Sunday Services

Show*Time

Well-known member
#21
R.J. White

Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest

When you're looking for advice on whom to pick on gameday in the NFL, nobody beats R.J. White. In fact, if you placed $100 on each of R.J. White's NFL spread picks since the start of the 2017 season, you'd be up more than $2,200. Smart bettors tail his selections.

White has been SportsLine's top pro football analyst for three-plus seasons. Over that span, the CBS Sports NFL editor and nationally recognized NFL Draft expert has gone 323-271 on against-the-spread picks, returning $2,218. Anyone who has followed him is WAY UP.

In the last five years the stats guru, whose picks are coveted by fans everywhere, has cashed huge twice in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. From 2015 through '19 White went 233-174-18 in the SuperContest, nailing more than 57 percent of his picks and cashing in 2015 and '17.

Because of the coronavirus pandemic, White did not travel to Las Vegas to enter this year's contest. But he is still offering his five weekly SuperContest picks to SportsLine members.

Using the Las Vegas SuperContest lines for Week 11, we can tell you White loves the Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) to cover at the New Orleans Saints. (See the current NFL lines for every Week 11 game on our NFL odds page.)

"I liked the Falcons earlier in the week and would've jumped all over the number had I known Taysom Hill would be starting this game," White tells SportsLine. "The lookahead line for this matchup was Saints -7, and you need to adjust more than four points for the drop from Drew Brees to Hill based on what we've seen so far from the versatile offensive weapon. The Falcons are playing well under Raheem Morris, but the one area where they've had consistent trouble is running the ball. That wasn't going to happen anyway against an elite Saints rush defense. With the Atlanta offense healthy, the Falcons will do enough to cover this number and could win outright unless Hill has a hidden gear we don't know about."

White also loves a game in which "the matchup is just too perfect" for the road team. Which team it is may surprise you. Anyone who uses this team could hit it BIG.

Here are White's picks and analysis:

Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) at New Orleans Saints
I liked the Falcons earlier in the week and would've jumped all over the number had I known Taysom Hill would be starting this game. The lookahead line for this matchup was Saints -7, and you need to adjust more than four points for the drop from Drew Brees to Hill based on what we've seen so far from the versatile offensive weapon. The Falcons are playing well under Raheem Morris, but the one area where they've had consistent trouble is running the ball. That wasn't going to happen anyway against an elite Saints rush defense. With the Atlanta offense healthy, the Falcons will do enough to cover this number and could win outright unless Hill has a hidden gear we don't know about.

Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
After dropping during the week, this line steamed back up after six Titans were ruled out, but I think the absence of those players matters less than the Ravens likely being without Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. That should give Derrick Henry the opportunity to have a big game on the ground and keep an offense that was already scoring 17 to 24 points in tough matchups from being shut down. On the other side, the Ravens have suffered losses on their offensive line this year that have lowered the ceiling for the offense, and that should keep them in range of Tennessee all game at the worst and possibly playing catch up if Henry and Ryan Tannehill can consistently beat an undermanned Baltimore defense.

New England Patriots (-1.5) at Houston Texans
With this line moving well off the lookahead number and the Patriots coming off a big win on national TV, this is the type of spot where I'd look to fade the favorite. But the matchup is just too perfect for the Pats, taking a dangerous rushing attack into a game against the league's worst run defense. The Texans have given up 200-plus rushing yards three times this year, and their only two wins have come against the Jaguars. I trust Bill Belichick to solve this limited offense and walk away with another win, and getting this number under -3 is a definite value for bettors, though I'm not ready to fully buy into the Patriots being a playoff-caliber team.

