UFC 10/10 Service Plays


Well-known member
Kyle Marley

Here are Marley's picks for UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen (odds from William Hill US).

Cory Sandhagen (-145) vs. Marlon Moraes (+125): Sandhagen by decision

I have been saying Sandhagen will be a UFC champion one day and I am sticking to it. I think he is a top-three contender in this division and I do not think Moraes makes that cut. Sandhagen is better everywhere other than power. Moraes is fast and solid everywhere, but he is going to want to keep this on the feet and I think Sandhagen is better and will be throwing more volume. Sandhagen hasn't had a five-round fight yet so that would be my biggest concern. But if he is going to be the champ, cardio can't be an issue, so I think he wins a decision.

Edson Barboza (-250) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+210): Barboza via TKO

This will be purely a striker versus grappler matchup. Amirkhani has no shot to beat Edson on the feet other than a lucky knockout, so he will be looking for takedowns early and often. If he can get them, maybe he can lock up a submission or win two of the rounds with top control. Barboza is hard to take and he will work back to his feet and this will fatigue Amirkhani. Amirkhani will have some success with takedowns, but I don't know that he has the cardio for as much wrestling as he will need, so I will take Barboza by late knockout.

Ben Rothwell (-170) vs. Marcin Tybura (+150): Tybura by decision

This is going to be a slower-paced fight that will likely go the distance. This will probably look closer to a sparring match than it will Fight of the Night, but either guy could land that big punch to get a knockout. I think this is going to be a back-and-forth striking match that goes the distance and really could go either way. There is no way I would lay the juice on Rothwell, and Tybura is the pick for that reason.

Dric Dricus Du Plessis (-145) vs. Markus Perez (+125): Perez inside the distance

Plessis is making his UFC debut and he has never been to a decision. All his wins are by either knockout, guillotine choke or rear-naked choke. Based on the skills I saw, those are his only paths to victory Saturday as well. He does have power, so I think the knockout is his better shot because Perez has some grappling chops himself. I hate the volume from Perez, but he should be the all-around better fighter and he has never been knocked or choked out. I have to lean with him as the pick and I really don't see why he is the underdog.

Tom Aspinall (-440) vs. Alan Baudot (+360): Aspinall by TKO

Baudot is making his UFC debut on short notice. His record is 8-1 which looks OK, but he was actually finished in two of his last three fights (one was overturned to a disqualification victory), so I'm not sure why he even got the call-up. I am not sure why his last fight was overturned, but don't let that 8-1 fool you -- he isn't UFC-ready. Aspinall should be able to dominate and I expect a knockout.

Youssef Zalal (-180) vs. Ilia Topuria (+160): Zalal by decision

Topuria is making his UFC debut on short notice with an undefeated 8-0 record, with seven of those wins coming by submission and the other a knockout. He has a solid jab and overhand right, but Zalal is the better striker and he should cruise on the feet. Topuria could have grappling success and if he can get takedowns, he is live for a submission. He could win a decision if he can win two rounds with his grappling as well, but on short notice it might be hard to have that game plan.

Tom Breese (-260) vs. K.B. Bhullar (+220): Breese by decision

Bhullar is making his UFC debut with a perfect 8-0 record. This is by far his toughest fight to date and, if Breese makes it to the cage with his anxiety issues, I think he wins this fight. He should be better and more dangerous everywhere and he can finish on the feet or the ground. He probably wants to keep this fight on the feet and, if he does, he should cruise to a decision win if he can't get a knockout.

Rodrigo Nascimento (-280) vs. Chris Daukaus (+240): Nascimento by submission

Nascimento is going to have the edge on the ground and, if he can get it there, he can probably keep it there long enough to win the round or just get a finish. Daukaus looked much improved on the feet in his UFC debut, so much so that I give him the advantage there. Nascimento should be the favorite, but his line being almost 3-1 is too high.

Impa Kasanganay (-250) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+210): Kasanganay by TKO

This seems a bit early for Buckley to be fighting after a TKO loss where he was dropped two times just two months ago. Kasanganay is the better fighter everywhere and he has power that can test that chin. He also has the wrestling edge, so the only way I see Kasanganay losing is if Buckley lands a clean power shot.

Tony Kelley (-210) vs. Ali Alqaisi (+180): Kelley by decision

Kelley is going to be the better all-around talent and he can win this fight anywhere. On the feet, I don't think this is going to be close and Kelley should win clearly. The takedown defense is the worry for Kelley and, if he loses, it will probably be because he spent too much time on his back. Alqaisi doesn't look good enough to finish him, but maybe he can squeak out two rounds with wrestling. I don't see it happening, and I think Kelley cruises.

Omar Morales (-145) vs. Giga Chikadze (+125): Morales by decision

Morales should look to get this fight to the ground, but it is hard to trust that he will. If we knew his game plan would be to work in takedowns, then I would favor him over 2-1 in this spot. Chikadze is a kickboxer and he is only going to look to strike at range. If he can make Morales play the outside game, Chikadze wins at range. Morales can win this fight on the feet and he just needs to make this more of a brawl. He is the pick, but it will be much easier if he gets takedowns. He can get a submission if he does.

Tracy Cortez (-250) vs. Stephanie Egger (+210): Cortez by decision

Egger is stepping in on short notice to make her UFC debut. This is a tough spot for her and I don't see any advantages for her. She looks to be mostly a grappler, but Cortez is the better wrestler-grappler so it's hard seeing her have any success there. Maybe we see some crazy armbar from guard by Egger, but this is a matchup Cortez should be able to dominate.

Tagir Ulanbekov (-360) vs. Bruno Silva (+300): Ulanbekov by decision

Ulanbekov is making his UFC debut and he looks like a legit prospect. He is a Sambo fighter with a grappling-heavy style. He is good at getting guys to the mat and keeping them there. He can get submissions or ground-and-pound finishes, and he should be able to land takedowns. If this fight stays standing it will be pretty boring and much closer, but Ulanbekov is the pick.