Steve Davidowitz Racing Review

Ajoytoy

Senior Member
#1
RACE #3.
$2 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (GRADE I)
2 YR OLD FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES.RACE OVERVIEW: While the top two favorites have proven the most to date and might even dominate, this event is filled with plenty of lightly raced youngsters with significant room for improvement. A few will go to the post at sky high prices. A fast early pace likely.
PP Horse. . . . . . . .. . . .Jockey. . . . . . . . . . .My Odds Line. . .Comments.
1 DREAMING OF ANNA. . . Rene Douglas. . . 3-1 . .Won career debut on dirt in May at Arlington Park, then flashed a solid finishing kick in two stakes wins on grass in Canada, including a mile score with a last quarter clocked in 23 flat that earned the field’s best overall Beyer Fig . Excellent Polytrack workouts for this, good post, good rider, very serious contender in a race with plenty cheap speed.
2 SUTRA. . . Mike Luzzi. . . 25-1. . .Just missed when second in the Arlington Lassie and won a slowly run Frizette at Belmont with benefit of an early pace meltdown.
3 CASH INCLUDED. . . Corey Nakatani. . .5-2. . .Solid form in California and improved going this distance in the Oak Leaf stakes to earn the best Beyer Speed Figure on DIRT in the field. Also trained superbly on a Polytrack surface for this and figures to get a good stalking trip without losing ground.
4 OCTAVE. . . Garrett Gomez. . . 6-1. . .Todd Pletcher trainee was good in Graded NY sprints and is bred to get stronger at longer distances. But, she did have a perfect trip while only gaining slowly for her dead-heat second with stablemate Featherbed in the 7 furlong Matron. Needs to improve smartly to win here.
5 SHE'S INCLUDED. . . Victor Espinoza. . .15-1. . .Poor try in the slow Alcibiades in first outing around two turns (on polytrack) ; major improvement needed.
6 BEL AIR BEAUTY. . . Fernando Jara. . .12-1. . .Rallied to win the slow Alcibiades. Recent workouts over the track have not been encouraging. A likely bet against.
7 COTTON BLOSSOM. . . John Velazquez. . .12-1. . .First and second in two Graded sprint stakes at Saratoga, then made a decent move on the turn before weakening in the Alcibiades at this distance, Oct. 6. Pletcher trained, two encouraging Polytrack workouts since raced; guessing improvement, consider carefully.
8 LILLY CARSON. . . Cornelio Velasquez. . . 25-1. . .Got in from the Also Eligible list. Won career debut and was part of the fast pace when third in the sub par Frizette at one mile Oct. 14. Likely to be part of the pace here.

