Liberty Flames (-3.5, 52.5) at Syracuse Orange, noon ET (on ESPN3)
Hale: Syracuse is not very good, and now it is without starting quarterback Tommy DeVito, likely for the season, and star safety Andre Cisco, who has opted out after an injury. Liberty is 4-0, and Syracuse just lost to a winless Duke team, which is how you end up with an ACC team as a home underdog against an independent. But it was just a year ago that Syracuse dominated Liberty 24-0 (with coach Hugh Freeze watching from a press-box hospital bed), and that Syracuse team was bad, too. Does the QB change hurt? Maybe, but it isn't like DeVito was playing lights out either. And let's look at Liberty's four wins: an FCS opponent and teams ranked 104, 120 and 126 in our FPI. Syracuse is not good, but it's also not UL Monroe or North Alabama. The Orange will win this one outright.
Pick: Syracuse +3.5
Johnson: The news of DeVito missing the game caused a reaction in the market for this total (formerly 55.5). I'm not sure it's warranted. QB Rex Culpepper will likely be the new starter, and as much as coach Dino Babers loved DeVito, I don't know anybody else who thought DeVito was the right guy. The drop-off to Culpepper is minimal at best, and considering the Orange defense just gave up 645 yards and 38 points to Duke despite being gifted four turnovers in the game, I'm diving in to take over at a cheap price. The Flames' offense is averaging over 35 points per game with starting QB Malik Willis and his next-level rushing addition (340 yards and four touchdowns in three starts). This should be lined 57, and the loss of DeVito isn't going to scare me off of a discrepancy this big now.
Pick: Over 52.5
Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 76) at Arkansas Razorbacks, 3:30 p.m. ET (on SECN)
Kezirian: This is a situational play. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels put everything into last week's game against Alabama. Now, Ole Miss hits the road for Little Rock with what I would anticipate is minimal excitement and focus. Plus, Kiffin hinted that his team is dealing with positive COVID-19 tests, which can really hurt a thin team like Mississippi.
Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have looked much better than many expected. Feleipe Franks has already led the Razorbacks to a win at Mississippi State and they were robbed of another win by a missed call at Auburn. This line has been bet down from -3, and I agree with the move.
Pick: Arkansas +2.5
Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack (-4.5, 59.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)
Johnson: Let's start with the home team that we backed last week on the road against Virginia. The Wolfpack are now 2-0 after Devin Leary took over under center, with upset wins outright over Pittsburgh and UVA. He has looked extremely crisp against two defenses that rank No. 7 and No. 30, respectively, in defensive efficiency. Head coach Dave Doeren took his foot off of the pedal after NCST jumped out to a 24-0 lead; otherwise, the offensive numbers would have been even stronger. I'm thrilled to back a Leary-led offense again, this time against the weakest defense he will have faced this season.
But this isn't a play laying the points on the Wolfpack now at -4.5. I bet the over 59.5. The Blue Devils' offense hasn't been able to get out of its own way with turnovers this season, but it finally put things together against Syracuse and gained 645 yards on offense -- the most ever in the David Cutcliffe era (2008 to present).
My personal projection is 63.7, and I was surprised to see this move down some earlier in the week. We get two teams that rank among the top 30 in pace of play, and the weather forecast is clear. Count me in.
Pick: Over 59.5
Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5, 61) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 4 p.m. ET (on ACCN)
Connelly: Wake Forest games guarantee lots of efficiency, both for the Demon Deacons (19th in success rate) and their opponents (72nd in success rate allowed). If they can't knock Virginia off schedule and force the Cavaliers to pass, this game could slip away from them whether the Cavaliers have Brennan Armstrong (in concussion protocol) or backup Lindell Stone at quarterback.
Really, that goes both ways. Wake's own run game has been delightful -- Kenneth Walker III and Christian Beal-Smith are combining for about 150 rushing yards per game. But UVA's run defense is outstanding, and Wake isn't much better than UVA in the passing department. I think UVA is at least as likely or more likely to knock Wake off course than the other way around. Between that, SP+'s projection (Virginia by 6.2) and a favorite-friendly line, give me the Fightin' Bronco Mendenhalls.
Pick: Virginia -2.5
Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies (-12, 62), 8 p.m. ET (on ACCN)
Johnson: The Hokies have gotten progressively healthier each week as players return after a slew of quarantines forced them out early in the season. QB Hendon Hooker made his first appearance taking over during the UNC game and ignited a Tech offense that was struggling to score. It was no surprise that he led them on three touchdown drives after the Hokies had most of their success a year ago with Hooker under center as well.
Boston College is 3-1 despite being outgained this season and its inability to run the football (1.9 yards per rush this season ranks dead last in the country). The Eagles are a good regression candidate, and I will happily fade them with a Hokies team that hasn't played their best -- or healthiest -- football yet. This should be closer to a 14-point discrepancy in the point spread, and the upside with Hooker at quarterback and other pieces returning certainly favors Tech.
Pick: Virginia Tech -12
Florida International Panthers at Charlotte 49ers (-7, 53.5), 8 p.m. ET (on ESPNU)
Connelly: Florida International has an explosive run game -- D'vonte Price and Shaun Peterson Jr. have 411 yards (8.4 per carry) in just two games -- but can't pass even a little bit. Charlotte has held teams to a low completion rate but can't even slightly stop the run. If Charlotte can't properly take advantage of FIU's biggest weakness, then this game could become a bit of a track meet, and it might be difficult for the 49ers. SP+ says Charlotte by 4.1, something in the neighborhood of 32-28, which would be FIU's third straight narrow (and rather high-scoring) defeat.
Pick: Florida International +7