Sunday Sweats: Five bets to add to your NFL Week 14 card
By Case Keefer
Inches feels like an overestimation. It was more like centimeters that separated the prop bet in last week’s Sunday Sweats from cashing.
I had Melvin Gordon to score a touchdown, and it appeared the Broncos running back had gotten in the end zone in the second quarter on a seven-yard run against the Chiefs. He was ruled just short, but then burst through anyway for a clear score on the next play.
But wait — a flag.
Illegal shift. No touchdown.
Tough break, not once but twice, back-to-back. That’s the fun of gambling.
Read this week’s column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (10-7, $209.10): Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals over 42.5 (South Point)
These are two of the worst four defenses in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. I realize the Bengals and Cowboys are also mediocre on offense, but they’re not so bad that they shouldn’t be able to score in this matchup. The opposing defense for each unit is the worst the offenses have faced in more than two months. With the weather also relatively clear in Cincinnati, this game looks like a sneaky over.
Two-team Teaser (8-5, $159.77): Bears +7.5 & Steelers +8 -120 (William Hill)
The Steelers are an ideal teaser side this week. Even if they lose, it’s unlikely to be by more than a touchdown in what looks like a low-scoring game in Buffalo. The trick becomes figuring out which of the many other standard teaser options on the board would be the best to pair Pittsburgh with. I would have said Tennessee earlier in the week but, given Jacksonville’s sporadic ability to show up and look competent, I’m having second thoughts. I landed on Chicago because its game against Houston should be another low-scoring affair where the key numbers the 6-point teaser passes through become even more valuable.
Moneyline parlay (7-6, $1,349.26): Chiefs & Ravens +118 (William Hill)
Forget the records, I still think these are ultimately the two best teams in the AFC. At least if they play up to their peaks. And with four regular-season weeks to go and major playoff implications for both teams, it’s time to play up to their peaks. It also helps that I’m not high on either side’s opponent. The time is right to sell high on Cleveland coming off of its best performance of the year and into a matchup where it tends struggle, with Baltimore. Miami, on the other hand, has overachieved and looks unlikely to be able to keep up with Kansas City’s offense.
Prop-hunting (12-12, -$36.71): Mike Evans to score a touchdown +115 (Boyd)
Out of a bye week, Tampa Bay should be sharp and ready to score big on Minnesota. The Vikings’ defense has gotten much better since the start of the year, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the league against No. 1 receivers by DVOA. Evans shouldn’t be available at a plus price. Part of the reason why might be is because he’s dealing with hamstring injury, but all indications are that the Buccaneers have just been playing it safe with Evans at practice. He should be ready to go against the Vikings.
Non-football play (7-6, $128.30): Patrick Reed to win DP World Tour Championship +275 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
It’s Patrick Reed and then everyone else going into the final round of this week’s European Tour event in Dubai. Reed came into the tournament as the favorite to win and now sits tied atop the leaderboard with Matthew Fitzpatrick and Laurie Canter despite a so-so day on Saturday. Reed, an eight-time professional winner, knows how to finish, though. It won’t be a so-so day on Sunday. I’m surprised he’s available at this high of a price.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 44-36, $1,809.72
By Case Keefer
Inches feels like an overestimation. It was more like centimeters that separated the prop bet in last week’s Sunday Sweats from cashing.
I had Melvin Gordon to score a touchdown, and it appeared the Broncos running back had gotten in the end zone in the second quarter on a seven-yard run against the Chiefs. He was ruled just short, but then burst through anyway for a clear score on the next play.
But wait — a flag.
Illegal shift. No touchdown.
Tough break, not once but twice, back-to-back. That’s the fun of gambling.
Read this week’s column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (10-7, $209.10): Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals over 42.5 (South Point)
These are two of the worst four defenses in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. I realize the Bengals and Cowboys are also mediocre on offense, but they’re not so bad that they shouldn’t be able to score in this matchup. The opposing defense for each unit is the worst the offenses have faced in more than two months. With the weather also relatively clear in Cincinnati, this game looks like a sneaky over.
Two-team Teaser (8-5, $159.77): Bears +7.5 & Steelers +8 -120 (William Hill)
The Steelers are an ideal teaser side this week. Even if they lose, it’s unlikely to be by more than a touchdown in what looks like a low-scoring game in Buffalo. The trick becomes figuring out which of the many other standard teaser options on the board would be the best to pair Pittsburgh with. I would have said Tennessee earlier in the week but, given Jacksonville’s sporadic ability to show up and look competent, I’m having second thoughts. I landed on Chicago because its game against Houston should be another low-scoring affair where the key numbers the 6-point teaser passes through become even more valuable.
Moneyline parlay (7-6, $1,349.26): Chiefs & Ravens +118 (William Hill)
Forget the records, I still think these are ultimately the two best teams in the AFC. At least if they play up to their peaks. And with four regular-season weeks to go and major playoff implications for both teams, it’s time to play up to their peaks. It also helps that I’m not high on either side’s opponent. The time is right to sell high on Cleveland coming off of its best performance of the year and into a matchup where it tends struggle, with Baltimore. Miami, on the other hand, has overachieved and looks unlikely to be able to keep up with Kansas City’s offense.
Prop-hunting (12-12, -$36.71): Mike Evans to score a touchdown +115 (Boyd)
Out of a bye week, Tampa Bay should be sharp and ready to score big on Minnesota. The Vikings’ defense has gotten much better since the start of the year, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the league against No. 1 receivers by DVOA. Evans shouldn’t be available at a plus price. Part of the reason why might be is because he’s dealing with hamstring injury, but all indications are that the Buccaneers have just been playing it safe with Evans at practice. He should be ready to go against the Vikings.
Non-football play (7-6, $128.30): Patrick Reed to win DP World Tour Championship +275 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
It’s Patrick Reed and then everyone else going into the final round of this week’s European Tour event in Dubai. Reed came into the tournament as the favorite to win and now sits tied atop the leaderboard with Matthew Fitzpatrick and Laurie Canter despite a so-so day on Saturday. Reed, an eight-time professional winner, knows how to finish, though. It won’t be a so-so day on Sunday. I’m surprised he’s available at this high of a price.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 44-36, $1,809.72