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#1
HITMAN | NFL Side - Monday, Oct 19 2020 8:15PM
276 DAL 3.0(-115) Bookmaker vs 275 ARI triple-dime bet

Analysis: Overreaction to the Dak injury. The look ahead line on this game was Cowboys -3, and despite Dak obviously being a better quarterback then Andy Dalton, the difference is just not worth the line move.


Dallas has arguably the best wide receivers in the NFL, and an excellent running back to help offset the loss of Dak. Andy Dalton in Cincinnati was more then serviceable when he had top end weapons around him.


The weakness of this Cowboys offense is the offensive line, however, the Cardinals are 28th in the NFL in pressure rate this season. And that was with superstar edge rusher Chandler Jones, who is now out for the season. Jones is one of the few defenders in the NFL actually worth 0.5-1 point to the point spread.


The spot favors Dallas, as a team who's back is now against the wall and must rally around Andy Dalton, while the Cardinals are playing their third straight road game.


I make this game PK
 

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#3
Teddys 5% NFL Big Ticket
Game: (271) Green Bay Packers at (272) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Oct 18 2020 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (-110)
 

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#4
Prediction Machine NFL Pick:

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

The 4-1 Cleveland Browns make the short trek to Pittsburgh this week for an AFC North battle with the undefeated Steelers. It will be the first matchup between these two teams since the Myles Garrett-Mason Rudolph helmet swinging fiasco of 2019 and features as much on-field entertainment as it does off-field drama. The AFC North standings are tightly-bunched up top with 4-0 Pittsburgh leading the way and Baltimore and Cleveland right on their heels at 4-1, so this matchup includes plenty of playoff implications.
Pittsburgh enters this matchup as 3-point favorites over Kevin Stefanski’s squad, but our model projects Mike Tomlin’s crew as nearly double-digit victors. Our NFL model is projecting a final score of 28.5-18.6 in favor of Pittsburgh, giving us a large edge on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.
Why Will Pittsburgh Cover the Spread?
Our model loves Pittsburgh’s defense in this matchup and expects them to stymie Baker Mayfield and the Browns. The Steelers have limited opposing offenses to 5.0 yards per play this season, which is 4th-best in the NFL. Cleveland has excelled in the running game, picking up a second-best 5.5 yards per carry thus far. Pittsburgh has held opponents to a second-worst 3.3 yards per carry and wield the upper-hand in this matchup with Cleveland guard Wyatt Teller likely out for this Sunday.
Pittsburgh’s defense paces the NFL with a massive 12.27% sack rate on the season. No other team is above 10%, further indicating their line is the league’s best through five weeks. Cleveland’s line has made great strides in 2020 and has done a solid job of protecting Baker Mayfield, but we’re still expecting consistent pressure from Pittsburgh. Mayfield has been limited in practice this week with a ribs injury, so he could be squeamish in the pocket and more vulnerable to pressure than usual.
Ben Roethlisberger has the weapons to exploit a mediocre Browns secondary. Cleveland has allowed a league-average 6.9 yards per pass attempt thus far, but rank 19th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA metric and have faced Baltimore (24th in yards per pass attempt), Cincinnati (29th), and Washington (31st).
Expect Big Ben to have an efficient outing Sunday.
 

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#7
R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
11:33 AM

WASHINGTON +3
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
This line is telling you the Giants are the better team in this matchup, since teams aren't getting three points for homefield during 2020, but why is that the case? Because they scored 34 points against the Cowboys, one of the worst defenses in the league? Well, that output came with just 300 yards of offense, which was somehow a season-high for the Giants. Washington's offense couldn't get anything going last week against a good Rams defense, but this is a much easier matchup. While both teams have struggled in most facets, I will note that Washington is eighth in red-zone TD rate while the Giants are 31st. Throw in a clear coaching advantage and I love getting a full field goal with Washington.

