College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: Stanford Steve Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 16 from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (2-1-1 last week, 26-16-1 overall)
The Bear (0-2-1, 22-20-1)
The plays
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-10.5, 60) vs. No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
(ACC championship at Charlotte, N.C.)
Stanford Steve: Clemson has gotten everything it has wanted since losing to the Irish earlier this year in overtime at South Bend without Trevor Lawrence. I still think the Irish will win the game. We will sprinkle a little on the money line, but we will take the points as the official play.
Pick: Notre Dame +10.5 (Notre Dame 31, Clemson 29)
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 58) vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones
(Big 12 championship at Arlington, Texas)
Stanford Steve: Here's another Power 5 championship game where the team looking to avenge an earlier loss is favored to win the rematch (Clemson is the other). I think the wrong team is favored. I am not buying into the idea that Oklahoma "has everything figured out" and will be the Big 12 champ. I'll take the Clones and the points.
Pick: Iowa State +5.5 (Iowa State 34, Oklahoma 31)
Oregon Ducks at No. 13 USC Trojans (-3, 64)
(Pac-12 championship)
Stanford Steve: Remember last year when the Utah Utes were a win in the Pac-12 title game away from making the College Football Playoff? Then they went out and played their worst game of the year in a spot where they had the most eyeballs on them in any of their games. It feels like USC is getting plenty of love in the general landscape of the sport, and I would be the first person to tell you the Trojans should be ranked higher. But this line doesn't make sense. It feels like the undefeated Men of Troy should be giving more points. We'll take the Ducks and buy it to 3.5 points.
Pick: Buy Oregon to +3.5 (USC 38, Oregon 35) (WINNER)
Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls (-13.5, 67.5)
The Bear: Buffalo has been a dominant team spearheaded by a powerful running attack. But it also benefited from being on the weaker side of the MAC-- the one with Akron and Bowling Green it its division. Ball State has finally gotten some breaks this year and easily could be undefeated as well. Mike Neu has a veteran team and is probably the best rush defense Buffalo has faced this year. The outright upset will be tough, but I do think Ball State will be able to get a few stops and score enough to cover the number here.
Pick: Ball State +13.5 (WINNER)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5, 54) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Bear: This number jumped off the page to me when I saw it. I couldn't believe Nebraska was laying this many points. The Huskers haven't been a good favorite at all, might be faced with travel issues because of a storm in the northeast and seem to be in a bad spot here. I'll side with the State University of New Jersey, which if it wins four games would be ecstatic and a remarkable feat under Greg Schiano. Rutgers has showed up every game and Nebraska transfer QB Noah Vedral will want to play well against his former team. I think the intangibles and coaching edge land on the side of the Scarlet Knights.
Pick: Rutgers +6.5 (LOSS)
Air Force Falcons (-2.5, 37) at Army Black Knights
The Bear: I'm guessing people are expecting a letdown for Army on the heels of the shutout win over Navy and might be comparing scores to the 40-7 win Air Force had over the Midshipmen. But that's hard to do, being the weather was brutal in West Point last week and the CIC trophy is on the line. I don't really understand the 2.5-point move to Air Force here and will happily take Army and the points.
Pick: Army +2.5
The Bear's money-line parlay
$100 returns $98.65 Penn State -650
Alabama -900
Texas A&M -600
Ohio State -1600
Utah -400
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round-robins and parlays
Rutgers +200
Army +120
*Iowa State +170
*Notre Dame +310
*San Jose State +195
*My sense is these three underdogs either win outright or the favorite covers
Stanford Steve's special Week 16 3-team, 10-point teaser
Wisconsin -2
Rutgers +16.5 (W)
Utah -.5
Bear Bytes
• Since 2015, there have been 23 Power 5 conference championship games. Just two underdogs have won outright: Oregon beat Utah last year and Penn State defeated Wisconsin in 2016. Compare that to the Group of Five, where in the last two years four dogs have won outright in 10 games. It should be noted that three of the underdogs were by a field goal or less. Favorites are 5-12-1 ATS in Group of Five conference title games in the last four years.
Big 12 championship: No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 58) vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones
• Under Matt Campbell, the Cyclones have covered all five games vs. Oklahoma, four as a double-digit dog. On average, the Cyclones were an 18-point underdog and have two wins and have covered by an average of 16.7 PPG in those five games.
Air Force (-2.5, 37) at Army
• In the past nine years, the favorite is 1-7-1 ATS with four outright losses in this rivalry.
American Athletic championship: No. 23 Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No.9 Cincinnati Bearcats (-14, 45.5)
• In its last 11 games as an underdog, Tulsa is 9-2 ATS with four outright wins. Over that span, Tulsa has been a double-digit dog nine times and has two wins and three other single-digit losses. Last year the Bearcats were a 16-point favorite over Tulsa at Nippert Stadium and won by 11. The Golden Hurricane are also 7-0 ATS vs. ranked opponents since 2018.
Big Ten championship: No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-205., 57)
• The Buckeyes have been a 20-point favorite 13 times under Ryan Day and are 8-5 ATS and have seen just one game decided by less than 11 points (42-35 vs. Indiana earlier this year).
ACC championship: Clemson (-10.5, 60) vs. Notre Dame
• Clemson is currently a 10.5-point favorite over Notre Dame. That's the exact same spread from the 2018 semifinal game where Clemson beat Notre Dame 30-3. Clemson has won 41 straight games as a double-digit favorite dating back to the 2017 loss at Syracuse. Just four of the 41 games were decided by single digits.