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
With Davante Adams and Jaire Alexander avoiding final injury tags on Friday, the Packers are the more talented team in this matchup. Adams is one of the best receivers in football, while Alexander ranks as Pro Football Focus' No. 1 cornerback on the season. Each can provide problems for a Colts team that struggles against good secondaries (19 points vs. Bears, 10 points vs. Ravens) and quality receivers, though Indianapolis hasn't been tested by anyone nearly as good as Adams this year. We're getting great value off the lookahead line, which had the Packers favored, and the final score in Green Bay's win over Jacksonville was a bit of a mirage. I love getting points with the Packers in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers face a tall task in this game, as they'll be up against a Rams defense that ranks first in net yards per attempt and points per drive. But a lot of that success has been built against bad teams, with the Rams ranking only eighth in defensive DVOA. You know who's first in that statistic? The Bucs, who dominated the Panthers on the road last week. They blitz more than any team, and Jared Goff struggles mightily against the blitz. That'll keep the Rams point total down, and I think the Bucs offense can do enough against the Rams to get the cover, though you should try to get 3.5 and don't bother playing at more than 4.
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#22
SportsLine Computer

Week 11 Survivor pick: Minnesota over Dallas




SportsLine Computer

Office Pool Picks

Sunday, Nov. 22

Saints 29, Falcons 24
Bengals 26, Washington 25
Lions 30, Panthers 27
Texans 24, Patriots 23
Browns 26, Eagles 20
Steelers 32, Jaguars 16
Ravens 25, Titans 19
Colts 27, Packers 22
Chargers 29, Jets 19
Dolphins 29, Broncos 21
Vikings 32, Cowboys 22
Chiefs 34, Raiders 24

Monday, Nov. 23

Buccaneers 26, Rams 24
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#24
MTI 5* teaser
bengals +7 1/2- packers +8



MTI

4.5-Star Bengals +1.5 over Redskins
4-Star Saints -4 over Falcons -
4-Star Eagles +2.5 over Browns
5-Star Chiefs at Raiders Under 57
4.5-Star Jets at Chargers Over 46.5
4-Star Steelers at Jacksonville UNDER 46 -
4-Star Eagles at Browns OVER 47
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#26
RALPH MICHAELS



  • Game: (457) New England Patriots at (458) Houston Texans
    Date/Time: Nov 22 2020 1:00 PM EST
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: New England Patriots -1.5 (-110)

    3% New England -1.5
  • Game: (459) Pittsburgh Steelers at (460) Jacksonville Jaguars
    Date/Time: Nov 22 2020 1:00 PM EST
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: Total Under 46.0 (-110)

    3% UNDER 46 Pittsburgh/Jacksonville
  • Game: (475) Miami Dolphins at (476) Denver Broncos
    Date/Time: Nov 22 2020 4:05 PM EST
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: Total Under 46.0 (-110)

    3% UNDER 46 Denver/ Miami
  • Game: (469) Dallas Cowboys at (470) Minnesota Vikings
    Date/Time: Nov 22 2020 4:25 PM EST
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: Minnesota Vikings 0.0 (-130)

    Two TEAM 7 POINT TEASER
    Minnesota pk & Kansas CIty -0.5
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#27
Nov 22Oskeim Sports4%[NFL] (451) Philadelphia Eagles at (452) Cleveland Browns

Time: 1:00 PM ESTPhiladelphia Eagles +3.0 (-115)Analysis: The line in this game implies that Cleveland is 8 points better than the Giants after the market moved the opening line of -2 to its current number of -3 earlier in the week. Of course, that conclusion is patently ridiculous which is why the inherent line value dictates an investment on the Eagles. My math model only favors Cleveland by 0.43 points in this game and the Browns have failed to cover the Vegas number in each of their past four games. The Browns are also 6-20-1 ATS in November affairs (0-5 ATS L/5) and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.

Philadelphia's offense is finally getting healthy Alshon Jeffery, Jalen Reagor, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedart, and possibly even Zach Ertz healthy together for the first time all season this week. The Eagles' offensive line is also getting healthier and Cleveland placed star defensive end, Myles Garrett, on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday. Garrett, who is out Sunday, leads the league with 9.5 sacks; the rest of the team combined has only 12.5 sacks. Garrett also has an NFL-best four forced fumbles.

Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has not thrown a touchdown pass in each of his past two games and finished with fewer than 150 passing yards in both contests. Mayfield ranks 29th in completion percentage at 61.3 (behind Nick Foles and Daniel Jones) and 24th in quarterback rating at 90.0 (behind Philip Rivers and Gardner Minshew).