9 ADHRHYTHM. . .Edgar Prado. . . 15-1. . .Won three straight over softer in Florida, including her latest at this distance. Good jockey, can’t eliminate.
10 HER MAJESTY. . . Julien Leparoux. . . 12-1. . .Rallied despite some trouble for third in the Alcibiades on Polytrack at Keeneland. Worked sensationally on the Polytrack with blinkers added for trainer Patrick Biancone and is another useful longshot capable of winning this. May spice up the Exotic wagers.
11 SATULAGI. . .John Egan. . . 20-1. . .European filly with respectable form in active campaign of nine outings might use her edge in experience to pass several in the late going. Unknown rider John Egan comes to Kentucky for the first time with good reports from my British contacts. Still, seems hard to support.
12 APPEALING ZOPHIE. . . Shaun Bridgmohan. . . 15-1. . .Very fast front running type must cross over from the outer post to set the pace. Three works since raced and was hampered somewhat by the anti-speed bias that existed at Keeneland for the first Polytrack meet. Nevertheless, might prefer shorter race.
13 QUICK LITTLE MISS. . . Jon Court. . . 30-1. . .Slow breaking miss won a two turn sprint stakes at Fairplex Park on September 14 and came back two weeks later to finish well for OK third at 37-1 in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita (won by the morning line favorite in here, Cash Included). Working well, but must overcome tough post to threaten.
14 GATORIZE Mark Guidry 30-1. . .Won first two sprints, then was an even fifth in the 14 horse Alcibiades at Keeneland. Another low profile longshot in a race filled with similar. Not hopeless, but would be big surprise.
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RACE #4.
POST TIME 1:10 pm, EST.
$2 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (GRADE I)
2 YR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS; 1 1/16 MILES
RACE OVERVIEW: A potentially great horse race with a half dozen closely matched young horses, some that may be back here in six months to compete in the Kentucky Derby.
PP Horse . . . . . . . . . . . . .Jockey. . . . . . .Odds. . . . .Comment.
1 STREET SENSE. . . Calvin Borel. . . 20-1. . .Carl Nafzger trained colt is following a positive workout pattern similar to Unbridled, whom Nafzger trained to win the 1990 Kentucky Derby and Belmont stakes. Developing at a slightly faster rate; might surprise; but win or lose must watch his performance here.
2 STORMELLO. . . Kent Desormeaux. . . 10-1. . .Surprise winner of the Norfolk, showed a new dimension winning from off the pace in his first outing beyond 7 furlongs. Good works on Polytrack at Hollywood and galloped well over the Churchill strip. Dangerous longshot from good post and jockey Kent Desormeaux loves him.
3 SCAT DADDY. . . John Velazquez. . . 4-1. . .Somewhat underappreciated multiple Graded stakes winner, trained by Todd Pletcher. Finished strongly to out game the oversized and an extremely promising NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ in the 1-mile Champagne stakes at Belmont. Scat Daddy is a son of (2001 BC Juvenile winner) Johannesburg. Training very well, seems likely to appreciate more distance and is one of the key horses in this field.
4 KING OF THE ROXY. . . Edgar Prado. . .12-1. . .Another trained by the ever present Todd Pletcher, who entered 18 horses in this year’s BCup! This is one of his three in here. Been good in sprint stakes, but this distance may be his absolute limit.
5 C P West. . . Rafael Bejarano. . .15-1. . .Lightly raced Nick Zito trained colt was close to King of the Roxy in the 7 furlong Futurity and has acted more precocious than most 2 yr olds trained by Zito. Should run well from good post but will need very careful rating to handle the distance.
6 PRINCIPLE SECRET. . . Victor Espinoza. . . 5-1. . .Very gritty speed type with a touch of class who just failed to last when caught by longshot STORMELLO in the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita, Oct. 8. . .Did not gallop smoothly over the track first time around, but might simply have been off his game shipping in from California. Anyway, even if he’s 100 percent, he surely will have to overcome serious speed pressure in this field.
7 GREAT HUNTER. . . Corey Nakatani. . . 4-1. . .Trainer won this race last year with Stevie Wonderboy and this one improved on cue to win the Breeders’ Futurity over CIRCULAR QUAY when stretched out in distance. Looked very good galloping over the track and figures right there.
8 TEUFLESBERG. . . Robby Albarado. . . 30-1. . .Speed type thrives on activity. Won a sprint stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 22 and is another who figures to enforce a red hot, perhaps suicidal pace.
9 CIRCULAR QUAY. . . Garrett Gomez. . . 3-1. . .Stretch running winner of three sprints prior to a spotty performance when second to GREAT HUNTER in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile on the Polytrack at Keeneland. Has enormous potential as a Kentucky Derby prospect, but also has a mind of his own and sometimes seems to have no interest in running. Might need blinkers for his best down the road, but even without them at this stage, looms a serious late threat in a great, wide open contest.
10 PEGASUS WIND. . . Mike Luzzi. . .12-1. . .Improving speed type, might not win this, but he sure will make the front runners work extremely hard, which should set the race up for the strongest finishers.
11 GOT THE LAST LAUGH. . . Rene Douglas. . . 25-1. . . Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott rarely gets a good 2 yr old prospect to work with. Scored dead heat win in the Arlington Washington Futurity on sloppy track then was nowhere in the Champagne at Belmont. Seems slightly overmatched right now.