6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL ATS PICKS | +385
13-5 IN LAST 18 NYG ATS PICKS | +735

22-15 IN LAST 37 WAS ATS PICKS | +545
 

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#8
HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 18 2020 1:00PM
256 MIN -3.0(-120) Bookmaker vs 255 ATL triple-dime bet

Analysis: The Vikings have owned the Falcons under Mike Zimmer, going 4-0 SUATS. More telling story is what Zimmer has done to Matt Ryan in those four matchups, specifically in the last three matchups.


Ryan's offense has scored 12, 10, and 9 points against Zimmer's defense in those matchups. Obviously, the Vikings defense is not what they used to be, but Ryan is not what he used to be as well. Over Ryan's last 30 drives, he is completing only 58.9% of his passes for 685 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Film watchers have said Ryan looks noticeably older. The Falcons have scored 16 points in each of their last two games against two suspect defenses in Green Bay and Atlanta.


The Vikings offensive line is the weak spot of their offense, but Atlanta can not take advantage of that. The Vikings offense has been excellent in three games this season against teams with a weak defensive line (TEN/HOU/SEA). Against two teams that could dominate them up front, they struggled (GB/IND). Atlanta is the 31st ranked defense in YPP allowed and Minnesota should be able to run and pass on them, with or without Dalvin Cook.


Mike Zimmer is an NFL best 61.9% ATS since 2014, but he's especially elite after a loss (30-10 ATS). In non division home games, Zimmer is 24-7-2 ATS. Non division home games off a loss, Minnesota is 10-0 ATS.




Reminder, don't buy a "GOY" pick thinking that it's some lock, because it's not. We have hit at a very high win percentage over the last two years selling, and years prior in the forums (57%). For me to step up with a big release on this game, I believe this is a 60% ish bet, which means in my mind it's going to lose 4 times out of 10. But in the long run, I think this is a great bet and I feel my handicap on the game is strong. Don't go crazy and bet half your bankroll on one game. Play this a little bigger then our other releases this season, and that's it. Good luck!
 

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#11
Mike Tierney

GREEN BAY -2
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY | 10/18 | 4:25 PM EDT
TUE 10/13
It seems odd to partly base a pick on a QB matchup that is unflattering to Tom Brady, but here we are. Aaron Rodgers has exceeded even his sparking history — 13 TD passes and zero interceptions says it all — while Brady is prone to inconsistency. Green Bay enters as the fresher team — 13 days off between gigs, compared to nine for the Bucs. Its offense’s average per play (6.83 yards) is unmatched and far exceeds Tampa Bay’s (5.6, 21st best.)

10-3 IN LAST 13 GB ATS PICKS | +662

2-0-1 IN LAST 3 TB ATS PICKS | +200

CLEVELAND +3.5
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
TUE 10/13
Pittsburgh is a good-but-not-great team unlikely to stay unbeaten straight-up much longer. Receiving more than a field goal in a setting with a minuscule crowd — last Sunday’s numbered about 5,000 — is inviting. The Browns shrugged off the loss of RB Nick Chubb with 124 rushing yards and 32 points against the No.1-ranked defense (Indy) and stands fourth in league scoring at 31.2 ppg. The Steelers have fattened their 4-0 record with a soft schedule — the Giants, Broncos, Texans and Eagles have won an aggregate three games — and have traveled just once.

4-1 IN LAST 5 CLE ATS PICKS | +290

2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ATS PICKS | +100

CAROLINA -2.5
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
TUE 10/13
Who needs Christian McCaffrey? When the Swiss army knife star went down with an injury, the Panthers were widely considered toast. Instead, they’ve gone from 0-2 to 3-2 straight-up with a combination of under-appreciated QB Teddy Bridgewater, fill-in RB Mike Davis and crafty first-year coach Matt Rhule. The Bears have reached 4-1 SU with smoke and mirrors. They rank 27th in scoring and figure to remain so, if not drop, against the No. 5-rated pass defense. As a Saint last season, Bridgewater was sharp against the Bears.