Here is your guide to Week 16 from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (2-1-1 last week, 26-16-1 overall)
The Bear (0-2-1, 22-20-1)
The plays
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-10.5, 60) vs. No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
(ACC championship at Charlotte, N.C.)
Stanford Steve: Clemson has gotten everything it has wanted since losing to the Irish earlier this year in overtime at South Bend without Trevor Lawrence. I still think the Irish will win the game. We will sprinkle a little on the money line, but we will take the points as the official play.
Pick: Notre Dame +10.5 (Notre Dame 31, Clemson 29)
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 58) vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones
(Big 12 championship at Arlington, Texas)
Stanford Steve: Here's another Power 5 championship game where the team looking to avenge an earlier loss is favored to win the rematch (Clemson is the other). I think the wrong team is favored. I am not buying into the idea that Oklahoma "has everything figured out" and will be the Big 12 champ. I'll take the Clones and the points.
Pick: Iowa State +5.5 (Iowa State 34, Oklahoma 31)
Oregon Ducks at No. 13 USC Trojans (-3, 64)
(Pac-12 championship)
Stanford Steve: Remember last year when the Utah Utes were a win in the Pac-12 title game away from making the College Football Playoff? Then they went out and played their worst game of the year in a spot where they had the most eyeballs on them in any of their games. It feels like USC is getting plenty of love in the general landscape of the sport, and I would be the first person to tell you the Trojans should be ranked higher. But this line doesn't make sense. It feels like the undefeated Men of Troy should be giving more points. We'll take the Ducks and buy it to 3.5 points.
Pick: Buy Oregon to +3.5 (USC 38, Oregon 35) (WINNER)
Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls (-13.5, 67.5)
The Bear: Buffalo has been a dominant team spearheaded by a powerful running attack. But it also benefited from being on the weaker side of the MAC-- the one with Akron and Bowling Green it its division. Ball State has finally gotten some breaks this year and easily could be undefeated as well. Mike Neu has a veteran team and is probably the best rush defense Buffalo has faced this year. The outright upset will be tough, but I do think Ball State will be able to get a few stops and score enough to cover the number here.
Pick: Ball State +13.5 (WINNER)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5, 54) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Bear: This number jumped off the page to me when I saw it. I couldn't believe Nebraska was laying this many points. The Huskers haven't been a good favorite at all, might be faced with travel issues because of a storm in the northeast and seem to be in a bad spot here. I'll side with the State University of New Jersey, which if it wins four games would be ecstatic and a remarkable feat under Greg Schiano. Rutgers has showed up every game and Nebraska transfer QB Noah Vedral will want to play well against his former team. I think the intangibles and coaching edge land on the side of the Scarlet Knights.
Pick: Rutgers +6.5 (LOSS)
Air Force Falcons (-2.5, 37) at Army Black Knights
The Bear: I'm guessing people are expecting a letdown for Army on the heels of the shutout win over Navy and might be comparing scores to the 40-7 win Air Force had over the Midshipmen. But that's hard to do, being the weather was brutal in West Point last week and the CIC trophy is on the line. I don't really understand the 2.5-point move to Air Force here and will happily take Army and the points.
Pick: Army +2.5
The Bear's money-line parlay
$100 returns $98.65 Penn State -650
Alabama -900
Texas A&M -600
Ohio State -1600
Utah -400
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round-robins and parlays
Rutgers +200
Army +120
*Iowa State +170
*Notre Dame +310
*San Jose State +195
*My sense is these three underdogs either win outright or the favorite covers
Stanford Steve's special Week 16 3-team, 10-point teaser
Wisconsin -2
Rutgers +16.5 (W)
Utah -.5
Bear Bytes
• Since 2015, there have been 23 Power 5 conference championship games. Just two underdogs have won outright: Oregon beat Utah last year and Penn State defeated Wisconsin in 2016. Compare that to the Group of Five, where in the last two years four dogs have won outright in 10 games. It should be noted that three of the underdogs were by a field goal or less. Favorites are 5-12-1 ATS in Group of Five conference title games in the last four years.
Big 12 championship: No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 58) vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones
• Under Matt Campbell, the Cyclones have covered all five games vs. Oklahoma, four as a double-digit dog. On average, the Cyclones were an 18-point underdog and have two wins and have covered by an average of 16.7 PPG in those five games.
Air Force (-2.5, 37) at Army
• In the past nine years, the favorite is 1-7-1 ATS with four outright losses in this rivalry.
American Athletic championship: No. 23 Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No.9 Cincinnati Bearcats (-14, 45.5)
• In its last 11 games as an underdog, Tulsa is 9-2 ATS with four outright wins. Over that span, Tulsa has been a double-digit dog nine times and has two wins and three other single-digit losses. Last year the Bearcats were a 16-point favorite over Tulsa at Nippert Stadium and won by 11. The Golden Hurricane are also 7-0 ATS vs. ranked opponents since 2018.
Big Ten championship: No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-205., 57)
• The Buckeyes have been a 20-point favorite 13 times under Ryan Day and are 8-5 ATS and have seen just one game decided by less than 11 points (42-35 vs. Indiana earlier this year).
ACC championship: Clemson (-10.5, 60) vs. Notre Dame
• Clemson is currently a 10.5-point favorite over Notre Dame. That's the exact same spread from the 2018 semifinal game where Clemson beat Notre Dame 30-3. Clemson has won 41 straight games as a double-digit favorite dating back to the 2017 loss at Syracuse. Just four of the 41 games were decided by single digits.