOUISIANA TECH: -13.1
Actual Line: -2.5 OF Line: -1.9, Edge: IDAHO - 0.6
Sat - 10/14 (373) OHIO U: 1.9
7:00 PM (374) ILLINOIS: -0.6
Actual Line: -6.5 OF Line: +2.5, Edge: OHIO U - 9
Sat - 10/14 (377) HOUSTON: 6.4
7:00 PM (378) SOUTHERN MISS: 6.1
Actual Line: -2 OF Line: +0.3, Edge: HOUSTON - 2.3
Sat - 10/14 (371) UAB: -5
7:30 PM (372) RICE: -1.2
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: -3.8, Edge: RICE - 9.8
Sat - 10/14 (345) FLORIDA: 27.2
7:45 PM (346) AUBURN: 19.2
Actual Line: +0 OF Line: +8, Edge: FLORIDA - 8
Sat - 10/14 (389) ARIZONA ST: 0.2
8:00 PM (390) USC: 25.1
Actual Line: -19 OF Line: -24.9, Edge: USC - 5.9
Sat - 10/14 (391) MICHIGAN: 26.6
8:00 PM (392) PENN ST: 8.1
Actual Line: +6.5 OF Line: +18.5, Edge: MICHIGAN - 12
Sat - 10/14 (393) TULANE: -12.1
9:00 PM (394) UTEP: 3.7
Actual Line: -12.5 OF Line: -15.8, Edge: UTEP - 3.3
Sat - 10/14 (395) NEW MEXICO: 0.7
10:00 PM (396) UNLV: -5.7
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +6.4, Edge: NEW MEXICO - 3.4
Sun - 10/15 (413) NY GIANTS: 4.9
1:00 PM (414) ATLANTA: 8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -3.1, Edge: ATLANTA - 0.1
Sun - 10/15 (405) TENNESSEE: -11.5
1:00 PM (406) WASHINGTON: 2.5
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -14, Edge: WASHINGTON - 4
Sun - 10/15 (407) HOUSTON: -9.3
1:00 PM (408) DALLAS: 11.5
Actual Line: -13 OF Line: -20.8, Edge: DALLAS - 7.8
Sun - 10/15 (417) CAROLINA: -1.1
1:00 PM (418) BALTIMORE: 10.1
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -11.2, Edge: BALTIMORE - 8.2
Sun - 10/15 (409) BUFFALO: -1.8
1:00 PM (410) DETROIT: -3.3
Actual Line: +1 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: BUFFALO - 0.5
Sun - 10/15 (403) CINCINNATI: 4.3
1:00 PM (404) TAMPA BAY: -1.5
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: +5.8, Edge: TAMPA BAY - 0.2
Sun - 10/15 (415) PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
1:00 PM (416) NEW ORLEANS: 6.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.8, Edge: NEW ORLEANS - 2.2
Sun - 10/15 (411) SEATTLE: 0.9
1:00 PM (412) ST LOUIS: 0.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.6, Edge: ST LOUIS - 2.4
Sun - 10/15 (423) KANSAS CITY: 5.1
4:15 PM (424) PITTSBURGH: 5.7
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -0.6, Edge: KANSAS CITY - 6.4
Sun - 10/15 (419) MIAMI: -11.9
4:15 PM (420) NY JETS: -2.8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -9.1, Edge: NY JETS - 6.1
Sun - 10/15 (421) SAN DIEGO: 10.1
4:15 PM (422) SAN FRANCISCO: -4.5
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +14.6, Edge: SAN DIEGO - 4.6
Sun - 10/15 (427) BOISE ST: 19.1
8:00 PM (428) NEW MEXICO ST: -8
Actual Line: +26.5 OF Line: +27.1, Edge: BOISE ST - 0.6
Sun - 10/15 (425) OAKLAND: -13.6
8:15 PM (426) DENVER: 14
Actual Line: -15 OF Line: -27.6, Edge: DENVER - 12.6
Mon - 10/16 (429) CHICAGO: 18.7
8:30 PM (430) ARIZONA: -0.8
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +19.5, Edge: CHICAGO - 9
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The “Outplay Factor” has become a household term as subscribers have made this powerful team strength indicator a regular part of their handicapping routine. With 5-6 weeks in the books already, we figured this would be a good time to catch up with the current Outplay Factor ratings. We listed the teams in both college and pro in order according to their current rating. We’ve also taken this week’s full betting board and calculated the theoretical spreads based on the OF and compared them to the actual lines. As you’ll see, there are a number of encouraging discrepancies.
