NFL Championship Games
Arizona +3.5 +105 Philadelphia (Arizona 20, Philadelphia 17) 3 stars
Stat Line:
A sloppy game for a “championship”...
Warner throws 38 times for 220 yards, 23 rushes for 61 yards, 2 turnovers, 0 sacks
McNabb throws 45 times for 250 yards, 24 rushes for 66 yards, 3 turnovers, 1 sack
Overall:
While the Eagles certainly should be a favorite here of about 4 points, the Cardinals matchup surprisingly well. That's largely because the Eagles really don't dominate in any statistical categories, they just win ballgames. Most people are surprised by this matchup, but I've been staying on the Eagles bandwagon about as loyally as anyone. The Cardinals? Well, that's another story. If I thought the Giants came into the 2008 playoffs badly on defense, the 2009 Cardinals absolutely suck. But they make big plays, pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers. This, and a stronger commitment to the running game, has resulted in an unlikely NFC Championship appearance. Since the line is “fair”, the smart play is on the matchup of the Cardinals who lead the Eagles in several statistical areas and could outright win this game. While the Cardinals might win, this is not a good money line play. Take the points.
Offense:
Very close. The Cardinals actually hold a minor edge on the Eagles but they are extremely similar.
Defense:
The Cardinals have absolutely sucked all year and its surprising that a defense this horrible can make it to a Championship game. However, with the defense playing reasonably better and making big impact plays, they have a real shot here. If you like parlays, you'd want to take the Cardinals under and the Eagles in a shootout.
Baltimore +6 -115 Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17) 3 stars
Stat Line:
Flacco throws 21 times for 125 yards, 30 rushes for 94 yards, 1 TO and 2 sacks
Roethlisberger throws 38 times (too many) for 237 yards, but 28 rushes for 101. 3 TOs and 2 sacks.
Overall:
This is a matchup of the NFL's two best teams. Baltimore is marginally the better team, but must travel and has a rookie QB facing a vicious defense. Will it matter? Probably, but not enough to lay 6 points even though the Steelers should do very well if they run the ball like last week. Unfortunately, last week they were extremely predictable and Baltimore is not an easy team to dominate and plays tendencies well. The Steelers may have to get creative and that could lead to some serious problems. I do think the Steelers will prevail, but it may require a historic effort and perhaps even a comeback one.
Offense:
Statistically, you'd have to favor the Ravens. But its hard to ignore the odds that their green QB might hit the wall in the championship game, and hasn't exactly lit up the playoffs to date. Their strengths are obviously in possession and running the football but its hard to move the ball on the ground against the Steelers.
Defense:
Statistically, you'd have to favor the Steelers. But its more of a question of personnel matchups in this one than overall quality of defense.
Arizona +3.5 +105 Philadelphia (Arizona 20, Philadelphia 17) 3 stars
Stat Line:
A sloppy game for a “championship”...
Warner throws 38 times for 220 yards, 23 rushes for 61 yards, 2 turnovers, 0 sacks
McNabb throws 45 times for 250 yards, 24 rushes for 66 yards, 3 turnovers, 1 sack
Overall:
While the Eagles certainly should be a favorite here of about 4 points, the Cardinals matchup surprisingly well. That's largely because the Eagles really don't dominate in any statistical categories, they just win ballgames. Most people are surprised by this matchup, but I've been staying on the Eagles bandwagon about as loyally as anyone. The Cardinals? Well, that's another story. If I thought the Giants came into the 2008 playoffs badly on defense, the 2009 Cardinals absolutely suck. But they make big plays, pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers. This, and a stronger commitment to the running game, has resulted in an unlikely NFC Championship appearance. Since the line is “fair”, the smart play is on the matchup of the Cardinals who lead the Eagles in several statistical areas and could outright win this game. While the Cardinals might win, this is not a good money line play. Take the points.
Offense:
Very close. The Cardinals actually hold a minor edge on the Eagles but they are extremely similar.
Defense:
The Cardinals have absolutely sucked all year and its surprising that a defense this horrible can make it to a Championship game. However, with the defense playing reasonably better and making big impact plays, they have a real shot here. If you like parlays, you'd want to take the Cardinals under and the Eagles in a shootout.
Baltimore +6 -115 Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17) 3 stars
Stat Line:
Flacco throws 21 times for 125 yards, 30 rushes for 94 yards, 1 TO and 2 sacks
Roethlisberger throws 38 times (too many) for 237 yards, but 28 rushes for 101. 3 TOs and 2 sacks.
Overall:
This is a matchup of the NFL's two best teams. Baltimore is marginally the better team, but must travel and has a rookie QB facing a vicious defense. Will it matter? Probably, but not enough to lay 6 points even though the Steelers should do very well if they run the ball like last week. Unfortunately, last week they were extremely predictable and Baltimore is not an easy team to dominate and plays tendencies well. The Steelers may have to get creative and that could lead to some serious problems. I do think the Steelers will prevail, but it may require a historic effort and perhaps even a comeback one.
Offense:
Statistically, you'd have to favor the Ravens. But its hard to ignore the odds that their green QB might hit the wall in the championship game, and hasn't exactly lit up the playoffs to date. Their strengths are obviously in possession and running the football but its hard to move the ball on the ground against the Steelers.
Defense:
Statistically, you'd have to favor the Steelers. But its more of a question of personnel matchups in this one than overall quality of defense.