Mayfield has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass attempt against defenses that rank in the top third of the league in pressure rate since 2018. He has a 9-8 TD-INT ratio in those contests and the Browns are 2-6 in those games. Why are those metrics important? The Eagles rank No. 6 this season in pressure rate. Philadelphia also possesses an underrated run defense that is permitting an average of just 79.2 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, ninth in the NFL.
Grab the live road underdog and invest with confidence.Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
DateExpertRatingGamePlayNov 22Oskeim Sports4%[NFL] (465) Tennessee Titans at (466) Baltimore Ravens

Time: 1:00 PM ESTTennessee Titans +6.5 (-110)Analysis: The scheduling circumstances strongly favor Tennessee, who enters this game with extra rest after playing the Colts last Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Ravens are dealing with a plethora of injuries at key positions, enter off a 23-17 loss to New England and have a huge game against Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving (96 hours after this contest). Baltimore is a money-burning 0-8 ATS since September 26, 2010 as a home favorite following a game in which it scored at least seven points less than the betting market expected.

After New England sliced and diced the Ravens on the ground last week, I expect Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel to follow a similar gameplan behind Derrick Henry. Henry is averaging 115.7 rushing yards in three road games this season and finished with 195 rushing yards against the Ravens last January. Baltimore could be without nose tackle Brandon Williams, which is significant in that the Ravens have allowed an average of 165.1 yards rushing in the past seven games with Williams sidelined.

The Titans offense is ranked 5th in the league in Football Outsiders Adjusted Rush DVOA, 2nd in Football Outsiders Adjusted Pass DVOA and third in Football Outsiders Total DVOA (20.8%). Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson has regressed this season, averaging a full yard per pass play less than he did in 2019. Jackson is completing just 38.8% of his passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield this season, 26th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in the NFL.

Part of Jackson's struggles could be the decline of Baltimore's offensive line, which is missing All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who suffered a season-ending injury, and Pro Bowl right guard Marshall Yanda, who retired during the offseason. Jackson has been pressured on 37% of his dropbacks this season, which is a significant increase from 2019.
From a technical standpoint, Tennessee is a profitable 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and 18-9-2 ATS following a loss since 2016. In contrast, Baltimore is 5-13 ATS in its last eighteen games as a home favorite and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off a loss, while Lamar Jackson is 5-11 ATS as a favorite.

With Tennessee standing at 6-1 ATS in its previous seven road games versus teams with a winning home record, grab the points with the Titans and invest with confidence.Betting Line Provider: Heritage
DateExpertRatingGamePlayNov 22Oskeim Sports4%[NFL] (477) New York Jets at (478) Los Angeles Chargers

Time: 4:05 PM ESTNew York Jets +9.0 (-115)Analysis: How is a two-win team that has lost seven of its last eight games laying close to double-digits to a conference opponent? New York applies to a very good 28-7 ATS contrarian system of mine that invests on certain winless road teams off a home loss as underdogs provided they covered the point spread in the game. The Jets also fall into a contrarian 40-13 ATS situation that invests on certain road underdogs off six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13.

NFL teams that are three or more games under .500 on the season with a .332 or worse against-the-spread record are 63-32 ATS following a bye week, including 37-9 ATS as underdogs of six or more points. Los Angeles is a money-burning 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 home games, 3-10-1 ATS in its last fourteen games as a favorite, 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in its previous five November affairs. The Chargers are 3-16 ATS in games decided by eight or fewer points dating back to 2019, with all seven losses this season coming by eight or fewer points.
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#28
continued


With winless NFL underdogs of six or more points with rest standing at 17-4 ATS from Game Five out since 1990, grab the points with the Jets and invest with confidence.Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Analysis: Indianapolis opened as a 2.5-point home underdog in this game before the betting market was flooded with Colts' money, driving the line 4.5-points in the other direction. My math model favors Green Bay in this game and the Packers are 5-1 SU and ATS as road underdogs under head coach Matt LaFleur.

Green Bay has covered the spread in four of its five road games this season and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown for at least 280 yards and three touchdowns in each of the past four games. Rodgers leads the NFL with an 84.8 Total QBR this season and has three games with 300-plus passing yards and four-plus passing touchdowns.

Rodgers is averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt, which is his best mark since 2014. His 26 passing touchdowns already matches his total from last season. The Packers' prolific passing attack is relevant in that Indianapolis is just 18-26-2 ATS in competitively-priced home games (+3 to -3) versus teams averaging 32 or more passes per game.