Before we get into the current ratings though, we’d like to reintroduce the Outplay Factor to all of our readers. The term “Outplay Factor” was coined after determining that the rating being calculated in the soon to follow formula essentially indicated how well a team was either outplaying or being outplayed by its opponents. In short, it involves four different key statistics
- Offensive Points per Game: Points scored by that team
- Opponents’ Defensive Average: The combined average defensive points per game allowed for all of that teams’ opponents for the season
- Defensive Points per Game: Points against that team
- Opponents’ Offensive Average: The combined average offensive points per game scored by all of that teams’ opponents for season
Keep in mind that this particular Outplay calculation simply involves scoring. Similar calculations can be made using Yards per Play, or Total Yards stats, etc. Using scoring sets up differentials very similar to spreads, therefore, the scoring statistics were chosen as the basis for our Outplay Factor calculation. Therefore, the following is the formula for determining the Outplay Factor. For each team, determine its:
Offensive Outplay Factor = Offensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Defensive Average
then its’
Defensive Outplay Factor = Defensive Points per Game – Opponents’ Offensive Average
and finally its’
Composite Outplay Factor (COF) = Offensive Outplay Factor (OOF) – Defensive Outplay Factor (DOF)
The key to the COF formula is in subtracting the DOF, as the lower the DOF, the better the defensive performance. In fact, the good defenses have a negative DOF calculation. Therefore, when subtracting this negative number, it actually adds positively to the overall rating.
Here are the current College Football Outplay Factor Ratings as of 10/10/06, listed in order from best to worst. You’ll see that the order closely resembles the national polls. Again, this rating can be an excellent team strength indicator. An interesting thing to note on these rankings is the low positions of teams like West Virginia and Notre Dame. Perhaps these teams are ripe for upsets in the very near future.
1. OHIO ST: 30.2
2. LOUISVILLE: 27.5
3. FLORIDA: 27.2
4. MICHIGAN: 26.6
5. CALIFORNIA: 24.3
6. TENNESSEE: 22
7. LSU: 21.1
7. TEXAS: 21.1
7. USC: 21.1
10. OKLAHOMA: 19.8
11. BOISE ST: 19.1
12. CLEMSON: 17.2
13. AUBURN: 15.2
13. W VIRGINIA: 15.2
15. NEBRASKA: 15
16. TEXAS TECH: 14.1
17. MISSOURI: 13.8
18. PITTSBURGH: 13.4
19. OREGON: 13.2
20. MINNESOTA: 12.3
21. FLORIDA ST: 10.8
22. BOSTON COLLEGE: 10.7
22. HAWAII: 10.7
24. WISCONSIN: 10.5
25. AIR FORCE: 10.2
25. BYU: 10.2
27. NOTRE DAME: 9.8
28. GEORGIA TECH: 9.4
28. IOWA: 9.4
30. TEXAS A&M: 9.3
31. ALABAMA: 9.2
32. WASHINGTON ST: 8.9
33. NAVY: 8.7
34. RUTGERS: 8.1
35. TULSA: 8
36. MICHIGAN ST: 7.9
36. TCU: 7.9
38. KANSAS ST: 7.7
39. UTAH: 7.6
40. VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
41. UCLA: 7.2