12 U D GHETTO. . . Mike Smith. . . 50-1. . .Won two of four including the Kentucky Club Juvenile on the Polytrack at Turfway, but must improve his Beyer Speed Figure by about 15 points (seven lengths) to threaten the best in here.
13 MALT MAGIC. . . Jon Court. . . 30-1. . .Was badly outrun in the Norfolk, after winning prior at Santa Anita with front running score. Bad post for a speed type.
14 SKIP CODE. . . Patrick Husbands. . . 30-1. . .Shows an improving form cycle after winning a pair of route races on the Woodbine Polytrack. Also worked well since latest, but is hard to gauge in US debut against much better from such a difficult post.
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RACE #5 POST TIME 1:55 EST
$2.2 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF (GI),
FILLIES AND MARES, 3 YR OLDS AND UP, 1 3/8 MILES (TURF)
RACE OVERVIEW: The top two morning line choices seem best of a large pack of stretch running types. But there could be traffic issues to split the favorites.
PP Horse . . . . . . . . . . . .Jockey. . . . . . . . . . .Odds. . . Comment.
1 DANCING EDIE. . . . Corey Nakatani. . . .30-1. . .Speed type should set the pace for more than 7 furlongs, but seems unlikely to hold off the best closers in the field.
2 OUIJA BOARD (GB). . . .Frankie Dettori. . . . 7-5. . . Outstanding European mare with $4.5 million bankroll won this race in 2004 and finished a good second last year. Has had a great 2006 campaign and will take plenty beating in this spot at relatively short odds.
3 MAURALAKANA (FR). . . Julien Leparoux. . . 15-1. . .Rallied somewhat for a pair of in the money finishes in her two US outings at shorter distances; worked strongly over Polytrack since and just might appreciate the extra yardage at generous odds.
4 FILM MAKER. . .. . . . . . .Edgar Prado. . . . . . 8-1. . . Steady stretch runner was right there with HONEY RYDER in her latest. Did well in this race in 2004 and 2005 and recently outworked her male stable mate BETTER TALK NOW to serve notice that she is ready for a top effort.

5 HONEY RYDER. . . . . . .John Velazquez. . . . 6-1. . . Returned to top form in latest narrow score over Film Maker and has won four of six in 2006. Certainly eligible to earn a share.
6 QUIET ROYAL. . . . . . . . Olivier Pesslier. . . .30-1. . .3 yr old Euro import was third, while closing fastest of all right behind MAURALAKANA in the QEII at Keeneland in first start for Todd Pletcher after a disappointing campaign. Another late threat in a field loaded with high class stretch runners.
7 WAIT A WHILE. . . . . . . . .Garrett Gomez. . . . .5-2. . . Extraordinary 3 yr old filly turf ace has won four grass races in four attempts on both coasts very impressively and looms a formidable rival to OUIJA BOARD that may deserve a slim edge on sheer talent and potentially respectable odds.
8 MY TYPHOON (IRE). . . Robby Albarado. . . . .20-1. . . Has respectable early speed for this distance and is sure to press Dancing Edie. Mott trained; rates chance to take it all at big price if the pace is moderate.
9 SATWA QUEEN (FR). . .Thierry Thulliez. . . .. .12-1. . . Good overall form in Europe and is eligible to be a surprise package in here.
10 GERMANCE. . . . . . .Christophe Soumillon. .. .20-1. . .Also closed ground to be fourth when favored in the QEII. That was her US debut. Must improve a lot to win this.
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RACE #6 POST TIME 2:35 PM EST
$2.13 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT (GRADE I)
3 YR OLDS AND UP, SIX FURLONGS
RACE OVERVIEW: Outstanding field of very fast horses. Although one of the speed types might shake loose, the likely pace battle should set the race up for the strongest finishers in the field.

PP Horse . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .Jockey. . . . . . . . .Odds. . . . . Comment.
1 THOR'S ECHO. . . . . . . .Corey Nakatani. . . .. .15-1. . .. . .Good sprinter was second in the $2 million Dubai sprint in March and was patiently handled to come back to form in time for this. Was second to BARDONARO in the swiftly run Ancient Title last month and his lone workout for this was positive. Can’t eliminate.
2 FRIENDLY ISLAND. . . .. . . .Ramon Dominguez. . . 35-1. . .Pletcher trained 5 yr old with some stalk-n-go races and some from much further back, was second to BORDONARO in his best race at Oaklawn Park in April. Prepped for this in a one mile race on the grass. Best needed to crack the Tirifecta.

