Well-known member
Kyle Marley


Marley has hit 21 of his last 25 UFC main-event picks, a stretch that included five consecutive upsets! At UFC 253 on Saturday, he accurately predicted a stoppage victory for middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (-170) against Paulo Costa (+150) in the main event.

Here are Marley's picks for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana (odds from William Hill US).

Holly Holm (-125) vs. Irene Aldana (+105): Aldana by decision

This should be a 25-minute striking match. Holm will likely be trying to keep this fight on the outside and pick her spots, while Aldana will be the one pressing forward and pushing the pace. Holm has never been a volume striker. She has just been a better and more technical striker than most of her opponents. That might not be the case in this one. Aldana is a good striker with solid movement and it would be a bit surprising if Holm landed more volume. Aldana is a bit too hittable, so Holm can change rounds with a big shot or land the knockout. However, if this goes the distance Aldana should be the one getting her hand raised.

Yorgan de Castro (-260) vs. Carlos Felipe (+220): Felipe by TKO

These are big boys and one of them will likely get knocked out. Neither are great talents and it could just come down to who lands that big shot first. Castro is not the type of heavyweight I would want to lay close to 3-1 on against basically anybody in the division. Felipe can come out of the gates hot and I think he will be going for the kill first. He is the younger guy as well, and there isn't anything about de Castro's game that makes this a clear pick for him. I think Felipe is a live underdog who is capable of both a stoppage or a decision.

Germaine de Randamie (-115) vs. Julianna Pena (-105): de Randamie by decision

De Randamie should dominate the striking and possibly get a knockout, while Pena should dominate the grappling and possibly get a submission. De Randamie might be the best woman's striker in the UFC and Pena really has nothing for her in that regard. De Randamie can stuff takedowns and work back to her feet, so I think this will be on the feet longer than Pena would like. She might get put away if she gets worn out constantly going for takedowns.

Dusko Todrovic (-310) vs. Dequan Townsend (+255): Todorovic by decision

Todorovic is making his UFC debut and the UFC set him up with a winnable fight. Townsend has looked pretty bad so far in his 0-3 UFC stint and, with another loss, could be handed the pink slip. Todorovic is the better striker and this fight should be one that mainly stays standing. However, Todorovic looks to be a little too hittable and Townsend does have knockout power. Townsend is also the more experienced fighter and he has to fight like his job is on the line. It wouldn't shock me to see him get the knockout upset, but Todorovic is the pick.

Jordan Williams (-140) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+120): Imavov via TKO

This is one of my favorite fights on the card and it is my pick for Fight of the Night. Imavov looks like the more technical striker and the more dangerous grappler. Williams looks like the more powerful striker, with more volume and better wrestling. Imavov looks like the more talented prospect, so at these odds it is dog or pass for me.

Court McGee (-125) vs. Carlos Condit (+105): Condit by decision

This would have been a fun fight 10 years ago. Now, these guys are nearing the end of their careers, with Condit being 0-5 and McGee being 1-4 in their last five fights.. We really have no idea what we are getting with these two now, but there is no way I would want to lay juice on either of them. I also think this fight should mainly stay on the feet and Condit is the better striker. McGee can mix in takedowns or win on volume, but Condit is the pick in a close, 15-minute striking battle.

Charles Jourdain (-440) vs. Josh Culibao (+360): Jourdain by TKO

Culibao got dominated in his UFC debut and now he is almost a 4-1 underdog in another spot where he could get dominated again. Jourdain is a solid striker and is dangerous on the feet. This should be the fight that he wants, and he shouldn't have to worry about takedowns. I would expect Culibao to look better than he did in his last fight, but this is a tough task here and he probably gets finished along the way.

Kyler Phillips (-440) vs. Cameron Else (+360): Phillips via TKO

Phillips looked amazing in his UFC debut and it shows with this betting line. This is going to be Else's UFC debut and it is by far his toughest test to date. Else looks aggressive and he has knockout power and decent grappling. Phillips just looks like he is better, faster and more dangerous everywhere. Else is going to need a big knockout shot or a quick choke to pull off this win and that is too tough of a task.

Loma Lookboonmee (-135) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+115): Lookboonmee by decision

This should be a fairly high-level striking match. Frey is the more experienced fighter with a small height and reach advantage, but Lookboonmee is 11 years younger and might be a decent prospect. Lookboonmee should be the one with more output on the feet and she is also more likely to look for takedowns. We probably see the full 15 minutes here and my pick is for Lookboonmee to win at least two of those three rounds.

Casey Kenney (-290) vs. Heili Alateng (+245): Kenney by decision

Kenney should be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. He is the better striker and he should be the one landing more volume. Alateng is going to look for takedowns a lot, but Kenney should be the better wrestler and grappler as well. It's hard to see Alateng having much success there and Kenney would likely get back to his feet instead of Alateng submitting him. This is a favorite-or-pass fight for me and Kenney is a solid parlay piece.

Luigi Vendramini (-115) vs. Jessin Ayari (-105): Vendramini by decision

Both guys are making their returns after a two-year layoff and coming off losses, so it is hard to know what we will get from them. Vendramini looks like the more dangerous striker and grappler, but Ayari is the better point fighter. If this fight ends inside the distance, Vendramini is more likely to get his hand raised. If this fight goes to the judges, then Ayari is probably more likely to win. I was more impressed with what I saw from Vendramini years ago and he is the younger fighter by four years, so he is more likely to have improved and he is the pick.