Season Win Total Preview: Brewers

Ajoytoy

Senior Member
#1
One of the most underused and underappreciated wagering propositions in today’s sports landscape is the over/under season win totals for Major League Baseball. Wagering on these season-long totals can enhance your season-long win totals at the end of the season as well as give you an idea of what to expect as the season progresses.



Each season there are a couple teams that you personally feel will either have a breakout year or fail to reach expectations. There may be a rookie coming through the system that is finally ready to have an impact or there may be a veteran that has finally lost his battle with father time. Either way, use your knowledge to your advantage.



We’ll look into this subject by using a team that at first glance is rather non-descript. A team you (and I) may not know much about right off the bat – no pun intended. We’ll use the Milwaukee Brewers. The preseason over/under win total for them is a seemingly reasonable and mediocre 80.5.



2005 record – 81-81 (3rd place NL Central, 19 games behind)

Key additions – RP Dan Kolb (ATL) 5.93 ERA, 11 saves; 3B Corey Koskie (TOR) .249, 11 HR

Key departures – 1B Lyle Overbay (TOR) .276, 19 HR



One of the first things you notice about the Brewers this season is the roster has remained mostly intact from last season’s 81 win team. This includes Ben Sheets (10-9, 3.33 ERA) who hopes to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2005 season that had him on the DL twice. Sheets is only 27 years old and has one of the best curveballs in the majors when healthy. He is fully capable of leading almost any pitching staff, and if he comes close to the 2.70 ERA he posted in 2004 has the potential for a Cy Young-worthy season.



Sporting one of the deeper starting pitching staffs in the Majors, Sheets is backed up in the rotation by two very capable lefties - Chris Capuano (18 wins, 3.99 ERA) and Doug Davis (3.84 ERA, 211 Ks) – each starting 35 games in 2005. Tomo Ohka (11 wins, 4.04 ERA) grabs the fourth spot, having come over from the Nationals midway through the 2005 campaign. The fifth spot in the rotation appears to be up for grabs with 35-year-old vet Rick Helling being the leading candidate to fill the spot.



The bullpen is anchored by 2005’s most pleasant surprise Derrick Turnbow, (1.74 ERA, 39-for-43 save opp., 7-1) who throughout the season proved to be one of the top closers in the game. Though it’s unfair to ask for a copy of last year’s results, he appears to be a more-than-reliable closer for years to come. Milwaukee also features impressive depth in their bullpen with former closer Kolb and youngster Jose Capellan getting the ball to Turnbow as well as Matt Wise and Dana Eveland.



On the offensive end, outfielders Carlos Lee (32 HR, 114 RBI), Brady Clark (.306) and fan favorite Geoff Jenkins (.292, 25 HR) lead a team that hopes to improve on its .259 team batting average. The big league experience gained in 2005 should help young infielders Prince Fielder (.288 in 39 games), J.J. Hardy (.247, 124 games) and Rickie Weeks (.239, 96 games). 3B Koskie comes over from the junior circuit to add a veteran presence and steady defense.



The coaching staff is led by Ned Yost, a seemingly patient and optimistic manager who is a good fit for his young ballclub. The management of the team is in capable hands and if the Brewers are on the cusp of a playoff berth, GM Doug Melvin will make a move if necessary to get the team over the hump.



Knowing all this, you have to wonder why the Brewers are tagged for 80.5 wins – half a win less than last year’s total. There are two or three probable reasons for this. The Brewers have a long history of losing and some may feel they are just not able to improve on last year’s performance, when they increased their 2004 win total by 14 games. Also, they are still in the same division as 103-game winners, the St. Louis Cardinals and the NL Champion Houston Astros. Lastly, and this is the debatable portion, Milwaukee is not known as a mecca for sports action. Without a lot of high-rolling, positive-thinking, home team fans to drive up the number – the bookmakers may just be playing it safe with a mediocre number that should garner some action on both sides of the total.



Now you have all this knowledge. You know more about the Brewers than most – and that may be enough to add to your season-ending win totals. At worst – it can give you a new team to root for as the season goes along.
 

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