3 LEWIS MICHAEL. . . . . . . .Rene Douglas. . . . 75-1. . .Made decent bid in 7 furlong Perryville on Keeneland Polytrack, Oct. 13, but seems overmatched in this spot.
4 HENNY HUGHES. . . . . . . .John Velazquez. . . 2-1. . .Very fast 3 yr old has been well managed to get here with three highly rated, well spaced races, including the Vosburgh at Belmont over some of the better older horses in this field. The betting favorite, but must beat a strong group.

5 AREYOUTALKINTOME. . . Victor Espinoza. . ..35-1. . .Late running sprinter was decent second to KELLY’S LANDING in the Phoenix Handicap on the Keeneland Polytrack, last month. Another who needs to fire best to get into top few.
6 BORDONARO. . . . . . . .Patrick Valenzuela. . . . 3-1. . . Been a win machine this year and his most recent victory in the Ancient Title with a 119 Beyer Speed Figure was the best 2006 Fig earned by any horse in this field. Worked twice since that effort and is the one to beat on the lead or close to it. PVal has never lost on this horse.

7 NIGHTMARE AFFAIR. . . . Edgar Prado. . . . 30-1. . . .Active campaigner has won four of 10 this year, but has never handled this kind. Lifetime best needed to crack the Trifecta.
8 POMEROY. . . . . . . . . . . . Eddie Castro. . . . 8-1. . . . .Good overall form, including a solid win in the 7 furlong Forego at Saratoga. Five steady workouts for this in October and should get good stalk-n-go trip. Upset threat.
9 TOO MUCH BLING. . . . Garrett Gomez. . . .8-1. . .Beautifully managed 3 yr old with solid sprint form and sharp recent works for Bob Baffert, has hot stakes rider and a good post for his stalk-n go style. A serious, somewhat underrated contender.
10 WAR FRONT. . . . . . . . .Jose Santos. . . . .12-1. . .Allen Jerkens trainee will try to break a longstanding jinx for one of the best trainers in racing history. Jerkens’ horses seldom win when they ship out of NY. This one was good second in last two Grade-1 sprints behind HENNY HUGHES and POMEROY. By design, trained extremely fast at Belmont for this. Consider in exotics

11 SIREN LURE. . . . . . . . Alex Solis. . . . . . .10-1. . .Strong stretch running threat might prefer 7 furlongs, but the expected hot early pace should help his chances. The only question I have is the lackluster workout he put in over the track last weekend. Must be at his best to score.
12 MALIBU MINT. . . . . . Kyle Kaenel. . . . . . 30-1. . .4 yr old filly has won three of 10 with good finishing punch and that should help her pass some in here. Seems up against it against these hard knocking male rivals.

13 ATTILA'S STORM. . .Cornelio Velasquez. . .20-1. . . Set a brisk pace when fourth to stretch running Silver Train in this race last year and returned after 10 months on the sidelines to set a quick pace when third in the Vosburgh at Belmont Oct. 7. Training forwardly and may prove to be harder to catch than most expect.
14 KELLY'S LANDING . . . . Rafael Bejarano. . . . .. 15-1. . . Holds the Churchill Downs track record for 6 furlongs, set last year. Was off form most of 2006 until he won the Phoenix on the Polytrack at Keeneland last month. Training very well now, money chance.
 