42. WASHINGTON: 6.9
43. GEORGIA: 6.8
44. HOUSTON: 6.4
44. SYRACUSE: 6.4
46. OKLAHOMA ST: 6
47. MIAMI: 5.6
48. WAKE FOREST: 5.4
49. S FLORIDA: 5.2
50. MARYLAND: 5
51. E CAROLINA: 4.8
52. KANSAS: 4.7
53. ARKANSAS: 4.1
53. PENN ST: 4.1
55. KENTUCKY: 2.7
56. OREGON ST: 2.6
57. BAYLOR: 2.4
58. SOUTHERN MISS: 2.1
59. WYOMING: 2.1
60. OHIO U: 1.9
60. S CAROLINA: 1.9
62. IOWA ST: 1.7
62. NEVADA: 1.7
64. COLORADO: 1.6
65. CINCINNATI: 1
66. NEW MEXICO: 0.7
67. COLORADO ST: 0.4
67. INDIANA: 0.4
69. ARIZONA ST: 0.2
69. N ILLINOIS: 0.2
69. NC STATE: 0.2
72. VIRGINIA: 0.1
73. UTEP: -0.3
74. PURDUE: -0.5
75. BALL ST: -1
76. C MICHIGAN: -1.8
77. FRESNO ST: -3
78. W MICHIGAN: -3.1
79. VANDERBILT: -3.2
80. MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
81. KENT ST: -3.8
82. N CAROLINA: -3.9
83. ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
84. ARIZONA: -4.3
85. ILLINOIS: -4.6
86. ARMY: -4.9
87. UAB: -5
88. CONNECTICUT: -5.2
88. RICE: -5.2
90. LA LAFAYETTE: -5.7
91. C FLORIDA: -5.8
92. BOWLING GREEN: -6.2
92. MARSHALL: -6.2
94. AKRON: -6.5
94. SMU: -6.5
96. MIDDLE TENN ST: -7
96. SAN JOSE ST: -7
98. NORTHWESTERN: -7.4
99. MISSISSIPPI ST: -7.9
100. TOLEDO: -9.2
101. UNLV: -9.7
102. SAN DIEGO ST: -9.8
103. TROY ST: -10.5
104. MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
105. DUKE: -11.2
105. MEMPHIS: -11.2
107. FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
108. NEW MEXICO ST: -12
109. TULANE: -12.1
110. NORTH TEXAS: -13
111. STANFORD: -14.3
112. LA MONROE: -14.4
113. IDAHO: -15
114. LOUISIANA TECH: -17.1
115. E MICHIGAN: -18.2
116. BUFFALO: -20.4
117. UTAH ST: -22.8
118. FLA ATLANTIC: -23.2
119. TEMPLE: -27.1
These are the current pro Outplay Factor rankings heading into week six. Again, note some of the unusual figures. Unbeaten Indianapolis ranks just 13th in the NFL, and Chicago’s 18.7 rating, if it were to hold up, would surpass the ’96 Green Bay Packers rating of 15.7 as the best in the last 15 years.
1. CHICAGO: 18.7
2. SAN DIEGO: 10.1
3. DENVER: 10
4. JACKSONVILLE: 8.8
5. DALLAS: 7.5
6. PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
7. BALTIMORE: 6.1
8. KANSAS CITY: 5.1
9. NY GIANTS: 4.9
10. NEW ENGLAND: 4.4
11. CINCINNATI: 4.3
12. ATLANTA: 4
13. INDIANAPOLIS: 2.3
13. NEW ORLEANS: 2.3
15. MINNESOTA: 2.2
16. PITTSBURGH: 1.7
17. SEATTLE: 0.9
18. CAROLINA: -1.1
19. WASHINGTON: -1.5
20. BUFFALO: -1.8
21. GREEN BAY: -3.4
22. ST LOUIS: -3.7
23. ARIZONA: -4.8
24. CLEVELAND: -5.4
25. TAMPA BAY: -5.5
26. NY JETS: -6.8
27. DETROIT: -7.3
28. SAN FRANCISCO: -8.5
29. HOUSTON: -9.3
30. TENNESSEE: -11.5
31. MIAMI: -11.9
32. OAKLAND: -13.6
Using the Outplay Factor Ratings, we are able to come up with a theoretical spread in a game involving two teams, simply by comparing the teams’ individual ratings and crediting the hosts 4-points for home field advantage. For example, looking ahead to the huge season finale between Michigan and Ohio State, the host Buckeyes would be a 7.6–point favorite (30.2-26.6+4).
