1. New Orleans -13 Detroit (NO 38, Detroit 20)
You don't make a living on double-digit spreads and much of my success in 2008 can be attributed to my staying away from them. But I'm drawn to this line enough to open the season with it. First, when taking a double-digit spread, you want to be certain that the team won't lose! What more could you want than Detroit? They lost EVERY game last season, and they haven't won a road game since the AFC/NFC merged. I like QBs and passing yards in the opening week, and can you ask for a bigger mismatch? Brees threw for 5,000 yards last season. Detroit is bringing a knife to a gun fight. Stafford hasn't even thrown a TD yet on an NFL field! And against VANILLA defenses, he threw a pick in every preseason outing. This start smacks of politics, pure and simple. And if you want to talk matchups, just 2 NFL games ago...probably the gameplan is still in their memory banks, the Saints smashed the Lions 41-7. It wouldn't surprise me if they know the Lions' personnel as well as the Lions' coaches do. What more could you want?
2. Tampa Bay +5.5 Dallas (TB 14, Dallas 13)
I had this one circled in May and the numbers support it. Dallas has a big opener next week and Tampa isn't likely to see their "A" game, whatever that is. Dallas may have some growing pains now that the greatest decoy in the NFL is no longer on their team.
3. Houston -4.5 NY Jets (Houston 20, Jets 13)
Another young QB starts, and he has to face down a defense designed to pressure Peyton Manning. I expect a good dose of Mario Williams. I actually take some comfort in Rex Grossman being the 2nd string QB.
4. Minnesota -3.5 -115 Cleveland (Minnesota 20, Cleveland 7)
I've always loved taking Favre in openers, but this is really more about an explosive running game and a great defense on the Vikings side of the ball. I have to think the Vikings will win this game convincingly and given that, odds favor the cover.
5. Arizona -6 SF (Arizona 23, SF 7)
Pretty cheap considering that the Cardinals were substantially better than the 49ers last year. "Q" seems to stand for "Questionable".
6. Oakland +9.5 SD (SD 21, Oak 17)
Last year, going against Oakland in the opener cost a mere 3 points. This year, its skyrocketed to 9.5. That's high enough for me to take the points even though I still doubt the Raiders can complete a forward pass.
2006: 58%
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
Lines are -110 unless otherwise specified
You don't make a living on double-digit spreads and much of my success in 2008 can be attributed to my staying away from them. But I'm drawn to this line enough to open the season with it. First, when taking a double-digit spread, you want to be certain that the team won't lose! What more could you want than Detroit? They lost EVERY game last season, and they haven't won a road game since the AFC/NFC merged. I like QBs and passing yards in the opening week, and can you ask for a bigger mismatch? Brees threw for 5,000 yards last season. Detroit is bringing a knife to a gun fight. Stafford hasn't even thrown a TD yet on an NFL field! And against VANILLA defenses, he threw a pick in every preseason outing. This start smacks of politics, pure and simple. And if you want to talk matchups, just 2 NFL games ago...probably the gameplan is still in their memory banks, the Saints smashed the Lions 41-7. It wouldn't surprise me if they know the Lions' personnel as well as the Lions' coaches do. What more could you want?
2. Tampa Bay +5.5 Dallas (TB 14, Dallas 13)
I had this one circled in May and the numbers support it. Dallas has a big opener next week and Tampa isn't likely to see their "A" game, whatever that is. Dallas may have some growing pains now that the greatest decoy in the NFL is no longer on their team.
3. Houston -4.5 NY Jets (Houston 20, Jets 13)
Another young QB starts, and he has to face down a defense designed to pressure Peyton Manning. I expect a good dose of Mario Williams. I actually take some comfort in Rex Grossman being the 2nd string QB.
4. Minnesota -3.5 -115 Cleveland (Minnesota 20, Cleveland 7)
I've always loved taking Favre in openers, but this is really more about an explosive running game and a great defense on the Vikings side of the ball. I have to think the Vikings will win this game convincingly and given that, odds favor the cover.
5. Arizona -6 SF (Arizona 23, SF 7)
Pretty cheap considering that the Cardinals were substantially better than the 49ers last year. "Q" seems to stand for "Questionable".
6. Oakland +9.5 SD (SD 21, Oak 17)
Last year, going against Oakland in the opener cost a mere 3 points. This year, its skyrocketed to 9.5. That's high enough for me to take the points even though I still doubt the Raiders can complete a forward pass.
2006: 58%
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
Lines are -110 unless otherwise specified