7-2 IN LAST 9 CHI ATS PICKS | +476

4-2 IN LAST 6 CAR ATS PICKS | +188
 

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#12
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
TUE 10/13

L.A. RAMS -3.5
L.A. RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/18 | 8:20 PM EDT
Los Angeles does a fantastic job of getting out of the gate early on offense. So much so that it puts a lot of strain on the opposing offense to match the pace. Judging by how ineffective San Francisco's offense has been the last couple of weeks, the 49ers may not be built to do that just yet. Expect Aaron Donald and that Rams defense to continue to keep the 49ers running in place.

16-5 IN LAST 21 NFL ATS PICKS | +1065
18-12-2 IN LAST 32 LAR ATS PICKS | +478

3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ATS PICKS | +300
 

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#13
Larry Hartstein

MINNESOTA -3.5
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:19 PM
Even though Atlanta made a coaching change, I like the Vikings to pour it on the defenseless Falcons. Minnesota is 12-0 ATS at home following a loss, and this offense is clicking with an average of 29 points the past three games. Alexander Mattison isn't Dalvin Cook, but he's more than capable. Lay it.

6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
19-5-1 IN LAST 25 MIN ATS PICKS | +1345

21-12 IN LAST 33 ATL ATS PICKS | +755


UNDER 54.5
DETROIT @ JACKSONVILLE | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:52 AM
Getting a key number here and I'm going Under. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per play. Jacksonville is poised to get back three defensive starters who sat out against Houston, while Jags No. 1 wideout D.J. Chark is dealing with an ankle injury that might sideline him. Go Under.

6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL PICKS | +275
 

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#14
R.J. White

SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
L.A. RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/18 | 8:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:02 PM
It's hard to back the 49ers after what we saw last week, but this line has moved so much off the lookahead number of 49ers -3 that I don't think we have a choice. Has the gap between these teams grown 6.5 points in one week? Or did the 49ers just have one of those games where everything goes wrong and isn't indicative of their true talent? While Jimmy Garoppolo struggled last week, it's important to note he still wasn't close to 100% and he didn't suffer any setbacks. I expect the 49ers defense to rebound and the offense to move the ball against a Rams defense that is far better defending the pass than the run. Love getting the hook with the 49ers here.

6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +285
30-13-1 IN LAST 44 LAR ATS PICKS | +1536

16-10 IN LAST 26 SF ATS PICKS | +505


PITTSBURGH -3
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:31 PM
The Browns have hit peak market price with four straight wins to their name, and now seems like the perfect time to fade. They're up against a team I think is clearly a tier above, and it's a bad matchup as the Steelers rank second in yards per rush allowed and first in rush defense DVOA. So Baker Mayfield, who looked banged up near the end of last week's game, will have to do the heavy lifting, but the Browns pass offense has been average, while the Steelers pass offense has not. I worry about the Browns' ability to play catch-up if needed; they haven't been down big in any of their four wins, but they might face that scenario against a strong D here.

6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +285
20-10 IN LAST 30 PIT ATS PICKS | +885

14-9-2 IN LAST 25 CLE ATS PICKS | +407

DENVER +10
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:00 PM
It's big that the Patriots are getting Cam Newton back, but let's not overlook the Broncos also seeing the return of their star quarterback, Drew Lock. Also noteworthy is that Noah Fant was able to practice to start the week after being ruled out for the Week 5 matchup that didn't happen. Those players should help the Broncos keep this game within single digits against a Patriots team that has looked good but not quite to their normal level of play. Newton's offense may struggle against a defense that has played well (sixth in points per drive, third in red-zone success rate), and that'll help keep us inside the number.