Using that logic, here are the theoretical Outplay Factor spreads vs. the actual for all 52 college and 13 pro games this weekend. The 4-point home-field edge is built into the home team’s rating:
Thu - 10/12 (301) TEMPLE: -27.1
7:30 PM (302) CLEMSON: 17.2
Actual Line: -44 OF Line: -44.3, Edge: CLEMSON - 0.3
Thu - 10/12 (303) VIRGINIA TECH: 7.5
7:30 PM (304) BOSTON COLLEGE: 14.7
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: -7.2, Edge: BOSTON COLLEGE - 9.7
Thu - 10/12 (305) COLORADO ST: 0.4
8:00 PM (306) AIR FORCE: 14.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -13.8, Edge: AIR FORCE - 8.3
Fri - 10/13 (307) PITTSBURGH: 13.4
8:00 PM (308) C FLORIDA: -1.8
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +15.2, Edge: PITTSBURGH - 5.2
Sat - 10/14 (309) SYRACUSE: 6.4
12:00 PM (310) W VIRGINIA: 19.2
Actual Line: -25 OF Line: -12.8, Edge: SYRACUSE - 12.2
Sat - 10/14 (313) MINNESOTA: 12.3
12:00 PM (314) WISCONSIN: 14.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -2.2, Edge: MINNESOTA - 6.3
Sat - 10/14 (327) ARMY: -4.9
12:00 PM (328) CONNECTICUT: -1.2
Actual Line: -5.5 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: ARMY - 1.8
Sat - 10/14 (317) WAKE FOREST: 5.4
12:00 PM (318) NC STATE: 4.2
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: +1.2, Edge: WAKE FOREST - 5.2
Sat - 10/14 (321) S FLORIDA: 5.2
12:00 PM (322) N CAROLINA: 0.1
Actual Line: +2.5 OF Line: +5.1, Edge: S FLORIDA - 2.6
Sat - 10/14 (311) PURDUE: -0.5
12:00 PM (312) NORTHWESTERN: -3.4
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +2.9, Edge: NORTHWESTERN - 4.1
Sat - 10/14 (315) IOWA: 9.4
12:00 PM (316) INDIANA: 4.4
Actual Line: +17.5 OF Line: +5, Edge: INDIANA - 12.5
Sat - 10/14 (325) BALL ST: -1
1:00 PM (326) C MICHIGAN: 2.2
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -3.2, Edge: BALL ST - 6.3
Sat - 10/14 (323) MIAMI OHIO: -10.7
1:00 PM (324) BUFFALO: -16.4
Actual Line: +8.5 OF Line: +5.7, Edge: BUFFALO - 2.8
Sat - 10/14 (353) FLORIDA ST: 10.8
1:00 PM (354) DUKE: -7.2
Actual Line: +23 OF Line: +18, Edge: DUKE - 5
Sat - 10/14 (329) RUTGERS: 8.1
1:30 PM (330) NAVY: 12.7
Actual Line: -1 OF Line: -4.6, Edge: NAVY - 3.6
Sat - 10/14 (379) OKLAHOMA ST: 6
2:00 PM (380) KANSAS: 8.7
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -2.7, Edge: OKLAHOMA ST - 0.3
Sat - 10/14 (337) MISSISSIPPI: -3.6
2:00 PM (338) ALABAMA: 13.2
Actual Line: -16 OF Line: -16.8, Edge: ALABAMA - 0.8
Sat - 10/14 (335) N ILLINOIS: 0.2
2:00 PM (336) W MICHIGAN: 0.9
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: -0.7, Edge: W MICHIGAN - 2.7
Sat - 10/14 (399) ARKANSAS ST: -4.2
2:00 PM (400) MEMPHIS: -7.2
Actual Line: -11.5 OF Line: +3, Edge: ARKANSAS ST - 14.5
Sat - 10/14 (331) MISSOURI: 13.8