Ajoytoy

Senior Member
#2
RACE #7. POST TIME 3:15 PM, EST
$2.17 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP MILE (GRADE I)
3 YR OLDS AND UP, ONE MILE ON THE TURF
RACE OVERVIEW: Foreign horses usually are tough customers in BC turf races. The best miler in Europe this year was GEORGE WASHINGTON, who is ambitiously placed in the $5 million BC Classic. The best Euros left in the field are hard to separate, while the best American miler has been the 4 yr old filly GORELLA, a powerful finisher who was third in this race last year after suffering severe interference through the stretch. The other top American ARAGON has never faced this caliber.
PP Horse. . . . . … … … … . .. Jockey. . . . . . .. . . .Odds. . . .Comment
1 AD VALOREM. . . . . . . . . Jamie Spencer. . . . 25-1. . . .Was ninth in this race last year and has had a so-so campaign in Europe this year. Prepped for this with a strong third in the swiftly run Woodbine Mile. Not impossible from great post and the jockey surely would like to make amends for a half dozen poor rides in America through the years.
2 SILENT NAME (JPN). . . . .Victor Espinoza. . . . . .25-1. . .Won a pair of mile races in California earlier in the season and was extremely wide when seventh as the betting favorite in the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland. Can do better than that.
3 ARAAFA (IRE). . . . . . . . . .John Velazquez. . . . . . .4-1. . . . European mile specialist traded decisions with GEORGE WASHINGTON this year and that is a very positive credential for this. Possible late money betting favorite.
4 SLEEPING INDIAN (GB). . .Alex Solis. . . . . . . . . .20-1. . .John Gosden trained 5 yr old won two of his last three in Europe and seems to be moving forward at the right time of year. Gosden is a world class trainer with many wins in America, must respect and the price will be generous.
5 FREE THINKING. . . . . . . .Jose Santos. . . . . . . . .25-1. . .Just missed at 11-1 in the Kelso mile at Belmont when tentatively ridden by Jose Santos. No mistakes allowed here and will need lifetime best to hit the board.
6 ECHO OF LIGHT (GB). . . . Frankie Dettori. . . . . .6-1. . .Godolphin owned 4 yr old improved suddenly to beat softer in last two in Europe and the stables’ top rider Frank Dettori was asked to ride this one not LIBRETTIST.
7 ARAGORN (IRE). . . . . . . .Corey Nakatani. . . . . . . .9-2. . . Won his last four turf races in Southern California while hardly breaking a sweat. But this will be the toughest competition of his career and the price may be shorter than it should be.
8 BADGE OF SILVER. . . . . . Edgar Prado. . . . . . . .20-1. . .Talented, hard luck 6 yr old returned from eight months off in June with an easy Grade-2 stakes win in his career turf debut at slightly longer distance. Bobby Frankel trainee has good overall speed, but this seems a stretch.
9 ROB ROY. . . . . . . . . . . . .Ramon Dominguez. . . .15-1. . .Has several good tries in top European company for trainer Michael Stoute, a proven BC winner from Ireland. Beat the formidable HURRICANE RUN for second in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in latest, another Euro to consider.
10 MIESQUE'S APPROVAL . . . . Eddie Castro. . . . 15-1. . .Won four of six this year in a rare instance when a trainer (Martin Wolfson) improved upon the work of Hall of Famer, Billy Mott. Contender in a very deep race.
11 SUPER FROLIC. . . . . . . . . . . ..Shaun Bridgmohan. . . 50-1. . .Finished a surprising fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year at 69-1 and is winless in six outings this year—all in top company on dirt. His turf form however is well below the standard for this.
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12 GORELLA (FR) . . . . . . . . . . Julien Leparoux. . . . .7-2. . .Strong performer at this distance will be ridden by the amazing apprentice Julien Leparoux, who after less than 18 months as a professional jockey, is one of the top dozen riders in America and one of the top handful on grass. Will need racing luck to avoid a very wide first turn on this tight turning, 7 furlong course. Despite her obvious ability, I am tempted to bet against her.
13 LIBRETTIST. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Christophe Soumillon. . 12-1. . .Was trounced by GEORGE WASHINGTON and ARAAFA in the QEII at Ascot Sept. 23 after winning a five straight, including a pair of Group 1 races in France. It also seems important to note that his regular rider, Frank Dettori is off this one and riding the other Godolphin runner, ECHO OF LIGHT.
14 AUSSIE RULES. . . . . . . . . . . . Garrett Gomez. . . . . . .12-1. ..Was easily handled by LIBRETTIST in a Group 1 mile in France two months ago, but came to America and overpowered a moderate field in the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland with a strong final quarter clocked in less than 23 seconds. A similar performance here would put him in the frame.
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RACE #8 POST TIME 3:55 PM, EST

