UFC 10/31


Well-known member
Kyle Marley

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva

Odds from William Hill

Uriah Hall (-220) vs. Anderson Silva (+190): Hall by TKO

Silva in his prime was one of the best, if not the best fighter of all time. He felt untouchable back in his day and he will go down as one of the GOATs regardless of the outcome Saturday. Now, he is 45 and his only win since 2012 was a close decision that could have went the other way. This is his easiest matchup since but it is too late. Hall should be the faster, more powerful striker and this fight should stay standing. I think Silva would have smoked Hall if both were in their primes but, alas, this isn't the case.

Bryce Mitchell (-150) vs. Andre Fili (+130): Mitchell by submission

Mitchell has quickly turned into my second-favorite grappler in the UFC behind Charles Oliveira. Two fights ago, Mitchell pulled off the second-ever Twister submission in the UFC. In his last fight, he mopped the floor with his opponent for the entire 15 minutes and all his opponent landed were five significant strikes. I am picking Mitchell to beat most of the division on the ground, but Fili is a tough test there. He also has the edge in the striking as well as experience. Mitchell is going to need to get this fight to the mat to win and, although he might face a little more resistance than in his last fight, look for him to do so.

Kevin Holland (-150) vs. Makhmud Muradov (+130): Muradov by decision

I give the edge on the ground to Holland which is why I think he is favored. On the feet, this is closer to 50-50 and I might even give a small edge to Muradov. Holland does not go for takedowns as much as he should, and he might be satisfied with striking for 15 minutes. If that is the case, there is no way I would lay the juice on Holland. Holland is too inactive and doesn't have the sharpest fight IQ, so this is a fight that I can see being 29-28 either way and I would rather get plus money if it's basically a toss-up.

Greg Hardy (-320) vs. Maurice Greene (+260): Green by submission

Hardy should have the edge in the striking and maybe it's enough to favor him more than 75 percent of the time like the price indicates. However, Greene has the edge on the ground and, if he can get it there, he is live for a submission upset. Taking that into account, it's hard to line Hardy as a 3-1 favorite. Greene can keep this fight close on the feet as well, so I wouldn't count him out there, he just has a real edge on the mat. My pick here is being swayed by the odds, which suggest value on the underdog.

Bobby Green (-280) vs. Thiago Moises (+240): Green by decision

Both guys can hang in either area, but Green has the edge on the feet and Moises has the edge on the ground. Moises isn't a great wrestler though so it's hard to count on this fight hitting the mat, and Green does have a big enough edge to favor him in this matchup. This betting line does look a bit too wide and it almost swayed me into picking Moises here. I'd still say dog or pass but the pick is Green.

Alexander Hernandez (-350) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (+290): Hernandez by decision

Gruetzemacher looked great in his last fight, while Hernandez was stopped. Their opponents had a lot to do with those outcomes and I was hoping to get a decent number on Hernandez because of the recency bias. But oddsmakers weren't fooled and I agree with Hernandez being a big favorite because I think he is better everywhere in this matchup.

Adrian Yanez (-350) vs. Victor Rodriguez (+290): Yanez by TKO

Yanez's hands are legit and he's clearly the better striker. Rodriguez is going to need to use his wrestling and that is his path to victory. He is taking this UFC debut fight on short notice, so he might not have the gas tank for as much wrestling as he would need to win a decision. Yanez has looked like the real deal and I think he gets a knockout before Round 3.

Sean Strickland (-320) vs. Jack Marshman (+260): Strickland via submission

Strickland is one of my most confident picks on the card. I think he has a decent edge anywhere this fight goes. Marshman is purely a striker and he is the bigger guy, with this being Strickland's first fight at 185 pounds. However, aside from a knockout, I don't see how Marshman wins and Strickland should have a huge edge on the mat.

Jason Witt (-140) vs. Cole Williams (+120): Witt by decision

This is a low-level fight and the loser probably won't get another shot in the UFC. This should be a striker versus wrestler matchup with Witt having the wrestling edge. Williams has been fighting basically one time a year and he is now 36 years old. I am siding with the wrestler because I think he is the all-around better fighter who is more active and invested in the sport.

Dustin Jacoby (-320) vs. Justin Ledet (+260): Jacoby by decision

This should be a striking match for as long as it lasts. Either guy could look for a takedown if they are in trouble or they are losing the striking battle. But overall, both guys prefer to strike. Jacoby is a kickboxer and Ledet is a boxer. Either guy could get knocked out, but Jacoby should have more tools in his toolbox and I would favor him to win in a decision as well.

Cortney Casey (-240) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+200): Casey by decision

This should be a fight that mainly stays standing. Casey should have the volume and speed edge and she is the more technical striker as well. Cachoeira has the power edge though and she will probably be the one landing the harder shots. Either could land takedowns but striking is what they are best at. I am going to side with Casey to win 2 or 3 rounds.

Miles Johns (-175) vs. Kevin Nativdad (+155): Johns by decision

Johns' best attribute is his wrestling, but he seems to be a wrestler who has fallen in love with his striking. He does have power but that is really the best part of his striking. Natividad looks to be the more technical striker and he might generate the higher volume as well. This fight is close on the feet, but the wrestling edge is why Johns is the favorite and he is the pick.

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