2:00 PM (332) TEXAS A&M: 13.3
Actual Line: +2 OF Line: +0.5, Edge: TEXAS A&M - 1.5
Sat - 10/14 (333) NEBRASKA: 15
2:00 PM (334) KANSAS ST: 11.7
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +3.3, Edge: KANSAS ST - 7.2
Sat - 10/14 (343) MARSHALL: -6.2
3:00 PM (344) SMU: -2.5
Actual Line: -4 OF Line: -3.7, Edge: MARSHALL - 0.3
Sat - 10/14 (341) TULSA: 8
3:00 PM (342) E CAROLINA: 8.8
Actual Line: +1.5 OF Line: -0.8, Edge: E CAROLINA - 2.3
Sat - 10/14 (339) UTAH: 7.6
3:00 PM (340) WYOMING: 6.1
Actual Line: +4 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: WYOMING - 2.5
Sat - 10/14 (355) OREGON ST: 2.6
3:30 PM (356) WASHINGTON: 10.9
Actual Line: -9.5 OF Line: -8.3, Edge: OREGON ST - 1.2
Sat - 10/14 (349) VANDERBILT: -3.2
3:30 PM (350) GEORGIA: 10.8
Actual Line: -14.5 OF Line: -14, Edge: VANDERBILT - 0.5
Sat - 10/14 (357) UCLA: 7.2
3:30 PM (358) OREGON: 17.2
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -10, Edge: None - 0
Sat - 10/14 (363) IOWA ST: 1.7
3:30 PM (364) OKLAHOMA: 23.8
Actual Line: -19.5 OF Line: -22.1, Edge: OKLAHOMA - 2.6
Sat - 10/14 (375) CINCINNATI: 1
3:30 PM (376) LOUISVILLE: 31.5
Actual Line: -27 OF Line: -30.5, Edge: LOUISVILLE - 3.5
Sat - 10/14 (351) OHIO ST: 30.2
3:30 PM (352) MICHIGAN ST: 11.9
Actual Line: +15 OF Line: +18.3, Edge: OHIO ST - 3.3
Sat - 10/14 (381) TEXAS TECH: 14.1
3:30 PM (382) COLORADO: 5.6
Actual Line: +7 OF Line: +8.5, Edge: TEXAS TECH - 1.5
Sat - 10/14 (319) MARYLAND: 5
3:30 PM (320) VIRGINIA: 4.1
Actual Line: +5 OF Line: +0.9, Edge: VIRGINIA - 4.1
Sat - 10/14 (401) LA MONROE: -14.4
4:00 PM (402) TROY ST: -6.5
Actual Line: -8.5 OF Line: -7.9, Edge: LA MONROE - 0.6
Sat - 10/14 (359) TOLEDO: -9.2
4:00 PM (360) KENT ST: 0.2
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -9.4, Edge: KENT ST - 2.4
Sat - 10/14 (361) E MICHIGAN: -18.2
4:00 PM (362) BOWLING GREEN: -2.2
Actual Line: -11 OF Line: -16, Edge: BOWLING GREEN - 5
Sat - 10/14 (365) HAWAII: 10.7
5:00 PM (366) FRESNO ST: 1
Actual Line: +4.5 OF Line: +9.7, Edge: HAWAII - 5.2
Sat - 10/14 (347) CALIFORNIA: 24.3
5:00 PM (348) WASHINGTON ST: 12.9
Actual Line: +8 OF Line: +11.4, Edge: CALIFORNIA - 3.4
Sat - 10/14 (367) ARIZONA: -4.3
5:00 PM (368) STANFORD: -10.3
Actual Line: +3.5 OF Line: +6, Edge: ARIZONA - 2.5
Sat - 10/14 (369) UTAH ST: -22.8
6:00 PM (370) SAN JOSE ST: -3
Actual Line: -14 OF Line: -19.8, Edge: SAN JOSE ST - 5.8
Sat - 10/14 (397) FLA INTERNATIONAL: -11.3
7:00 PM (398) MIAMI: 9.6
Actual Line: -28 OF Line: -20.9, Edge: FLA INTERNATIONAL - 7.1
Sat - 10/14 (383) BAYLOR: 2.4
7:00 PM (384) TEXAS: 25.1
Actual Line: -28.5 OF Line: -22.7, Edge: BAYLOR - 5.8
Sat - 10/14 (387) KENTUCKY: 2.7
7:00 PM (388) LSU: 25.1
Actual Line: -26.5 OF Line: -22.4, Edge: KENTUCKY - 4.1