Rodgers is 4-0 and averaging 296.5 pass yards per game with nine passing touchdowns in his past four games played at indoor stadiums. The Packers' offense is ranked in the top 5 in both passing success and explosiveness this season, while their ground attack is ninth in rushing success.

I also like the fact that Green Bay's defense ranks inside the top 10 in both rushing and passing explosiveness allowed. In other words, the Packers don't give up big plays and the Colts' one-dimensional offense is 28th in the league in rushing success. Do you really trust 39-year-old Philip Rivers to keep up with the Packers' multi-faceted attack?
Finally, Green Bay is 9-0 ATS since November 11, 2018 following a game in which it failed to cover the spread by seven or more points. Grab the points with the better team and invest with confidence.

DateExpertRatingGamePlayNov 22Oskeim Sports3%[NFL] (461) Green Bay Packers at (462) Indianapolis Colts

Time: 4:25 PM ESTGreen Bay Packers +1.5 (-110)
Nov 22Oskeim Sports4%[NFL] (453) Atlanta Falcons at (454) New Orleans Saints

Time: 1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans Saints -4.5 (-110)Analysis: Atlanta looks like a new team following the termination of Dan Quinn, going 3-1 under interim head coach Raheem Morris after losing five straight prior to Quinn's departure. However, the Falcons now face an elite New Orleans team that boasts one of the league's best defenses. The Saints' defense ranks 4th in yards per play allowed, 1st in rushing yards per attempt allowed and 12th in net yards per pass play allowed.

New Orleans enters off a 27-13 win over the 49ers in which they finished with a 52.1% DVOA from Football Outsiders, which is the second-highest single game of the Saints' season and the second-highest single game of Week 10. The Saints limited San Francisco to 4.3 yards per play with two interceptions and completely shut down the 49ers ground game (49 yards on 25 carries). According to Football Outsiders' advanced metrics, New Orleans has the second-best run defense in the NFL over the last 21 years.

In contrast, Atlanta enters tonight's game with the 22nd ranked defensive DVOA. The Falcons' stop unit is last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.5) and 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed (7.7). New Orleans won't have Drew Brees under center after he suffered multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung in last week's game against the 49ers. However, the Saints have a serviceable backup in Jameis Winston, who has 70 career NFL starts and led the league with 5,109 passing yards last season.

Winston is surrounded by one of the NFL’s best offensive minds in head coach Sean Payton and some of the league’s best offensive talent. Running back Alvin Kamara has a league-high 1,134 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns, while wide receiver Michael Thomas is healthy after winning last year’s Offensive Player of the Year award with an NFL-record 149 catches. Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook both create matchup problems for opposing defenses and Winston has the benefit of lining up behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines.

Winston had LASIK surgery during the offseason and arrived in New Orleans in the best shape of his life. His dedication has caught the attention of Brees and others. “This guy's here early, he stays late, he puts in a ton of time, and he's got the way that he watches film, breaks down film. He spends a ton of extra time after practice receiving additional reps, additional throws, really trying to master the game, master the position and this offense,” Brees said. “I appreciate that a lot about him."

Finally, New Orleans possesses significantly better special teams and the Saints have covered the Vegas number in four of the last five meetings in this series. Lay the small number with New Orleans and invest with confidence. Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#30
Big Al


4* Cowboys +7.5, 4:25 pm
3* Falcons +3.5, 1 pm
3* Texans +2.5, 1 pm
1* Broncos +3.5, 4:05 pm
1* Jets +10, 4:05 pm
1* Chiefs -7.5, 8:20 pm
1* Chiefs/Raiders 'under' 57, 8:20 pm
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#31
Marc Lawrence
NFL - 5* Game 457 - Patriots (-1.5) - 5* NFL GOM
Edges - Patriots: Head coach Bill Belichick 13-4 SU and 14-4 ATS with a losing record with Patriots in games with an Over/Under total of 40 or more points, including 9-0 ATS away when not favored by more than 6 points; and Belichick 6-0 ATS career with New England away with a losing record against foes that allow 102 or more rushing yards per game; and Belichick 11-0 SU and 7-3-1 ATS career versus sub .400 AFC North opponents … Texans: Head coach Romeo Crennel 1-10 SUATS career as a dog versus sub. 500 foes when coming off a non-division game, including 0-8 SUATS against foes with at least on-win on the season… We seal the deal with this from our powerful sports database as it notes that NFL non-division favorites in Game Ten of the season who were in the playoffs last season are 21-6-1 ATS since 2000 if the are coming off an ATS win off 11 or more points, including 4-0 SUATS if they sport a losing record. In addition the database notes that .444 or fewer NFL dogs coming off a loss in Game Ten of the season who won fewer than 11 games last season are 0-8 ATS if they are facing a foe that beat the spread by 3 or more points in its last game. With that, we recommend a 5* play on New England. Thank you and good luck as always.