$2. 26 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF (GRADE I)
FILLIES & MARES, 3 YR OLDS AND UP, 1-1/8 MILES
RACE OVERVIEW: FLEET INDIAN has won all six races this year, mostly on or near the pace. She faces the beautifully developed, stretch running 3 yr old PINE ISLAND in an intriguing match up of high class performers. The rest are running for minor awards, or at best to split the top two.
PP Horse . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . Jockey. . . . . . . . . . . . Odds. . . Comment
1 ROUND POND. . . . .. . . .Edgar Prado. . . . .. . . . .15-1. . .Was a solid 3 yr old in 2005 and has come back after injuries under new trainer Mike Matz (BARBARO’S trainer) to finish in the money in her two most recent outings. Hard to gauge how much she can improve, but has never finished out of the money in 10 career starts.
2 PINE ISLAND. . . . . .. . . .Javier Castellano. . . . . .3-1. . . Natural router has improved every start for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey who has won this race three times, including last year (with PLEASANT HOME). Strong workouts for this and should move forward another notch, but still will need a contested pace to set things up for her rally.
3 HEALTHY ADDICTION. . . Victor Espinoza. . . . . .12-1. . .Consistent Graded stakes performer with good overall speed for the distance won last two in Southern California. Freshened up a bit; best puts her close.
4 SHARP LISA. . . . . . . . . . . Patrick Valenzuela. . . .35-1. . .Has failed to win in last five tries and never has cracked 100 on the Beyer Fig scale.

5 LEMONS FOREVER. . . . . Mark Guidry. . . . . . .. .30-1. . .Deep closer won the Kentucky Oaks in May here with help from a pace meltdown. Seems unlikely to outfinish some of these.
6 SPUN SUGAR. . . . . . . . . .Mike Luzzi. . . . . . . . . .10-1. . .Pletcher trained third stringer in this field did win the Grade-1 Apple Blossom in April and the Grade1 Go For Wand at Saratoga in August. Probably disliked Polytrack when terrible in the Spinster, can rebound here and underrated Luzzi rode her to two of her top career victories.
7 FLEET INDIAN. . . . . . . . . Jose Santos. . . . . . . .7-5 . . . Been unstoppable in six outings this year and last time out she showed a new, positive dimension winning from slightly off the pace with a wide move to the lead at the top of the stretch. A formidable Pletcher trained filly.
8 BAGHDARIA. . . . . . . . . . .Rafael Bejarano. . . . . 50-1. . .Multiple Grade-3 winner in the Midwest is stepping up quite a bit while also meeting older for the first time. Hard to support.
9 POOL LAND. . . . . . . . . . . John Velazquez. . . . . 12-1. . .Pletcher trained second stringer has good overall speed and six wins in eight career outings, including the Grade-1 Ruffian at Belmont in September. Certainly fits with most of these.
10 HOLLYWOOD STORY. . . David Flores. . . . . . . 30-1. . .Veteran campaigner was 10th in this race in 2004 and 8th last year, the two worst performances of her career. Been soundly defeated in last two by HEALTHY ADDICTION, can’t recommend.
11 BUSHFIRE. . . . . . . . . . . . Alex Solis. . . . . . . . . 30-1. . .Was the star of the early season 3 yr old filly races and is struggling to recapture that form while meeting older and tougher. Still has some early speed, but no thanks.
12 ASI SIEMPRE. . . . . . . . . .Julien Leparoux. . . . .12-1. . . Turf specialist won the Spinster at Keeneland with strong rally on the Polytrack surface. Bred for dirt, consider for the exotics.
13 HAPPY TICKET. . . . . . . . Garrett Gomez. . . . . .12-1. . .Faded to sixth on the Keeneland Polytrack surface in the Spinster after five good efforts at four different tracks. Needs careful handling to avoid wide trip and must improve her stretch punch.
14 BALLETTO (UAE). . . . . .Corey Nakatani. . . . . .8-1 . . . Stretch runner with many seconds and few wins is an obvious candidate for a share of the purse, but is a risky win play with her history of near misses.
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RACE #9 POST TIME 4:35 PM, EST
$3 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP TURF (GRADE I)
3 YR-OLDS AND UP,1 1/2 MILES (TURF)RACE OVERVIEW: HURRICANE RUN, 2005 winner of the prestigious Arc d’ Triomphe in Paris has had erratic form in 2006, but did win the important Group 1, King George-Queen Elizabeth II stakes at this distance over the ill fated Dubai World Cup winner ELECTROCUTIONIST, before Hurricane Run went on a three race losing streak. On his best he kills this field, but if he is here as an afterthought to a failing campaign, there are qualified alternatives, including a few Euros and the top two American runners, CACIQUE and ENGLISH CHANNEL who traded victories in their four meetings this year. Another American runner, the 7 yr old BETTER TALK NOW won this race in 2004, but may have lost a step.