Sat - 10/14 (385) IDAHO: -15
7:00 PM (386) LOUISIANA TECH: -13.1
Actual Line: -2.5 OF Line: -1.9, Edge: IDAHO - 0.6
Sat - 10/14 (373) OHIO U: 1.9
7:00 PM (374) ILLINOIS: -0.6
Actual Line: -6.5 OF Line: +2.5, Edge: OHIO U - 9
Sat - 10/14 (377) HOUSTON: 6.4
7:00 PM (378) SOUTHERN MISS: 6.1
Actual Line: -2 OF Line: +0.3, Edge: HOUSTON - 2.3
Sat - 10/14 (371) UAB: -5
7:30 PM (372) RICE: -1.2
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: -3.8, Edge: RICE - 9.8
Sat - 10/14 (345) FLORIDA: 27.2
7:45 PM (346) AUBURN: 19.2
Actual Line: +0 OF Line: +8, Edge: FLORIDA - 8
Sat - 10/14 (389) ARIZONA ST: 0.2
8:00 PM (390) USC: 25.1
Actual Line: -19 OF Line: -24.9, Edge: USC - 5.9
Sat - 10/14 (391) MICHIGAN: 26.6
8:00 PM (392) PENN ST: 8.1
Actual Line: +6.5 OF Line: +18.5, Edge: MICHIGAN - 12
Sat - 10/14 (393) TULANE: -12.1
9:00 PM (394) UTEP: 3.7
Actual Line: -12.5 OF Line: -15.8, Edge: UTEP - 3.3
Sat - 10/14 (395) NEW MEXICO: 0.7
10:00 PM (396) UNLV: -5.7
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +6.4, Edge: NEW MEXICO - 3.4
Sun - 10/15 (413) NY GIANTS: 4.9
1:00 PM (414) ATLANTA: 8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -3.1, Edge: ATLANTA - 0.1
Sun - 10/15 (405) TENNESSEE: -11.5
1:00 PM (406) WASHINGTON: 2.5
Actual Line: -10 OF Line: -14, Edge: WASHINGTON - 4
Sun - 10/15 (407) HOUSTON: -9.3
1:00 PM (408) DALLAS: 11.5
Actual Line: -13 OF Line: -20.8, Edge: DALLAS - 7.8
Sun - 10/15 (417) CAROLINA: -1.1
1:00 PM (418) BALTIMORE: 10.1
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -11.2, Edge: BALTIMORE - 8.2
Sun - 10/15 (409) BUFFALO: -1.8
1:00 PM (410) DETROIT: -3.3
Actual Line: +1 OF Line: +1.5, Edge: BUFFALO - 0.5
Sun - 10/15 (403) CINCINNATI: 4.3
1:00 PM (404) TAMPA BAY: -1.5
Actual Line: +6 OF Line: +5.8, Edge: TAMPA BAY - 0.2
Sun - 10/15 (415) PHILADELPHIA: 7.1
1:00 PM (416) NEW ORLEANS: 6.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.8, Edge: NEW ORLEANS - 2.2
Sun - 10/15 (411) SEATTLE: 0.9
1:00 PM (412) ST LOUIS: 0.3
Actual Line: +3 OF Line: +0.6, Edge: ST LOUIS - 2.4
Sun - 10/15 (423) KANSAS CITY: 5.1
4:15 PM (424) PITTSBURGH: 5.7
Actual Line: -7 OF Line: -0.6, Edge: KANSAS CITY - 6.4
Sun - 10/15 (419) MIAMI: -11.9
4:15 PM (420) NY JETS: -2.8
Actual Line: -3 OF Line: -9.1, Edge: NY JETS - 6.1
Sun - 10/15 (421) SAN DIEGO: 10.1
4:15 PM (422) SAN FRANCISCO: -4.5
Actual Line: +10 OF Line: +14.6, Edge: SAN DIEGO - 4.6
Sun - 10/15 (427) BOISE ST: 19.1
8:00 PM (428) NEW MEXICO ST: -8
Actual Line: +26.5 OF Line: +27.1, Edge: BOISE ST - 0.6
Sun - 10/15 (425) OAKLAND: -13.6
8:15 PM (426) DENVER: 14
Actual Line: -15 OF Line: -27.6, Edge: DENVER - 12.6
Mon - 10/16 (429) CHICAGO: 18.7
8:30 PM (430) ARIZONA: -0.8
Actual Line: +10.5 OF Line: +19.5, Edge: CHICAGO - 9