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NFL
Sunday, October 29th
Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Houston: 0-7 ATS off a win as a home underdog
Tennessee: 13-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less
Jacksonville at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 15-6 ATS off an Under
Philadelphia: 22-7 Under at home in October
Atlanta at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 2-10 ATS off a win as a home underdog
Cincinnati: 8-2 Under vs. non-conference opponents
Tampa Bay at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Tampa Bay: 0-6 ATS off BB wins
NY Giants: 10-5 ATS as a home favorite
San Francisco at Chicago, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 2-9 ATS off a home game
Chicago: 14-4 Under off an ATS loss
Arizona at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 10-2 Over in October
Green Bay: 4-14 ATS in home games
Seattle at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 9-2 Over in road games
Kansas City: 9-2 ATS as a favorite
Baltimore at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Baltimore: 17-4 ATS off a loss as a favorite
New Orleans: 5-1 Under off BB wins
St. Louis at San Diego, 4:05 EST
St. Louis: 8-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
San Diego: 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Pittsburgh: 8-1 ATS off a non-conference game
Oakland: 1-10 ATS as a home underdog
NY Jets at Cleveland, 4:15 EST
NY Jets: 5-1 ATS off BB Overs
Cleveland: 9-2 Under in home games
Indianapolis at Denver, 4:15 EST
Indianapolis: 17-6 Over away off a home win by 10+ points
Denver: 14-4 ATS off a win
Dallas at Carolina, 8:15 EST NBC
Dallas: 14-5 Over in road games
Carolina: 13-5 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, October 30th
New England at Minnesota, 8:30 EST ESPN
New England: 6-0 ATS on artificial turf
Minnesota: 6-0 Under off a win by 14+ points
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
NFL Week 8 Bye Week:
Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins
_ _ _ _ _ _
NFL
2006 Week 8 NFL
Oddity this week is that Houston-Tennessee contest is the only divisional contest out of 14 on schedule; NFL rooting hard for no Game 7 of World Series conflicting with Dallas-Carolina game.
Buccaneers (2-4) @ Giants (3-2)- Letdown alert for Giant squad flying high after Monday night win in Dallas; Big Blue outscored foes 122-46 in second half of games this season. Second road start for Gradkowski (2-1 SU, 3-0 vs. spread in first three starts)-Bucs upset Philly last week, but didn't score TD on offense, and averaged just 3.8/3.0 yds/pass in last two games. Tampa is 0-3 on road, losing by 27,11,3 points; they're 4-1 vs. spread as dog. NFC South squads are 10-3 vs. spread in non-division games, 7-1 as dogs, 3-1 on road. Average total in last six Buc-Giant games is 28. Giants are favored for just second time, despite 4-2 record.
Texans (2-4) @ Titans (1-5)- Tennessee won seven of eight series games, going 3-1 here, with wins by 7,21,3 points; they got first '06 win in last game before bye; they've started running ball better (408 yards/last two games). Houston won two of last three games, but they're 0-2 on road, losing 43-24/34-6 and haven't picked off pass since Week 1; they allowed 15,7 points in their two wins, gave up 32.8 ppg in losses. Texans had best defensive games LW, holding Jaguars to 220 total yards, but they're still ranked 30th on third down (49.4%), 31st in black zone defense (2.10 ppp) and forced five turnovers, least of anyone in NFL.
Jaguars (3-3) @ Eagles (4-3)-Philly's three losses are all on last play of game; their wins are by 14,14,14,22 points (2-1 at home). Jaguars lost three of last four games after 2-0 start; they're disturbing 0-3 on road, losing at Colts (21-14), Redskins (36-30ot) and Texans (27-7)- they allowed nine TDs in 34 drives on road (two in 35 at home). This is their first-ever visit to Philly; Jax won the two previous series meetings (38-21/28-25). Jaguars allowed 17-0-0 pts in their three wins, 21-36-27 in their losses. Eagles lead league in offensive TDs, with 24 in 82 drives. Their 21 pts last week was Philly's lowest output this season.
Falcons (4-2) @ Bengals (4-2)- NFC South teams are 10-3 against spread this season, 7-1 as dogs, 3-1 on road; Atlanta off three straight home games- they're 1-1 on road, beating Carolina in opener, losing at Saints in Superdome re-opener. Home side won last four Falcon-Bengal games, with Atlanta losing last four visits to this site, by 30-21-4-10 points (only win in '71). AFC North teams are 3-7 as favorites in non-division games, 3-4 at home. Bengal OL having problems; they scored 13-13-17 pts in last three games (four TDs on 34 drives), partially because they're not taking ball away as much (11 takeaways in first three games, three in last three). Falcons haven't had minus turnover game in '06.