6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +285
 

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#15
Bill Marzano

MINNESOTA -3.5
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:02 PM
The Minnesota Vikings are 1-4, but they are much better than the record indicates. The Vikings have won four straight meetings and surely don’t want to be the first team to lose to the Falcons. Atlanta is having all kinds of problems on and off the field, but it begins with the defense that ranks 31st in the league in total yards and passing yards, and is 30th in points allowed per game. Minnesota could easily be 3-2 or 4-1, and after last week’s tough loss at Seattle, the Vikings are going to pound Atlanta here. The Falcons are banged up and look like a team that has already given up.

13-10 IN LAST 23 NFL ATS PICKS | +210

TENNESSEE -3
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:44 PM
The Tennessee Titans have experienced an incredible couple of weeks, and they just mauled the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills. The Titans have the benefit of playing at home on a short week, plus facing the 1-4 Houston Texans isn’t going to hurt. The Texans are really struggling on both sides of the football and recently fired their head coach. Tennessee is a very physical football team with a brutal rushing attack. Derrick Henry is going to feast on a 31st-ranked rush defense that allows 160 yards per game. To make matters worse for Houston, the Texans have the 30th-ranked rushing offense. Ryan Tannehill has nine TDs and one INT.

13-10 IN LAST 23 NFL ATS PICKS | +210
3-1 IN LAST 4 HOU ATS PICKS | +190

2-1 IN LAST 3 TEN ATS PICKS | +89

OVER 51
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:16 PM
The Steelers have a very tough task vs. the Browns, who are off to one of their best starts in years. This game should have plenty of scoring. The Over is a combined 7-2, and after watching the Philadelphia offense move the ball at will vs. this Steelers defense, look for the Browns to follow a similar game plan. Cleveland has the number one rushing offense in the NFL and ranks fourth in scoring. The Browns also allow nearly 30 points per game. Cleveland put up 32 points vs. a very good Colts defense last week. The Steelers are averaging just under 30 per contest. Ben Roethlisberger has 10 TDs and one INT.

4-2-1 IN LAST 7 NFL O/U PICKS | +180
MIAMI -10
N.Y. JETS @ MIAMI | 10/18 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:48 PM
The Dolphins will have to avoid a “letdown” here vs the winless Jets, who rank last in the NFL in scoring at 15 points per game. New York ranks 31st in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just over 32 per game. The Jets are 0-7 in games not started by Sam Darnold. New York doesn’t have the weapons to move the ball on a consistent basis and the defense can’t get off the field. The Jets are 0-5 ATS this year and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC opponents. Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six games in Week 6.

13-10 IN LAST 23 NFL ATS PICKS | +210
3-0 IN LAST 3 NYJ ATS PICKS | +300

L.A. RAMS -3.5
L.A. RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/18 | 8:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:29 PM
The Rams are off to a 4-1 start, with their only loss being to the Bills by three points. San Francisco is struggling and the team is banged up at several key positions, including QB. The 49ers were hammered at home by the Dolphins last week. They now face a Rams team that is doing a great job spreading the ball around while executing some terrific play-calling. Los Angeles ranks third in scoring defense, allowing just 18 points per game. The Rams are second against the pass. The Los Angeles defensive line should force a critical turnover or two.

13-10 IN LAST 23 NFL ATS PICKS | +210
4-1 IN LAST 5 LAR ATS PICKS | +295
 

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#16
Hank Goldberg

L.A. RAMS -3.5
L.A. RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/18 | 8:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:21 PM
The 49ers don't have a quarterback at the moment. Jared Goff, on the other hand, isn't turning the ball over and the Rams are executing a great controlled passing game. They're among the best teams in all of football. This would have been a good game if San Fran had a healthy QB.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +285
15-8-1 IN LAST 24 LAR ATS PICKS | +631

3-2 IN LAST 5 SF ATS PICKS | +78

NEW ENGLAND -10
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:19 PM
I think Cam Newton is going to play. The Pats have a good running game and a strong defense, while Denver doesn't have a QB who can play. The Patriots can name the score.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +285
11-3 IN LAST 14 NE ATS PICKS | +766