Marc Lawrence
NFL - 3* Game 460 - Jaguars (+10.5)
Edges - Jaguars: 7-1-2 ATS versus AFC North opponents; and 7-2-1 ATS in this series … Steelers: 0-10-1 ATS off a double-digit home win versus sub .500 non-division opponents; and QB Ben Roethlisberger is 0-7 ATS in his NFL career as a double-digit favorite when Pittsburgh is coming off a double-digit win … We cement the deal with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any NFL non-division undefeated road favorite from Game Seven out if they are facing an avenging opponent that was not favored by 3 or more points in its last game if the Over/Under total in this game is 42 or more points. We do this because these teams are 16-0 ATS in this role since 1980 … With the Steelers off a division win over Cincinnati and having the Baltimore Ravens on deck, we recommend a strong 3* play on Jacksonville.
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#32
CIRCA CONTEST / LAS VEGAS - TOP 7


PRESENCE-2 6. FALCONS +4½ 9. PATRIOTS -2 20. COWBOYS +7 21. CHIEFS -8 23. DOLPHINS -3½

PRESENCE-1 6. FALCONS +4½ 9. PATRIOTS -2 21. CHIEFS -8 23. DOLPHINS -3½ 26. JETS +8½

Sheila's Boys-1 1. SEAHAWKS -3 9. PATRIOTS -2 12. JAGUARS +10 23. DOLPHINS -3½ 25. CHARGERS -8½

SUNNYSANDIEGO-1 8. LIONS +1½ 11. STEELERS -10 16. BENGALS +1½ 17. RAVENS -6 23. DOLPHINS -3½

CHICKENDINNER-1 7. PANTHERS -1½ 11. STEELERS -10 14. PACKERS +1½ 16. BENGALS +1½ 18. TITANS +6

PRESENCE-3 6. FALCONS +4½ 9. PATRIOTS -2 20. COWBOYS +7 21. CHIEFS -8 23. DOLPHINS -3½

818Madden-1 8. LIONS +1½ 14. PACKERS +1½ 18. TITANS +6 22. RAIDERS +8 23. DOLPHINS -3½
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#34
Marco D'Angelo

5%
[NFL] (457) New England Patriots at (458) Houston Texans

Time: 1:00 PM EST New England Patriots -130
Analysis:
5% NFL GAME OF THE MONTH - NEW ENGLAND (ML -130)


4%
[NFL] (475) Miami Dolphins at (476) Denver Broncos

Time: 4:05 PM EST Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-110)
Analysis:
4% MIAMI -3.5
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#35
Maddux

10 Tennessee +7
10 NY Jets +9
10 Kansas City -6.5
10 Philadelphia/Cleveland over 47
10 Philadelphia +3.5
10 Dallas/Minnesota over 48
10 NY Jets/LA Chargers over 46.5
5 teaser Houston +8.5/Green Bay +7.5
5 teaser Houston +8.5/Kansas City -1.5
5 teaser Green Bay +7.5/Kansas City -1.5
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#37
Pro Info Sports NFL GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT

Sunday November 22 – Monday November 23

PI NFL: 5.5-STAR Green Bay Packers +1.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
4:25est // The e-Power Ratings have a projected pt advantage of 6.9 pts. Our recommendation is to play the Green Bay Packers as a 5.5-Star TOP Play on Sunday.

