My original thoughts when the concept was first introduced some years ago were if they were willing to let you do it than it probably was more to their benefit than yours. It is also interesting to note that when this concept was first introduced to the public, you were allowed to buy the hook up or down on all numbers EXCEPT THE NUMBER 3. All numbers are now offered with varying lay and take prices.
I am still pretty much of the same opinion other than the number 3, and even then I try not to lay higher than –115. Let me point out that I am not a mathematician and that the theory I present below is just my well thought out opinion based on my actual experience.
When you raise your average lay price from 110/100 to 120/100 you have also raised your already formidable break-even price of 52.38 % to almost 55% (54.55). This is significant indeed because 55% is around the figure that if you can consistently achieve it, begins to vault you into the solid profit range. That being said the only 2 numbers you should even consider buying on or off the hook are 3 and 7 and like I said earlier I personally restrict it to the number 3 only, and even then in limited circumstances. Take the number 7 as example. The frequency of an NFL game ending exactly on a 7-point margin is approximately 7%. What many handicappers fail to realize is that also included in that 7% figure is the fact that the underdog could have won the game by exactly 7-points. Also, of the favorites that won by exactly 7 points, how many of them were actually a 6 ½ to a 7 ½ point favorite? I know that back in the mid to late 80’s when I was personally tracking these key numbers the answer to the last question in 2 of the years was ZERO!
Don’t misunderstand me here. There is no doubt that you should try to be on the right side of all the key numbers, with the top 7 being 3-7-4-6-1-14 and 10. I believe the proper strategy is to have multiple outs and be prepared to act. Buying on or off the hook should be done sparingly and as a last resort. In this day and age there is simply no reason if you fancy yourself a serious player not to have multiple outs. It is then just a matter of monitoring the lines and pouncing. We addressed an example in an earlier column (The importance of the number 3). We will take another one here and use the game of Saturday September 15th between Arkansas and Alabama. In this very newsletter you had 2 different opinions in the same game. My returning starters theory pointed to Alabama as a play provided the line was –3 or less, while Jim Murphy’s write up feature recommended a play on Arkansas. Jim is an excellent handicapper in his own right, which leads to another important point. There is more than one way to skin a cat. Two people could leave Los Angeles from exactly the same starting point heading for Vegas. These 2 travelers could take 2 entirely different routes and both arrive safely at the same destination. It’s the same with competent handicapping. Lets get back to my point. For those of you wanting to bet on Arkansas there were 3.5’s abound all over the place and as soon as that 3.5 was available to you there was no need to get greedy hoping for more. The proper strategy is to take the 3.5 immediately. On the Alabama side of the coin it’s a waiting game. No need to run right out and buy the hook. Sit there, be patience and wait. Sure enough on game day there were 3’s everywhere. You then go ahead and lay the 3 at 110 to 100. If the 3 didn’t appear as it got closer to game time I would then start looking at the lay prices and see if I could buy it down to 3 as cheaply as possible, 120 to 100 or less and preferably 115 to 100. If the line rose to 4 while you were waiting, then in this particular situation since you have a self imposed line limit, you would have no bet and would have avoided a loser. As you all know the game ended with Alabama winning by exactly 3 points. Once again, providing the bettors on both sides of the game practiced proper betting strategy, the only losers were the books!
In closing let me say this. If you are a small bettor that is in this for the fun of it with the hope of having a little pocket money at the end of the season then by all means lay the 36 to 30 instead of 33 to 30 and take 7 instead of 6.5. As far as the serious player who is in it strictly to make a profit I believe that the strategy of buying the hook should be the exception and not the rule.
I am still pretty much of the same opinion other than the number 3, and even then I try not to lay higher than –115. Let me point out that I am not a mathematician and that the theory I present below is just my well thought out opinion based on my actual experience.
When you raise your average lay price from 110/100 to 120/100 you have also raised your already formidable break-even price of 52.38 % to almost 55% (54.55). This is significant indeed because 55% is around the figure that if you can consistently achieve it, begins to vault you into the solid profit range. That being said the only 2 numbers you should even consider buying on or off the hook are 3 and 7 and like I said earlier I personally restrict it to the number 3 only, and even then in limited circumstances. Take the number 7 as example. The frequency of an NFL game ending exactly on a 7-point margin is approximately 7%. What many handicappers fail to realize is that also included in that 7% figure is the fact that the underdog could have won the game by exactly 7-points. Also, of the favorites that won by exactly 7 points, how many of them were actually a 6 ½ to a 7 ½ point favorite? I know that back in the mid to late 80’s when I was personally tracking these key numbers the answer to the last question in 2 of the years was ZERO!
Don’t misunderstand me here. There is no doubt that you should try to be on the right side of all the key numbers, with the top 7 being 3-7-4-6-1-14 and 10. I believe the proper strategy is to have multiple outs and be prepared to act. Buying on or off the hook should be done sparingly and as a last resort. In this day and age there is simply no reason if you fancy yourself a serious player not to have multiple outs. It is then just a matter of monitoring the lines and pouncing. We addressed an example in an earlier column (The importance of the number 3). We will take another one here and use the game of Saturday September 15th between Arkansas and Alabama. In this very newsletter you had 2 different opinions in the same game. My returning starters theory pointed to Alabama as a play provided the line was –3 or less, while Jim Murphy’s write up feature recommended a play on Arkansas. Jim is an excellent handicapper in his own right, which leads to another important point. There is more than one way to skin a cat. Two people could leave Los Angeles from exactly the same starting point heading for Vegas. These 2 travelers could take 2 entirely different routes and both arrive safely at the same destination. It’s the same with competent handicapping. Lets get back to my point. For those of you wanting to bet on Arkansas there were 3.5’s abound all over the place and as soon as that 3.5 was available to you there was no need to get greedy hoping for more. The proper strategy is to take the 3.5 immediately. On the Alabama side of the coin it’s a waiting game. No need to run right out and buy the hook. Sit there, be patience and wait. Sure enough on game day there were 3’s everywhere. You then go ahead and lay the 3 at 110 to 100. If the 3 didn’t appear as it got closer to game time I would then start looking at the lay prices and see if I could buy it down to 3 as cheaply as possible, 120 to 100 or less and preferably 115 to 100. If the line rose to 4 while you were waiting, then in this particular situation since you have a self imposed line limit, you would have no bet and would have avoided a loser. As you all know the game ended with Alabama winning by exactly 3 points. Once again, providing the bettors on both sides of the game practiced proper betting strategy, the only losers were the books!
In closing let me say this. If you are a small bettor that is in this for the fun of it with the hope of having a little pocket money at the end of the season then by all means lay the 36 to 30 instead of 33 to 30 and take 7 instead of 6.5. As far as the serious player who is in it strictly to make a profit I believe that the strategy of buying the hook should be the exception and not the rule.