Jonathon Kinchen


Well-known member
Jonathon Kinchen


This is a very interesting edition of the Preakness Stakes. Kentucky Derby upsetter Authentic looks to win the final leg of the Triple Crown and will face two significant new challengers: Blue Grass Stakes winner Art Collector and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Swiss Skydiver.

I was 100 percent prepared to pick 3 Art Collector (5-2) in the Preakness. He missed the Kentucky Derby because of a minor issue and has trained with no problems since then. But the draw did him no favors. Leaving from the No. 3 post, he will be under the gun from the outset because Derby winner 9 Authentic (9-5) is to his outside. Authentic is tactical, fast and accomplished, and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez will be able to dictate what happens and how the race unfolds from the No. 9 post.

I see these two opening up on the field; they're the best two horses. And based on the draw, I'm going to give the edge to Authentic.

I'm not falling for anyone else. I think 2 Mr. Big News (12-1) took advantage of a quick pace in the Derby to finish third, and I don't see how he will turn the tables on Authentic.

5 Thousand Words (6-1) adds blinkers, which is strange since he wasn't going to run with blinkers in the Derby before he had to be scratched. Trainer Bob Baffert hasn't been successful with adding blinkers in big races like this.

7 Ny Traffic (15-1) was handled by Authentic already in the Haskell and Derby.

8 Max Player (15-1) seems like a plodder.

10 Pneumatic (20-1) and 11 Liveyourbeastlife (30-1) are not fast enough.

Wagering strategy
As I said, I think Authentic and Art Collector are the two best horses. I predict these two will pull away from the field, and I give the slight edge to Authentic. I will leverage that opinion by playing these two in exactas and not speculate with trfiectas and superfectas since my opinion is less certain with possible third- and fourth-place finishers..

$70 exacta 9 with 3 ($70)
$30 exacta 3 with 9 ($30)

Total: $100