PI NFL: 5-STAR Tennessee Titans +6 @ Baltimore Ravens
1est // The e-Power Ratings have a projected pt advantage of 1.3 pts. Our recommendation is to play the Tennessee Titans as a 5-Star TOP Play on Sunday.

PI NFL: 5-STAR New England Patriots -2 @ Houston Texans
1est // The e-Power Ratings have a projected pt advantage of 7.6 pts. Our recommendation is to play the New England Patriots as a 5-Star TOP Play on Sunday.
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#38
Eagles (3-5-1) @ Cleveland (6-3)
— Philly is 1-4-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-5-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this season.
— Eagles are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 156.5 rushing yards/game.
— Five of last seven Philly games stayed under the total.

— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 32.8 ppg in wins
— Cleveland won four of five home games, losing to the Raiders.
— Browns scored 10 or fewer points in three of last four games.
— Cleveland is 5-4-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last four games, Browns were outscored 47-23 in first half.

— Eagles won last five series games.
— Philly won last three visits here, last two 34-31OT/17-16.

Falcons (3-6) @ New Orleans (7-2)
Falcons won three of last four games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta scored 30.3 ppg in four games since the coaching change.
— Atlanta led six of its nine games at halftime.
— Falcon opponents converted only 15 of last 46 third down plays.
— Atlanta is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog, 3-1 TY.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Brees has fractured ribs/lung issues; Winston/Hill will split QB duties.
— New Orleans won its last six games, by 6-3-3-3-35-14 points.
— Saints allowed 20.3 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
— New Orleans won four of five home games, winning by 11-3-3-14 points.
— Saints are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.

— Saints won four of last five series games.
— Teams split last six series games played here; all three Saints wins were by 10+.

Lions (4-5) @ Carolina (3-7)
— Detroit lost its last two games, giving up 41-34 points.
— Lions allowed 487-464 yards in their last two games.
— Detroit is +6 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Lions are 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.
— Detroit was outrushed 483-263 in its last three games.
— Last three Lion games went over the total.

— PJ Walker gets nod at QB if Bridgewater (thumb) can’t play.
— Carolina lost its last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg.
— Panthers lost four of their five home games SU this year.
— Carolina lost four five home games, allowing 29.8 ppg.
— Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in their last three games.

— Carolina won seven of nine series games.
— Lions lost four of five visits here, with win in 1999.

Patriots (4-5) @ Houston (2-7)
— New England won its last two games, running ball for 159-173 yards.
— Patriots lost three of four road games, with win 30-27 over the Jets.
— New England trailed at halftime in five of its last six games.
— NE turned ball over 14 times in first six games, once in last three games.
— Last 4+ years, Patriots are 21-13-1 ATS as a road favorite, 0-1 TY.
— Three of their last four road games went over the total.

— Texans lost three of last four games; both their wins TY are over Jacksonville.
— Texans lost three of four home games, with losses by 7-8-15 points.
— Houston are 0-6 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans’ last two games were decided by total of five points.
— Under is 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.
— Texans are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.

— Patriots won 10 of 12 series games, but lost 28-22 to Houston LY.
— Average total in last four series games is 54.0
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Steelers (9-0) @ Jacksonville (1-7)
— Steelers won first nine games (7-2 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is 4-0 on road; last three road wins were by 4-3-5 points.
— Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
— Steelers are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Pittsburgh is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
— In their last five games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards four times.
— Pittsburgh plays the Ravens on Thanksgiving; will they look ahead?

— Jaguars lost last eight games, but covered last two.
— Jaguars’ last two losses were by total of six points.
— Jacksonville gave up 31.3 ppg in their last eight games.
— Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Jacksonville has allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in every game this year.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-7-1 ATS.

— Pittsburgh won four of last six series games.
— Steelers won five of last six visits here, winning last three, by 5-8-4 points.
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#39
Packers (7-2) @ Indianapolis (6-3)
— Green Bay won/covered four of its five road games this year.
— Packers scored 30+ points in six of their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 53-110 third down plays (48.2%)
— Packers are 6-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Five of last six Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in second half of their last six games.

— Colts are 5-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won three of four home games, losing to Baltimore.
— Colts played last Thursday, so they’ve had a mini-bye since then.
— Indy is 11-7-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— AFC South teams are 8-15 ATS outside their division.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.