49ers (2-4) @ Bears (6-0)-Chicago off bye after wild Monday night win in Week 6; home side won their last eight games vs. 49ers, with Niners losing last three visits to Windy City by 6,10,8 points, 49ers are 2-0 when they allow less than 34 pts, but it only happened in two of six games; they allowed 34-38-41-48 pts in losses, losing games by 7-14-41-29 pts. Alex Smith vs. Bear defense (allowed four TDs on 71 drives) seems like mismatch, but ballhawking S Brown now out for Chicago, which hurts the defense. Bears were +12 in turnovers first five games (17-5), but -2 at Arizona, as Cardinals showed blueprint on how to fluster Grossman. 49ers allowed 34,41 points in two road games.
Cardinals (1-6) @ Packers (2-4)-Arizona demoted their OC, and didn't take him to last game, but he still works for them; there's a coaching staff working together. Redbirds lost six of last eight games to Packers, dropping last seven visits to Wisconsin- their last win in Wisconsin was when Harry Truman was President ('49). Packers scored 20+ points in four of last five games, have five TDs on last 24 drives, as Favre develops rapport with new WRs. Second road start for Leinart (0-3 as starter); Arizona has been outscored 62-12 in second half of last four games; they're 0-3 on road, losing by 11,22,13 pts. Funny thing is, Arizona is 1-6 with defense that leads NFL in takeaways (17, 2.83/game). In the NFL, hard to lose when getting a lot of takeaways.
Seahawks (4-2) @ Chiefs (3-3)- Seneca Wallace makes first start for Seattle, in same park he made his Iowa State debut; he had tough outing vs Vikings LW, as Seattle was outscored 21-3 after Hasselbeck went out. Home side won seven of last nine series games, with Seattle losing 10 of last 11 visits to Arrowhead, but this is their first visit here since '01, when they used to visit here every season (former AFC West rivals). Chiefs scored 41-23-30 pts in wins, 10-6-7 in losses. In their last four games, Seattle allowed 30-37-28-31 pts. With Wallace under center, hawks will be hard pressed to match points if their defense doesn't step up and play better.
Ravens (4-2) @ Saints (5-1)-Baltimore lost last two games before bye, fired their OC Fassel, now seek to move on vs. Saint club that scored 25.5 in winning last two games and has covered five of six games in '06, winning all three home games (by 20,3,3 pts). AFC North teams are 2-6 vs. spread on road in non-divisional games, 2-3 as road dog, while NFC south teams are 10-3, 2-2 as home faves. Ravens have six TDs on last 44 drives; they've gone 3/out on 41.2% of drives (28th in NFL). Dogs are 5-1 vs. spread in Saint games TY, 4-2 in Raven games. All three Baltimore road games stayed under total, with Ravens 2-1, despite scoring only three TDs in 31 drives on foreign soil.
Jets (4-3) @ Browns (1-5)-Cleveland "fired" OC Carthon Monday, as Browns, in 72 drives this season, scored nine TDs and tried only five FGs, tied with Raiders for least amount of scoring chances in NFL, and Oakland is only team they've beaten in '06. Browns scored 17 or less pts in all five losses (7 TDs on 52 drives). Jets allowed 20_ pts in five of last six games, but they've scored 51 pts in winning last two games, and covered four of last five (13 TDs on last 50 drives). Cleveland is 0-3 at home, losing by 5,1,10 pts with all three games staying under. Jets won two of three on road, but lost 41-0 at Jacksonville on last road trip. Browns' -9 turnover ratio is 31st in NFL, behind Raiders.
Rams (4-2) @ Chargers (4-2)-St Louis off bye; in their four wins, they forced 14 turnovers (3.5/game); in their losses, they forced one in each, so they must rattle young QB Rivers. Chargers turned ball three times at Arrowhead LW, after having total of three giveaways in first five games. LB Merriman appealed steroids suspension, will play here, boosting Bolt defense that forced 3/outs on 43.1% of enemy drives, second only to Ravens in NFL. Rams scored 30.7 ppg in last three games, but takeaways masked defensive deficiencies that Seattle exposed before bye. NFC West teams are 0-5-1 vs. spread in non-division road games. AFC West home faves are 4-1 vs. spread vs. non-division foes.
Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (1-5)- Not sure who Pitt QB will be as I type this, but Batch played well enough LW to indicate he will do solid job if called upon. Steelers ran ball for 143-219 yards in their wins, average of 79.8 in losses, so they must establish run, no matter who is under center. Oakland got first win LW, converting 13-20 on third down (they were 15-58 on 3rd down in five losses); they've run ball for 137+ yards in three of last four games, but their -13 turnover ratio is horrible- they even had five giveaways in last week's win. LW was first opponent Oakland held under 104 rushing yds; they've also given up 29 sacks in six games. Would expect Steeler fans to take over Coliseum. When was last time these two met, with both under .500?
Colts (6-0) @ Broncos (5-1)-Great matchup between unbeaten Indy (scored 91 pts in second half of last five games) and Denver defense that has given up two offensive TDs on 62 drives this year, both when team led 17-0. Only Indy win in five visits to Mile High City was when Vanderjagt nailed FG in snow to win night games, one of four Manning wins in six career games vs. Denver. Under is 6-0 in Bronco games, with 28 highest total they've had this year. Indy allowed 21+ points in four of six games; off thing is, in Week 8, this is Colts' first road game of year that wasn't in Jersey, and also first grass game of year, which may help Manning (harder to rush passer on slower surface). Average total in last five series games is 52.8.
Cowboys (3-3) @ Panthers (4-3)- Romo makes first NFL start on road vs. Panther club that won last two home games, allowing two TDs on 24 drives, but has sputtered in second half- they've been outscored in second half of every game this season (total of 82-42). All three Dallas games went over total, with Pokes losing two of three (17-24 at Jags, 24-38 at Eagles; beat Titans 45-14). Dallas is 0-2 vs. teams with winning record; they've split four games at Carolina, winning both regular season games, losing twice in playoffs. We have Owens-Smith-Keyshawn in national TV game, lot of egos involved, with both teams desperately needing wins to gain momentum for second half of season. Dallas traveling on short work week no picnic.
Patriots (5-1) @ Vikings (4-2)-Pats scored 11 TDs on 30 drives in last three games, have played good ball on road (3-0, wins at Jets 24-17, Bengals 38-13, Bills 28-6) but have showdown with Colts next week, after divisional game with Bills last week, so little bit of sandwich game for them, while Vikings will be primed for home Monday nighter. NFC North teams are 5-1 against spread in non-divisional home games. Vikings had only five TDs on 53 drives before their bye, but had three on 11 at Seattle LW, running ball for 175 yards behind former Seahawk Hutchinson. Belichick's defense has yet to allow more than 17 points; invest against him at your own risk.
NFL
Sunday, October 29th
Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Houston: 0-7 ATS off a win as a home underdog
Tennessee: 13-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less
Jacksonville at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 15-6 ATS off an Under
Philadelphia: 22-7 Under at home in October
Atlanta at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 2-10 ATS off a win as a home underdog
Cincinnati: 8-2 Under vs. non-conference opponents
Tampa Bay at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Tampa Bay: 0-6 ATS off BB wins
NY Giants: 10-5 ATS as a home favorite
San Francisco at Chicago, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 2-9 ATS off a home game
Chicago: 14-4 Under off an ATS loss
Arizona at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 10-2 Over in October
Green Bay: 4-14 ATS in home games
Seattle at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 9-2 Over in road games
Kansas City: 9-2 ATS as a favorite
Baltimore at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Baltimore: 17-4 ATS off a loss as a favorite
New Orleans: 5-1 Under off BB wins
St. Louis at San Diego, 4:05 EST
St. Louis: 8-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
San Diego: 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Pittsburgh: 8-1 ATS off a non-conference game
Oakland: 1-10 ATS as a home underdog
NY Jets at Cleveland, 4:15 EST
NY Jets: 5-1 ATS off BB Overs
Cleveland: 9-2 Under in home games
Indianapolis at Denver, 4:15 EST
Indianapolis: 17-6 Over away off a home win by 10+ points
Denver: 14-4 ATS off a win
Dallas at Carolina, 8:15 EST NBC
Dallas: 14-5 Over in road games
Carolina: 13-5 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, October 30th
New England at Minnesota, 8:30 EST ESPN
New England: 6-0 ATS on artificial turf
Minnesota: 6-0 Under off a win by 14+ points
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
NFL Week 8 Bye Week:
Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins
_ _ _ _ _ _
NFL
2006 Week 8 NFL
Oddity this week is that Houston-Tennessee contest is the only divisional contest out of 14 on schedule; NFL rooting hard for no Game 7 of World Series conflicting with Dallas-Carolina game.