PP Horse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Jockey. . . . . . . . . . .Odds. . .Comment
1 GO DEPUTY.. . . . . . . . . .Oliver Pesslier. . . . . . . . 8-1. . .Slowly improving Pletcher trainee wheels right back after narrowly losing the Canadian International at Woodbine two weeks ago while running the best race of his life. Interesting, but I believe there are a few better in this world class event.
2 T. H. APPROVAL. . . . .. . .Alex Solis. . . . . .. . . . . . 25-1. . .
Deep closer with solid southern California form this year seemed a bit more eager in latest and also ran his best career race when second to THE TIN MAN who seemed spent at the wire. Tough one to throw out, but as pointed oiut this is a tough field.
3 ICY ATLANTIC. . . . . . . . .Mike Luzzi. . . . . . . . . . .75-1. . .Pletcher trained front runner is in here strictly to set a realistic pace for ENGLISH CHANNEL and GO DEPUTY.
4 SCORPION (IRE). . . . . . . .Michael Kinane. . . . . . . .6-1. . .Talented European had only one race this year, a decent second place finish at the BC Turf distance in a minor stakes in Ireland, Oct. 8. Hard to gauge his true condition, but trainer Aidan O’Brien is one of the world’s best and this horse has the talent to win this if ready. Tempting upset threat.
5 RUSH BAY. . . . . . . . . . . . . Rafael Bejarano. . . . . . 50-1. . .OK Grade-2 type loves the distance, but seems overmatched against these.
6 CACIQUE (IRE). . . . . . . . . Edgar Prado. . . . . . . . . . .7-2. . .Outstanding performer in America who has traded victories in four outings with ENGLISH CHANNEL. Been freshened by Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel; has worked very well; one of the primary horses to fear.
7 HURRICANE RUN (IRE). . .Christophe Soumillon. . . 5-2. . .Won the prestigious Arc de Triomphe in 2005 and might have been the world’s best grass horse earlier this year. Lost his last three and has had only modest gallops at Churchill Downs. Fully capable of winning this, but must recover his top form on cue at relatively short odds.
8 BETTER TALK NOW. . . . . .Ramon Dominguez. . . .12-1. . .Good winner of the 2004 BC Turf has had a useful campaign and is not out of this, but he was outworked by his female stable mate FILM MAKER in a team drill last weekend.

9 RED ROCKS (IRE) . . . . . . . Frankie Dettori. . . . . . . 10-1. . .Has been 1-2-3 in all six of his European races this year, including a second to RAIL LINK, the 3 yr old who won the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamps last month. Can’t eliminate, but has not flashed any major hints of sharp improvement.
10 ENGLISH CHANNEL. . . . . John Velazquez. . . . . . . . 3-1. . .Solid Pletcher trainee who finished strongly to win the Turf Classic at this distance in his most recent at Belmont and traded four decisions with CACIQUE during the summer. Was a disappointing fifth as a 3 yr old in this race last year, but seems stronger and much tougher now. The one to beat.
11 SILVERFOOT. . . . . . . . . . .Mark Guidry. . . . . . . . . ..75-1. . .Longshot with some good tries behind some of these, but really does not figure at all.
-------------------- ----------------------------------
RACE #10 POST TIME 5:20 PM EST
$5 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC
3 YR OLDS AND UP 1 1/4 MILESRACE OVERVIEW: It’s the fabulous, eastern based 3 yr old BERNARDINI against the western based veteran LAVA MAN. At least that is what the promos will say. Actually, it’s Bernardini against himself and perhaps a few strangers and extreme longshots. Because if he reproduces any of the great races he’s run this year, they’ll all be running for second money.