— Colts won three of last four series games, winning last two 30-27/31-26.
— Average total in last six series games: 61.2.
— Packers lost last four visits here, by 27-3-14-3 points.

Bengals (2-6-1) @ Washington (2-7)
— Bengals lost four of last five games, but covered three of last four.
— Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS overall this season.
— Bengals are 0-4-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26 points.
— Cincy is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— Bengals led at halftime in four of their last five games.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.

— Washington lost its seven of last eight games, last two by 3-3 points.
— Smith threw for 715 yards the last two weeks; last week was his first start since he shattered his leg in 2018.
— Washington is 0-5 outside the division, losing by 15-14-15-20-3 points.
— Washington is 2-3 SU at home, losing by 14-20-3 points.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.

— Cincinnati is 3-0-1 in last four series games.
— Last meeting ended in a 27-27 tie in London, four years ago.
— Bengals lost three of their five visits here, winning last one 38-31 in ’12.

Tennessee (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)
— Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of its last four games.
— Titans are 2-3 in their last five games, after a 4-0 start.
— Titans were outscored 78-48 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— This is Tennessee’s 2nd road game since September.
— Over is 5-2-1 in Titans’ last eight games.
— Titans are 7-6 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Baltimore lost two of last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23 in losses.
— Baltimore split its four home games SU this year.
— Under is 6-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 14-6-2 ATS outside their division.
— Ravens are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-2 TY.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Titans won three of last four visits here, winning 28-12 in a playoff game here LY.

Cowboys (2-7) @ Minnesota (4-5)
— Cowboys were outscored 110-41 in losing last four games; Andy Dalton is expected to be back under center for Dallas.
— Last eight games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 1-8 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys are 0-5 SU on road, losing by 3-7-22-14 points.
— Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Vikings are 3-0 since their bye, running ball for 182.3 ypg.
— Minnesota covered six of its last seven games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, two in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Minnesota is 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Vikings are 3-0 SU when they allow fewer than 27 points.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Cowboys lost five of last six visits to Minnesota, winning 17-15 in last one, in ’16.
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#40
Miami (6-3) @ Denver (3-6)
— Dolphins won/covered their last five games, scoring 31.6 ppg.
— Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of four of those five games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in four of six wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami won three of four road games, losing season opener 21-11 in Foxboro.
— Dolphins are a road favorite for first time since Week 2 of 2017.
— In last three games, Miami has two defensive TD’s, a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt where they got the ball on the 1-yard line.

— Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in seven of their last eight games.
— Denver lost three of four home games, losing by 2-18-27 points.
— Broncos are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 2-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Denver turned ball over 11 times (-7) in their last four games.

— Miami is 10-3-1 in last 14 series games, but lost two of last three.
— Teams are 4-4-1 in games played here; Dolphins’ last visit was 2014.

Jets (0-9) @ LA Chargers (2-7)
— Winless Jets are 2-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26 points.
— Jets are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog this year, losing by 10-19-24-26 points.
— Jets have been outscored 49-7 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— Flacco is expected to get another start in place of injured starter Darnold.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-8 ATS.

— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-16 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost seven of last eight games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Last six Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— In last four games, LA scored 18 TD’s on 57 drives; the rookie QB is good.
— In their last six games, Chargers gave up 31.3 ppg.

— Chargers won last three series games by combined score of 72-24.
— Jets won four of last six visits to San Diego; last one was in 2014.

Chiefs (8-1) @ Las Vegas (6-3)
— Chiefs won their last four games, covering three of them.
— Kansas City won all four road games this year, covering three of them.
— Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Chiefs covered five of last six post-bye games.
— Divisional home underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the NFL this year.

— Las Vegas won/covered four of their last five games overall.
— Raiders scored 31+ points in five of six wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas split their four home games SU.
— Raiders converted 19 of their last 37 third down plays.
— Seven of nine Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 7-8-2 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.

— Raiders (+11.5) upset Chiefs 40-32 at Arrowhead in Week 5; the team buses took a victory lap around stadium on their way to the airport, stirring the pot somewhat.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 12 series games, four of last five in Oakland.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
31,657
Messages
109,574
Members
1,288
Latest member
Kevin