Buccaneers (2-4) @ Giants (3-2)- Letdown alert for Giant squad flying high after Monday night win in Dallas; Big Blue outscored foes 122-46 in second half of games this season. Second road start for Gradkowski (2-1 SU, 3-0 vs. spread in first three starts)-Bucs upset Philly last week, but didn't score TD on offense, and averaged just 3.8/3.0 yds/pass in last two games. Tampa is 0-3 on road, losing by 27,11,3 points; they're 4-1 vs. spread as dog. NFC South squads are 10-3 vs. spread in non-division games, 7-1 as dogs, 3-1 on road. Average total in last six Buc-Giant games is 28. Giants are favored for just second time, despite 4-2 record.
Texans (2-4) @ Titans (1-5)- Tennessee won seven of eight series games, going 3-1 here, with wins by 7,21,3 points; they got first '06 win in last game before bye; they've started running ball better (408 yards/last two games). Houston won two of last three games, but they're 0-2 on road, losing 43-24/34-6 and haven't picked off pass since Week 1; they allowed 15,7 points in their two wins, gave up 32.8 ppg in losses. Texans had best defensive games LW, holding Jaguars to 220 total yards, but they're still ranked 30th on third down (49.4%), 31st in black zone defense (2.10 ppp) and forced five turnovers, least of anyone in NFL.
Jaguars (3-3) @ Eagles (4-3)-Philly's three losses are all on last play of game; their wins are by 14,14,14,22 points (2-1 at home). Jaguars lost three of last four games after 2-0 start; they're disturbing 0-3 on road, losing at Colts (21-14), Redskins (36-30ot) and Texans (27-7)- they allowed nine TDs in 34 drives on road (two in 35 at home). This is their first-ever visit to Philly; Jax won the two previous series meetings (38-21/28-25). Jaguars allowed 17-0-0 pts in their three wins, 21-36-27 in their losses. Eagles lead league in offensive TDs, with 24 in 82 drives. Their 21 pts last week was Philly's lowest output this season.
Falcons (4-2) @ Bengals (4-2)- NFC South teams are 10-3 against spread this season, 7-1 as dogs, 3-1 on road; Atlanta off three straight home games- they're 1-1 on road, beating Carolina in opener, losing at Saints in Superdome re-opener. Home side won last four Falcon-Bengal games, with Atlanta losing last four visits to this site, by 30-21-4-10 points (only win in '71). AFC North teams are 3-7 as favorites in non-division games, 3-4 at home. Bengal OL having problems; they scored 13-13-17 pts in last three games (four TDs on 34 drives), partially because they're not taking ball away as much (11 takeaways in first three games, three in last three). Falcons haven't had minus turnover game in '06.
49ers (2-4) @ Bears (6-0)-Chicago off bye after wild Monday night win in Week 6; home side won their last eight games vs. 49ers, with Niners losing last three visits to Windy City by 6,10,8 points, 49ers are 2-0 when they allow less than 34 pts, but it only happened in two of six games; they allowed 34-38-41-48 pts in losses, losing games by 7-14-41-29 pts. Alex Smith vs. Bear defense (allowed four TDs on 71 drives) seems like mismatch, but ballhawking S Brown now out for Chicago, which hurts the defense. Bears were +12 in turnovers first five games (17-5), but -2 at Arizona, as Cardinals showed blueprint on how to fluster Grossman. 49ers allowed 34,41 points in two road games.
Cardinals (1-6) @ Packers (2-4)-Arizona demoted their OC, and didn't take him to last game, but he still works for them; there's a coaching staff working together. Redbirds lost six of last eight games to Packers, dropping last seven visits to Wisconsin- their last win in Wisconsin was when Harry Truman was President ('49). Packers scored 20+ points in four of last five games, have five TDs on last 24 drives, as Favre develops rapport with new WRs. Second road start for Leinart (0-3 as starter); Arizona has been outscored 62-12 in second half of last four games; they're 0-3 on road, losing by 11,22,13 pts. Funny thing is, Arizona is 1-6 with defense that leads NFL in takeaways (17, 2.83/game). In the NFL, hard to lose when getting a lot of takeaways.
Seahawks (4-2) @ Chiefs (3-3)- Seneca Wallace makes first start for Seattle, in same park he made his Iowa State debut; he had tough outing vs Vikings LW, as Seattle was outscored 21-3 after Hasselbeck went out. Home side won seven of last nine series games, with Seattle losing 10 of last 11 visits to Arrowhead, but this is their first visit here since '01, when they used to visit here every season (former AFC West rivals). Chiefs scored 41-23-30 pts in wins, 10-6-7 in losses. In their last four games, Seattle allowed 30-37-28-31 pts. With Wallace under center, hawks will be hard pressed to match points if their defense doesn't step up and play better.