3-0 IN LAST 3 DEN ATS PICKS | +300

GREEN BAY -2
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY | 10/18 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:16 PM
The Packers can score on anyone, and I think Tampa Bay's defense is overrated anyway. Tom Brady is having trouble while Aaron Rodgers is on fire. Lay the small number.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +285
11-5 IN LAST 16 GB ATS PICKS | +556

7-4-4 IN LAST 15 TB ATS PICKS | +257

CHICAGO +2.5
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA | 10/18 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:13 PM
The Bears' defense is playing well, Nick Foles was decent against Tampa Bay and I like Chicago in this spot. Mike Davis and Teddy Bridgewater are going to have a tough time against this defense. Take the points.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +285
 

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#17
Pete Prisco

All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)
The Texans got their first victory of the year last week against Jacksonville, but this is a big step up. The Titans are playing on a short week, which is tough. But they impressed against Buffalo and will impress here. The Titans take it.

Pick: Titans 30, Texans 23

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
This is the game of the week. But the Browns haven't won at Pittsburgh since 2003. Why would that change here? Cleveland is a run-heavy team that will want to control the clock, but that won't happen in this one. The Steelers, meanwhile, will have success throwing it. Steelers take it.

Pick: Steelers 31, Browns 21

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Ravens haven't quite played as well on offense this season as expected. But that will change against the Eagles. Look for Lamar Jackson to have a big day against the Eagles secondary. The Ravens defense will also get the best of the Philly offense. Ravens win it big.

Pick: Ravens 29, Eagles 20

Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-2.5)
This is the dog game of the week. The Giants haven't won yet and the Redskins have one victory. The Giants showed some life last week against the Cowboys, which will carry over. The Giants will win their first game.

Pick: Giants 23, Redskins 17

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Raheem Morris takes over as Falcons coach with the firing of Dan Quinn. Can he bring some life to this team? The defense is woeful, and now must face a Vikings offense that can run it, even without Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are home for the first time in two weeks and they will find a way to win this one. It might be closer than expected.

Pick: Vikings 27, Falcons 26

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matthew Stafford isn't putting up big numbers, but that will change against Jacksonville. The Jaguars have major issues on defense and Stafford will light them up. The Jaguars will also be able to move the ball and score some points. This will be a high-scoring game, but it's the Lions who will win it.

Pick: Lions 36, Jaguars 28

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-8)
This is another tough road test for the Bengals, who were beat up last week by the Ravens. The Colts lost to the Browns last week and Philip Rivers didn't play well. He will here. Look for the Colts to bounce back.

Pick: Colts 24, Bengals 13

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
This is surprisingly a big game between two good teams. The Panthers have impressed on both offense and defense and the young defense should be able slow Nick Foles and the gang. Teddy Bridgewater keeps on winning.

Pick: Panthers 27, Bears 17

News York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9)
This game was moved from Week 9 in the COVID scheduling changes. That's good news for Miami. The Jets are a mess. The Dolphins played well last week in blowing out the 49ers. That will continue here as the Dolphins beat former coach Adam Gase.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Jets 14

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady. It doesn't get any better than that — even at their advanced ages. The Packers are coming off a bye, while the Bucs played last Thursday. The Packers are really rolling on offense, which is why I think Rodgers will get the best of this one. The Packers will stay undefeated.

Pick: Packers 34, Bucs 30

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are so banged up and they are playing poorly. They have quarterback issues, which is never a good thing. The Rams went 4-0 against the NFC East, but that's a bad division. They are playing well, which is why they will win this game. Jared Goff has a big game. The 49ers are a mess.

Pick: Rams 30, 49ers 20

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-9.5)
This game was postponed because of Covid, which can help the Patriots because they could have Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore back. The Broncos didn't look great in beating the Jets a few weeks ago, so look for them to struggle here. New England wins, no matter who plays quarterback. If it's Newton, they win big.

Pick: Patriots 31, Broncos 17