PP Horse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Jockey. . . . . . . . . . . . .Odds. . .Comment
1 BROTHER DEREK . . . . . . . . . .Alex Solis. . . . . . . . . . 40-1. . .Lost his best form in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness when he endured very rough trips. Did not look good during the summer, but came back to life with good second to LAVA MAN in the Goodwood to earn his way here. Longshot chance to crack the Trifecta.

2 PREMIUM TAP. . . . . . . . . . . Edgar Prado. . . . . . . 25-1. . . Had much trouble when fifth in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway last month. Won the Woodward at Belmont in prior and has trained superbly for this. Offers potential value in the Exactas and Trifectas.
3 BERNARDINI. . . . . . . . . . . .Javier Castellano. . . . . .4-5. . . Would he have handled Kentucky Derby winner BARBARO? Probably yes, but that is assuming that Barbaro would not have improved the same way Bernardini did over the summer. Been awesome winning four straight under wraps over moderate opposition and gets the real test here.

4 GEORGE WASHINGTON (IRE). . Michael Kinane. . .10-1. . . The top Euro miler steps up big time, tries dirt and stretches out beyond his favorite distance for the first time in his life. If he is a world champion, this is the stage to prove it.

5 LAWYER RON. . . . . . . . . . . .Patrick Valenzuela. . . . 40-1. . .Was somewhat rank when he took the lead and lost it late in the Super Derby and then was turned over to Todd Pletcher in hopes to get him to relax enough to compete in this at the 1-1/4 mile distance. Interesting choice of jockeys; can front running Valenzuela relax this headstrong colt, or will he simply let him fly out of there and try to steal the race?
6 PERFECT DRIFT. . . . . . . . . .Garrett Gomez. . . . 20-1. . .Makes his fifth straight start in this BC race. Tends to fire late, too late, too often, but often earns a share.

7 DAVID JUNIOR. . . . . . . . .Jamie Spencer.. . . . . .8-1. . .Well traveled, hard hitting European loves this distance and this level of competition, but does he handle dirt? That is the big question., If the answer is yes, don’t be surprised if he gives BERNAREDINI all he can handle.
8 LAVA MAN. . . . . . . .Corey Nakatani. . . . . . . . . .6-1. . . Front running and near pace winner of all seven starts this year, all in California, may provide a good test for the favorite. Might not handle the favorite or one or two others, but he has trained exceptionally well for this and just might be set for the race of his life.
9 GIACOMO. . . . . . . . . . . Mike Smith. . . . . . . . . .50-1. . .Returns to the scene of his one shining moment----winning the 2005 Kentucky Derby at huge odds with benefit of a pace meltdown. Has some stretch running ability for this distance but is unlikely to threaten the best in here.
10 FLOWER ALLEY. . . . . .John Velazquez. . . . . . .40-1. . .Finished second in this race last year and has not been the same horse. Pletcher trained, but despite some hints of improvement has not shown enough positive signs to get on board for a major upset.
11 INVASOR (ARG). . . . . . .Fernando Jara. . . . . . .6-1. . . Been absent due to minor, but lingering physical issues since he won the Whitney at Saratoga for his third straight Grade-1 in 2006. A very strong horse with steady, well designed workouts. Has lost only one race in his life and looms a serious contender despite the layoff.
12 SUAVE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Kent Desormeaux. . . .50-1. . .Has won three of six lifetime tries over this track, but seems a cut below the leading contenders in here.
13 SUN KING. . . . . . . . . . . . Rafael Bejarano. . . . . 15-1. . .Deep closer who handles most any distance, just missed catching INVASOR in the Whitney at Saratoga and needed a slight freshening after a moderate third to PREMIUM TAP in the Woodward. Zito trained horses have frequently outperformed their odds for second and third placings in this race through the years and he did win the Kentucky Derby over this track twice in the 1990’s. Rates long chance and merits some play in the exotics.
 

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