Ravens (4-2) @ Saints (5-1)-Baltimore lost last two games before bye, fired their OC Fassel, now seek to move on vs. Saint club that scored 25.5 in winning last two games and has covered five of six games in '06, winning all three home games (by 20,3,3 pts). AFC North teams are 2-6 vs. spread on road in non-divisional games, 2-3 as road dog, while NFC south teams are 10-3, 2-2 as home faves. Ravens have six TDs on last 44 drives; they've gone 3/out on 41.2% of drives (28th in NFL). Dogs are 5-1 vs. spread in Saint games TY, 4-2 in Raven games. All three Baltimore road games stayed under total, with Ravens 2-1, despite scoring only three TDs in 31 drives on foreign soil.
Jets (4-3) @ Browns (1-5)-Cleveland "fired" OC Carthon Monday, as Browns, in 72 drives this season, scored nine TDs and tried only five FGs, tied with Raiders for least amount of scoring chances in NFL, and Oakland is only team they've beaten in '06. Browns scored 17 or less pts in all five losses (7 TDs on 52 drives). Jets allowed 20_ pts in five of last six games, but they've scored 51 pts in winning last two games, and covered four of last five (13 TDs on last 50 drives). Cleveland is 0-3 at home, losing by 5,1,10 pts with all three games staying under. Jets won two of three on road, but lost 41-0 at Jacksonville on last road trip. Browns' -9 turnover ratio is 31st in NFL, behind Raiders.
Rams (4-2) @ Chargers (4-2)-St Louis off bye; in their four wins, they forced 14 turnovers (3.5/game); in their losses, they forced one in each, so they must rattle young QB Rivers. Chargers turned ball three times at Arrowhead LW, after having total of three giveaways in first five games. LB Merriman appealed steroids suspension, will play here, boosting Bolt defense that forced 3/outs on 43.1% of enemy drives, second only to Ravens in NFL. Rams scored 30.7 ppg in last three games, but takeaways masked defensive deficiencies that Seattle exposed before bye. NFC West teams are 0-5-1 vs. spread in non-division road games. AFC West home faves are 4-1 vs. spread vs. non-division foes.
Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (1-5)- Not sure who Pitt QB will be as I type this, but Batch played well enough LW to indicate he will do solid job if called upon. Steelers ran ball for 143-219 yards in their wins, average of 79.8 in losses, so they must establish run, no matter who is under center. Oakland got first win LW, converting 13-20 on third down (they were 15-58 on 3rd down in five losses); they've run ball for 137+ yards in three of last four games, but their -13 turnover ratio is horrible- they even had five giveaways in last week's win. LW was first opponent Oakland held under 104 rushing yds; they've also given up 29 sacks in six games. Would expect Steeler fans to take over Coliseum. When was last time these two met, with both under .500?
Colts (6-0) @ Broncos (5-1)-Great matchup between unbeaten Indy (scored 91 pts in second half of last five games) and Denver defense that has given up two offensive TDs on 62 drives this year, both when team led 17-0. Only Indy win in five visits to Mile High City was when Vanderjagt nailed FG in snow to win night games, one of four Manning wins in six career games vs. Denver. Under is 6-0 in Bronco games, with 28 highest total they've had this year. Indy allowed 21+ points in four of six games; off thing is, in Week 8, this is Colts' first road game of year that wasn't in Jersey, and also first grass game of year, which may help Manning (harder to rush passer on slower surface). Average total in last five series games is 52.8.
Cowboys (3-3) @ Panthers (4-3)- Romo makes first NFL start on road vs. Panther club that won last two home games, allowing two TDs on 24 drives, but has sputtered in second half- they've been outscored in second half of every game this season (total of 82-42). All three Dallas games went over total, with Pokes losing two of three (17-24 at Jags, 24-38 at Eagles; beat Titans 45-14). Dallas is 0-2 vs. teams with winning record; they've split four games at Carolina, winning both regular season games, losing twice in playoffs. We have Owens-Smith-Keyshawn in national TV game, lot of egos involved, with both teams desperately needing wins to gain momentum for second half of season. Dallas traveling on short work week no picnic.
Patriots (5-1) @ Vikings (4-2)-Pats scored 11 TDs on 30 drives in last three games, have played good ball on road (3-0, wins at Jets 24-17, Bengals 38-13, Bills 28-6) but have showdown with Colts next week, after divisional game with Bills last week, so little bit of sandwich game for them, while Vikings will be primed for home Monday nighter. NFC North teams are 5-1 against spread in non-divisional home games. Vikings had only five TDs on 53 drives before their bye, but had three on 11 at Seattle LW, running ball for 175 yards behind former Seahawk Hutchinson. Belichick's defense has yet to allow more than 17 points; invest against him at your own risk.